Israel and Lebanon normalize relations before 2027?

8 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold No (62%) · No at 94¢ · $24K held · ends Jan 1, 2027

Yes6¢No94¢Ends Fri, Jan 1, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

🔬

Research candidate

Consensus Traders

No 62%

Total Value

$23.5K

Combined PnL

$3.1K

Smart Money Entry

76.5¢ → 93.8¢

+22% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

Research candidateNo at 94%

Matches a rule that looked positive after costs in the short windows of our Oct 22 2026 backtest. The full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found no evidence for any of these rules: out of sample they lost money or were noise. A label for a pattern that once looked good, not an edge and not a recommendation.

Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

8 of 13 top traders (62%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes6%

No94%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No8 traders

Total Value$22.9K

Total Shares24,453

Combined PnL+$4.2K

Yes5 traders

Total Value$613.36

Total Shares9,814

Combined PnL$-1.1K

No — 62%Yes — 38%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 93%

Freshness

Late

4875h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

62% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 93% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 50% · 6

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 4

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 4

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 58% · 12

Aligned

Top 1000No 80% · 5

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
DE denizz	Noavg 74.9¢	$12.2K	$15.2K	+$3.0K	68% 597-284 (881)
MEPP	Noavg 80¢	$5.2K	$6.1K	+$893.75	64% 633-352 (985)
KR Krass	Noavg 68.6¢	$479.98	$656.22	+$176.24	74% 452-155 (607)
aenews2CTR	Yesavg 22.3¢	$1.3K	$372.68	-$958.17	60% 1773-1174 (2947)
TH thoodr	Noavg 93.5¢	$369.3	$370.25	+$0.95	96% 631-24 (655)
tetrase	Noavg 90¢	$180	$187.5	+$7.5	61% 839-544 (1383)
TT tttt123	Noavg 84.2¢	$168.72	$187.5	+$18.78	72% 1535-585 (2120)
ME melganis	Noavg 73¢	$146	$187.5	+$41.5	75% 1597-541 (2138)
NadmiCTR	Yesavg 2¢	$40	$125	+$85	47% 2036-2278 (4314)
Trading4FridgeCTR	Yesavg 18¢	$238.68	$82.88	-$155.81	58% 928-661 (1589)
studmuffin6969<$100	Noavg 88¢	$21.65	$23.06	+$1.41	59% 1027-717 (1744)
debasedCTR<$100	Yesavg 16¢	$51.98	$20.3	-$31.67	58% 2317-1682 (3999)
ScottyNoooCTR<$100	Yesavg 25¢	$49.99	$12.5	-$37.5	50% 1537-1513 (3050)

denizz

Invested

$12,201.27

Value

$15.2K

PnL

+$3.0K

Record

68%

597-284 (881)

MEPP

Invested

$5,200

Value

$6.1K

PnL

+$893.75

Record

64%

633-352 (985)

Krass

Invested

$479.98

Value

$656.22

PnL

+$176.24

Record

74%

452-155 (607)

aenews2CTR

Yes

Invested

$1,330.86

Value

$372.68

PnL

-$958.17

Record

60%

1773-1174 (2947)

thoodr

Invested

$369.3

Value

$370.25

PnL

+$0.95

Record

96%

631-24 (655)

tetrase

Invested

$180

Value

$187.5

PnL

+$7.5

Record

61%

839-544 (1383)

tttt123

Invested

$168.72

Value

$187.5

PnL

+$18.78

Record

72%

1535-585 (2120)

melganis

Invested

$146

Value

$187.5

PnL

+$41.5

Record

75%

1597-541 (2138)

NadmiCTR

Yes

Invested

$40

Value

$125

PnL

+$85

Record

47%

2036-2278 (4314)

Trading4FridgeCTR

Yes

Invested

$238.68

Value

$82.88

PnL

-$155.81

Record

58%

928-661 (1589)

studmuffin6969<$100

Invested

$21.65

Value

$23.06

PnL

+$1.41

Record

59%

1027-717 (1744)

debasedCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$51.98

Value

$20.3

PnL

-$31.67

Record

58%

2317-1682 (3999)

ScottyNoooCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$49.99

Value

$12.5

PnL

-$37.5

Record

50%

1537-1513 (3050)

Research grade

Research candidateNo at 94%

Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

8 of 13 top traders (62%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 93%

Freshness

Late

4875h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

62% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 93% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 50% · 6

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 4

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 4

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 58% · 12

Aligned

Top 1000No 80% · 5

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance94.8%

93.8¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + no taker fee. Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$5.54

Max Loss

-$100.00

105.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.