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Compare traders
Two to four tracked traders side by side: their record on consensus markets, where they are strongest, what prices they buy at, how often they side with the consensus and the markets they hold together right now.
| lava-lava | BreakTheBank | 0x492442EaB586F242B53bDa933fD5dE859c8A3782-1766317541188 | joseph00677 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Record (consensus markets) | 42% (355–490, n=845) | 45% (542–652, n=1194) | 46% (131–154, n=285) | 53% (10–9, n=19) |
| Consensus PnL | $1.2M | $11.0M | -$6.6M | $5.6M |
| Tracked as | PM monthly #80 | PM monthly #1 | was PM monthly #715 | PM monthly #2 |
| Sides with the consensus | 52% (49 of 95 open) | 91% (150 of 165 open) | no open consensus position | no open consensus position |
| Strongest topics |
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| Weakest topic | Finance −15 pts, n=14 | — | College Basketball −12 pts, n=174 | — |
| Settled positions, side won | 40% of 843 at avg 38¢, ROI +2% | 97% of 552 at avg 53¢, ROI +41% | 49% of 1341 at avg 50¢, ROI −2% | 59% of 17 at avg 57¢, ROI +31% |
| Entries under 30¢ | 48% (won 7% of 403) | 10% (won 82% of 56) | 0% (won 17% of 6) | 12% (won 0% of 2) |
| Entries 30–50¢ | 16% (won 38% of 138) | 36% (won 98% of 198) | 42% (won 46% of 565) | 6% (won 0% of 1) |
| Entries 50–70¢ | 15% (won 69% of 125) | 35% (won 99% of 191) | 57% (won 51% of 766) | 65% (won 73% of 11) |
| Entries 70¢ and up | 21% (won 95% of 177) | 19% (won 100% of 107) | 0% (won 100% of 4) | 18% (won 67% of 3) |
Records and specialties count consensus markets only and run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Edge = how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied.
Markets they hold together now
2 on the same side, 2 on opposite sides. Opposite sides first.
| Market | lava-lava | BreakTheBank | 0x492442EaB586F242B53bDa933fD5dE859c8A3782-1766317541188 | joseph00677 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Republicans lose the Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas Senate seats? opposite sides · consensus No | Yes $3.1K | No $909K | — | — |
| Will the Republican Party hold 47 or fewer Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections? opposite sides · consensus Yes | Yes $5.3K | No $129 | — | — |
| Will Dan Sullivan win the Alaska Senate race in 2026? same side · consensus No | Yes $2.6K | Yes $29K | — | — |
| Will Mary Peltola win the Alaska Senate race in 2026? same side · consensus Yes | No $1.5K | No $25K | — | — |