Zhang Youxia sentenced to prison before 2027?

7 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold No (64%) · No at 90¢ · $9K held · ends Jan 1, 2027

Yes11¢No89¢Ends Fri, Jan 1, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Consensus Traders

No 64%

Total Value

$9.2K

Combined PnL

$1.8K

Smart Money Entry

70.7¢ → 89.5¢

+27% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

AvoidNo at 90%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Culture / mentionsFull year, out of sample: culture lost −4.0 % a trade (n 1,214, 95 % CI −9.7 to +2.0); Oct 22 backtest: −7.1 % and −15.4 % in its two windows.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 11 top traders (64%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes11%

No90%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No7 traders

Total Value$9.1K

Total Shares9,997

Combined PnL+$1.8K

Yes4 traders

Total Value$57.26

Total Shares628

Combined PnL-$23.71

No — 64%Yes — 36%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-24 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 60%

Freshness

Late

4981h old

Flip Quality

Watch

2 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

64% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 60% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrNo 60% · 5

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 50% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000No 63% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
xxNyx	Noavg 68.8¢	$2.6K	$3.2K	+$616.82	82% 1823-408 (2231)
0X 0xc7D02944A76B9F83B199e9090ECC92C82d241F8a-1776944395495	Noavg 71.7¢	$2.0K	$2.3K	+$430.63	56% 18852-15018 (33870)
10 101456	Noavg 60¢	$785.02	$1.1K	+$364.25	52% 152-142 (294)
0X 0x8f6970acd7c9466fc1d09a7c17071705c8e52923-1792437064758	No	$963.69	$963.69	+$331.76	52% 164-153 (317)
DS dsoperative	Noavg 81¢	$825.01	$915.01	+$90	58% 262-188 (450)
bigshort	Noavg 81.2¢	$461.69	$520.42	+$58.73	84% 366-72 (438)
Haradwaith	Noavg 88.4¢	$1.0K	$77.42	-$106.51	40% 6684-10176 (16860)
RO rocky42019CTR<$100	Yesavg 20.4¢	$42.37	$25.95	-$16.43	42% 1963-2686 (4649)
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR	Yesavg 17.2¢	$961.2	$20.22	-$6.16	33% 20011-40834 (60845)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Yesavg 11.7¢	$27.14	$9.44	-$0.83	58% 23579-16943 (40522)
LornaPredictsCTR<$100	Yesavg 10¢	$1.94	$1.65	-$0.29	19% 2981-12794 (15775)

xxNyx

Invested

$2,631.7

Value

$3.2K

PnL

+$616.82

Record

82%

1823-408 (2231)

0xc7D02944A76B9F83B199e9090ECC92C82d241F8a-1776944395495

Invested

$1,977.73

Value

$2.3K

PnL

+$430.63

Record

56%

18852-15018 (33870)

101456

Invested

$785.02

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$364.25

Record

52%

152-142 (294)

0x8f6970acd7c9466fc1d09a7c17071705c8e52923-1792437064758

Invested

$963.69

Value

$963.69

PnL

+$331.76

Record

52%

164-153 (317)

dsoperative

Invested

$825.01

Value

$915.01

PnL

+$90

Record

58%

262-188 (450)

bigshort

Invested

$461.69

Value

$520.42

PnL

+$58.73

Record

84%

366-72 (438)

Haradwaith

Invested

$1,029.09

Value

$77.42

PnL

-$106.51

Record

40%

6684-10176 (16860)

rocky42019CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$42.37

Value

$25.95

PnL

-$16.43

Record

42%

1963-2686 (4649)

xtxpleasecallmeCTR

Yes

Invested

$961.2

Value

$20.22

PnL

-$6.16

Record

33%

20011-40834 (60845)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$27.14

Value

$9.44

PnL

-$0.83

Record

58%

23579-16943 (40522)

LornaPredictsCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.94

Value

$1.65

PnL

-$0.29

Record

19%

2981-12794 (15775)

Research grade

AvoidNo at 90%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Culture / mentionsFull year, out of sample: culture lost −4.0 % a trade (n 1,214, 95 % CI −9.7 to +2.0); Oct 22 backtest: −7.1 % and −15.4 % in its two windows.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 11 top traders (64%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-24 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 60%

Freshness

Late

4981h old

Flip Quality

Watch

2 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

64% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 60% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrNo 60% · 5

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 50% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000No 63% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance90.9%

89.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$9.97

Max Loss

-$100.00

110.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.