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Compare traders
Two to four tracked traders side by side: their record on consensus markets, where they are strongest, what prices they buy at, how often they side with the consensus and the markets they hold together right now.
| notgoodluck | RN1 | sainttroplay | BreakTheBank | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Record (consensus markets) | 63% (211–125, n=336) | 48% (12930–14106, n=27036) | 71% (10–4, n=14) | 45% (537–650, n=1187) |
| Consensus PnL | -$43K | $13.4M | $4.4M | $10.6M |
| Tracked as | PM monthly #685 | PM monthly #24 + pinned | was PM monthly #11 | PM monthly #1 |
| Sides with the consensus | 85% (17 of 20 open) | 58% (7 of 12 open) | no open consensus position | 85% (53 of 62 open) |
| Strongest topics |
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| Weakest topic | Soccer −7 pts, n=94 | — | — | — |
| Settled positions, side won | 60% of 357 at avg 59¢, ROI −3% | 94% of 24664 at avg 58¢, ROI +35% | 100% of 10 at avg 49¢, ROI +52% | 98% of 539 at avg 53¢, ROI +41% |
| Entries under 30¢ | 16% (won 14% of 56) | 10% (won 56% of 2534) | 0% | 10% (won 85% of 53) |
| Entries 30–50¢ | 20% (won 36% of 72) | 22% (won 94% of 5497) | 50% (won 100% of 5) | 36% (won 98% of 192) |
| Entries 50–70¢ | 29% (won 62% of 103) | 36% (won 99% of 8897) | 50% (won 100% of 5) | 35% (won 99% of 187) |
| Entries 70¢ and up | 35% (won 92% of 126) | 31% (won 100% of 7736) | 0% | 20% (won 100% of 107) |
Records and specialties count consensus markets only and run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Edge = how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied.
Markets they hold together now
2 on the same side, 2 on opposite sides. Opposite sides first.
| Market | notgoodluck | RN1 | sainttroplay | BreakTheBank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026? opposite sides · consensus Yes | Yes $7.1K | — | — | No $34K |
| Will Mary Peltola win the Alaska Senate race in 2026? opposite sides · consensus Yes | Yes $3.6K | — | — | No $26K |
| Eagles vs. Commanders same side · consensus Commanders | — | Commanders $27K | — | Commanders $1.1M |
| 2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House same side · consensus Yes | Yes $3.5K | — | — | Yes $170K |