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Compare traders
Two to four tracked traders side by side: their record on consensus markets, where they are strongest, what prices they buy at, how often they side with the consensus and the markets they hold together right now.
| stupid22 | BreakTheBank | sainttroplay | primm | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Record (consensus markets) | 95% (306–15, n=321) | 45% (526–640, n=1166) | 71% (10–4, n=14) | 50% (941–941, n=1882) |
| Consensus PnL | -$106K | $10.6M | $4.4M | $3.4M |
| Tracked as | was PM monthly #268 + pinned | PM monthly #1 | was PM monthly #11 | PM monthly #181 |
| Sides with the consensus | 94% (31 of 33 open) | 72% (73 of 102 open) | no open consensus position | 70% (14 of 20 open) |
| Strongest topics |
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| ||
| Weakest topic | Geopolitics −7 pts, n=87 | — | — | — |
| Settled positions, side won | 96% of 373 at avg 95¢, ROI −1% | 98% of 539 at avg 53¢, ROI +41% | 100% of 10 at avg 49¢, ROI +52% | 99% of 883 at avg 50¢, ROI +51% |
| Entries under 30¢ | 2% (won 50% of 6) | 10% (won 85% of 53) | 0% | 5% (won 93% of 43) |
| Entries 30–50¢ | 0% | 36% (won 98% of 192) | 50% (won 100% of 5) | 41% (won 99% of 366) |
| Entries 50–70¢ | 1% (won 75% of 4) | 35% (won 99% of 187) | 50% (won 100% of 5) | 49% (won 99% of 433) |
| Entries 70¢ and up | 97% (won 97% of 363) | 20% (won 100% of 107) | 0% | 5% (won 100% of 41) |
Records and specialties count consensus markets only and run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Edge = how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied.
Markets they hold together now
1 on the same side, 3 on opposite sides. Opposite sides first.
| Market | stupid22 | BreakTheBank | sainttroplay | primm |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread: Bills (-3.5) opposite sides · consensus Ravens | — | Bills $51K | — | Ravens $696 |
| 2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House opposite sides · consensus No | No $9.9K | Yes $1.1K | — | — |
| Spread: Bills (-2.5) opposite sides · consensus Ravens | — | Bills $2.1K | — | Ravens $376 |
| Spread: Cowboys (-6.5) same side · consensus Cowboys | — | Cardinals $3.0K | — | Cardinals $1.1K |