Consensus PnL $34K · win rate 56% (251–194, n=445) · PM monthly #819 · holds 24 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$33.9K
Record
251W / 194L
Win Rate
56.0%
of 445 settled
Batting Avg
23.1%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#907
Source
PM monthly #819
Record (90 d)
57/71 · 80%
Trades
606
Markets
496
Volume
$371.4K
Loading this trader’s full history
Large accounts take up to ~20 s
Loading positions and trades…
Top consensus positions
24 in listed consensus markets · 21 of 24 on the consensus side (88%)- Will Chiang Wan-an win the next Taipei Mayor election?Yes $2.8K · now 70¢ · in at 67¢with the consensus (53% of 55)
- Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?No $1.3K · now 97¢ · in at 75¢with the consensus (83% of 72)
- Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before December 31, 2026?No $975 · now 97¢ · in at 82¢with the consensus (56% of 34)
- Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia before 2027?No $956 · now 94¢ · in at 90¢with the consensus (83% of 18)
- Zhang Youxia sentenced to prison before 2027?No $915 · now 92¢ · in at 81¢with the consensus (83% of 6)
- NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?No $875 · now 89¢ · in at 78¢with the consensus (58% of 51)
- Will Trump meet with Flávio Bolsonaro in 2026?No $740 · now 71¢ · in at 70¢with the consensus (80% of 15)
- Will Su Chiao-hui win the next New Taipei Mayor election?Yes $600 · now 61¢ · in at 56¢against the consensus (No)
Specialties
268 settled consensus markets · held side won 85% at an average entry of 68¢- Soccer
+31 pts
side won 95% of 37 · avg entry 64¢
ROI +27%
- Elections
+19 pts
side won 79% of 101 · avg entry 60¢
ROI +27%
- Geopolitics
+6 pts
side won 89% of 44 · avg entry 83¢
ROI +8%
Weakest: Weather — held side won 60% of 10 at an average 62¢ entry (−2 pts against the price), ROI +1%.
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 8%(won 36% of 22)
- 30–50¢: 10%(won 75% of 28)
- 50–70¢: 29%(won 83% of 78)
- 70¢ and up: 52%(won 95% of 140)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.