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Compare traders

Two to four tracked traders side by side: their record on consensus markets, where they are strongest, what prices they buy at, how often they side with the consensus and the markets they hold together right now.

Traders side by side
segment300gringo00BreakTheBankprimm
Record (consensus markets)60% (12–8, n=20)75% (6–2, n=8)45% (537–650, n=1187)50% (986–968, n=1954)
Consensus PnL-$64K$3.5M$10.6M$3.4M
Tracked aswas PM monthly #832was PM monthly #19PM monthly #1PM monthly #181
Sides with the consensus76% (13 of 17 open)no open consensus position85% (52 of 61 open)50% (3 of 6 open)
Strongest topicsnone with 10+ settlednone with 10+ settled
  • NFL +50 pts n=123, ROI +50%
  • NBA +49 pts n=93, ROI +48%
  • Soccer +41 pts n=277, ROI +38%
Weakest topic————
Settled positions, side won87% of 15 at avg 82¢, ROI −7%86% of 7 at avg 59¢, ROI +25%98% of 539 at avg 53¢, ROI +41%99% of 883 at avg 50¢, ROI +51%
Entries under 30¢0%0%10% (won 85% of 53)5% (won 93% of 43)
Entries 30–50¢7% (won 0% of 1)0%36% (won 98% of 192)41% (won 99% of 366)
Entries 50–70¢13% (won 50% of 2)100% (won 86% of 7)35% (won 99% of 187)49% (won 99% of 433)
Entries 70¢ and up80% (won 100% of 12)0%20% (won 100% of 107)5% (won 100% of 41)

Records and specialties count consensus markets only and run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Edge = how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied.

Markets they hold together now

1 on the same side, 5 on opposite sides. Opposite sides first.

Marketsegment300gringo00BreakTheBankprimm
Eagles vs. Commanders
opposite sides · consensus Commanders
——Commanders $1.1MEagles $2.7K
Spread: Commanders (-4.5)
opposite sides · consensus Commanders
——Commanders $44KEagles $1.3K
Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026?
opposite sides · consensus No
No $746—Yes $36K—
Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026?
opposite sides · consensus Yes
Yes $2.1K—No $34K—
Will Dan Sullivan win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?
opposite sides · consensus No
No $2.2K—Yes $30K—
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House
same side · consensus Yes
Yes $2.1K—Yes $170K—