Skip to content

Database problems: some data is degraded. We're fixing it right now.

Details
PolyConsensus
← Traders

Compare traders

Two to four tracked traders side by side: their record on consensus markets, where they are strongest, what prices they buy at, how often they side with the consensus and the markets they hold together right now.

Traders side by side
joseph00677RN1S-Workstrgparking
Record (consensus markets)43% (10–13, n=23)48% (17938–19366, n=37304)75% (2542–853, n=3395)55% (835–691, n=1526)
Consensus PnL$3.3M$14.9M$3.8M$550K
Tracked asPM monthly #8PM monthly #32 + pinnedPM monthly #48PM monthly #664
Sides with the consensusno open consensus position58% (39 of 67 open)78% (7 of 9 open)50% (1 of 2 open)
Strongest topics
  • Esports +5 pts n=492, ROI +4%
  • MLB +4 pts n=308, ROI −2%
  • NBA +3 pts n=383, ROI +1%
none with 10+ settled
Weakest topic——Crypto −1 pts, n=46—
Settled positions, side won59% of 17 at avg 57¢, ROI +31%94% of 26124 at avg 59¢, ROI +35%75% of 2256 at avg 72¢, ROI +2%52% of 1460 at avg 51¢, ROI +1%
Entries under 30¢12% (won 0% of 2)10% (won 57% of 2594)6% (won 14% of 145)22% (won 16% of 314)
Entries 30–50¢6% (won 0% of 1)22% (won 94% of 5704)16% (won 48% of 367)27% (won 35% of 401)
Entries 50–70¢65% (won 73% of 11)35% (won 99% of 9204)23% (won 60% of 509)28% (won 62% of 410)
Entries 70¢ and up18% (won 67% of 3)33% (won 100% of 8622)55% (won 96% of 1235)23% (won 94% of 335)

Records and specialties count consensus markets only and run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Edge = how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied.

Markets they hold together now

1 on the same side, 2 on opposite sides. Opposite sides first.

Marketjoseph00677RN1S-Workstrgparking
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs T1 - Game 3 Winner
opposite sides · consensus Bilibili Gaming
——Bilibili Gaming $154KT1 $5
Jazz vs. Timberwolves: O/U 222.5
opposite sides · consensus Over
—Under $2.9KOver $44K—
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs T1 - Game 2 Winner
same side · consensus T1
——T1 $863KT1 $100K