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PolyConsensus
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Compare traders

Two to four tracked traders side by side: their record on consensus markets, where they are strongest, what prices they buy at, how often they side with the consensus and the markets they hold together right now.

Traders side by side
iWasEnoughBreakTheBank
Record (consensus markets)55% (5265–4237, n=9502)45% (542–652, n=1194)
Consensus PnL$37K$10.6M
Tracked asPM monthly #335PM monthly #1
Sides with the consensus62% (64 of 103 open)90% (147 of 163 open)
Strongest topicsnot computed yet
  • NFL +51 pts n=134, ROI +50%
  • NBA +49 pts n=93, ROI +48%
  • Soccer +40 pts n=279, ROI +38%
Weakest topic——
Settled positions, side won—97% of 552 at avg 53¢, ROI +41%
Entries under 30¢—10% (won 82% of 56)
Entries 30–50¢—36% (won 98% of 198)
Entries 50–70¢—35% (won 99% of 191)
Entries 70¢ and up—19% (won 100% of 107)

Records and specialties count consensus markets only and run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Edge = how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied.

Markets they hold together now

7 on the same side, 3 on opposite sides. Opposite sides first.

MarketiWasEnoughBreakTheBank
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?
opposite sides · consensus Yes
Yes $5No $202K
Will the Republicans win the Iowa Senate race in 2026?
opposite sides · consensus Yes
Yes $3No $114K
Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026?
opposite sides · consensus Yes
Yes $4No $30K
Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?
same side · consensus No
Yes $104Yes $85K
Will the Democrats win the Iowa Senate race in 2026?
same side · consensus Yes
Yes $8Yes $81K
Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026?
same side · consensus No
Yes $1.0KYes $31K
Will Dan Sullivan win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?
same side · consensus No
Yes $168Yes $29K
Will the Buffalo Bills win the 2027 NFL league championship?
same side · consensus Yes
Yes $6Yes $22K
Will Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2027 NBA Finals?
same side · consensus Yes
Yes $11Yes $15K
Will the Green Bay Packers win the 2027 NFL league championship?
same side · consensus Yes
Yes $1Yes $2.6K