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Compare traders
Two to four tracked traders side by side: their record on consensus markets, where they are strongest, what prices they buy at, how often they side with the consensus and the markets they hold together right now.
| thebug44 | BreakTheBank | beachboy4 | primm | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Record (consensus markets) | 38% (55–90, n=145) | 45% (537–650, n=1187) | 68% (43–20, n=63) | 50% (985–968, n=1953) |
| Consensus PnL | $185K | $10.6M | $5.8M | $3.4M |
| Tracked as | was PM monthly #989 | PM monthly #1 | was PM monthly #24 | PM monthly #181 |
| Sides with the consensus | 80% (16 of 20 open) | 85% (56 of 66 open) | 100% (2 of 2 open) | 100% (1 of 1 open) |
| Strongest topics |
| |||
| Weakest topic | NFL ±0 pts, n=14 | — | NBA −6 pts, n=92 | — |
| Settled positions, side won | 45% of 101 at avg 35¢, ROI +12% | 98% of 539 at avg 53¢, ROI +41% | 57% of 212 at avg 54¢, ROI +3% | 99% of 883 at avg 50¢, ROI +51% |
| Entries under 30¢ | 49% (won 14% of 49) | 10% (won 85% of 53) | 3% (won 17% of 6) | 5% (won 93% of 43) |
| Entries 30–50¢ | 20% (won 65% of 20) | 36% (won 98% of 192) | 29% (won 56% of 62) | 41% (won 99% of 366) |
| Entries 50–70¢ | 21% (won 76% of 21) | 35% (won 99% of 187) | 54% (won 51% of 115) | 49% (won 99% of 433) |
| Entries 70¢ and up | 11% (won 82% of 11) | 20% (won 100% of 107) | 14% (won 86% of 29) | 5% (won 100% of 41) |
Records and specialties count consensus markets only and run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Edge = how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied.
Markets they hold together now
2 on the same side, 1 on opposite sides. Opposite sides first.
| Market | thebug44 | BreakTheBank | beachboy4 | primm |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026? opposite sides · consensus Yes | Yes $2.9K | No $34K | — | — |
| Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? same side · consensus Yes | Yes $9.6K | Yes $14K | — | — |
| Will Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2027 NBA Finals? same side · consensus Yes | Yes $41 | Yes $15K | — | — |