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Compare traders
Two to four tracked traders side by side: their record on consensus markets, where they are strongest, what prices they buy at, how often they side with the consensus and the markets they hold together right now.
| flow-trader-at-optiver | sainttroplay | BreakTheBank | RN1 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Record (consensus markets) | 25% (447–1350, n=1797) | 71% (10–4, n=14) | 45% (537–650, n=1187) | 48% (12896–14023, n=26919) |
| Consensus PnL | $27K | $4.4M | $10.6M | $13.4M |
| Tracked as | Hand-picked | was PM monthly #11 | PM monthly #1 | PM monthly #24 + pinned |
| Sides with the consensus | 74% (23 of 31 open) | no open consensus position | 81% (58 of 72 open) | 59% (16 of 27 open) |
| Strongest topics |
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| Weakest topic | — | — | — | — |
| Settled positions, side won | 90% of 3819 at avg 86¢, ROI +3% | 100% of 10 at avg 49¢, ROI +52% | 98% of 539 at avg 53¢, ROI +41% | 94% of 24664 at avg 58¢, ROI +35% |
| Entries under 30¢ | 8% (won 20% of 313) | 0% | 10% (won 85% of 53) | 10% (won 56% of 2534) |
| Entries 30–50¢ | 3% (won 64% of 119) | 50% (won 100% of 5) | 36% (won 98% of 192) | 22% (won 94% of 5497) |
| Entries 50–70¢ | 4% (won 78% of 171) | 50% (won 100% of 5) | 35% (won 99% of 187) | 36% (won 99% of 8897) |
| Entries 70¢ and up | 84% (won 99% of 3216) | 0% | 20% (won 100% of 107) | 31% (won 100% of 7736) |
Records and specialties count consensus markets only and run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Edge = how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied.
Markets they hold together now
5 on the same side, 1 on opposite sides. Opposite sides first.
| Market | flow-trader-at-optiver | sainttroplay | BreakTheBank | RN1 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House opposite sides · consensus No | Yes $21 | — | No $250K | — |
| Spread: Commanders (-6.5) same side · consensus Commanders | — | — | Commanders $161K | Commanders $433 |
| Will the Republicans win the Iowa Senate race in 2026? same side · consensus No | No $4 | — | No $112K | — |
| Spread: Commanders (-4.5) same side · consensus Commanders | — | — | Commanders $32K | Commanders $125 |
| Will Mary Peltola win the Alaska Senate race in 2026? same side · consensus Yes | No $43 | — | No $26K | — |
| Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? same side · consensus Yes | Yes $14 | — | Yes $14K | — |