Zhang Youxia sentenced to prison before 2027?
5 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (83%) · No at 92¢ · $7K held · ends Jan 1, 2027
⚠️
Avoid
No
6
No 83%
$6.8K
$1.6K
68.7¢ → 91.5¢
+33% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
AvoidNo at 92%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Culture / mentionsFull year, out of sample: culture lost −4.0 % a trade (n 1,214, 95 % CI −9.7 to +2.0); Oct 22 backtest: −7.1 % and −15.4 % in its two windows.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 6 top traders (83%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 64%
Freshness
Late
4942h old
Flip Quality
Watch
2 consensus flips
83% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 64% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 xxNyx | Noavg 68.8¢ | $2.5K | $3.2K | +$703.38 | 82% 1817-404 (2221) |
10 101456 | Noavg 60¢ | $753.62 | $1.1K | +$395.65 | 52% 150-140 (290) |
0X 0x8f6970acd7c9466fc1d09a7c17071705c8e52923-1792437064758 | Noavg 60¢ | $631.93 | $963.69 | +$331.76 | 52% 160-150 (310) |
DS dsoperative | Noavg 81¢ | $810.01 | $915.01 | +$105 | 58% 262-188 (450) |
 bigshort | Noavg 81.2¢ | $461.69 | $520.42 | +$58.73 | 83% 364-72 (436) |
RO rocky42019CTR<$100 | Yesavg 20.4¢ | $42.37 | $25.95 | -$16.43 | 42% 1926-2640 (4566) |
xxNyxInvested
$2,487.73
Value
$3.2K
PnL
+$703.38
Record
82%
1817-404 (2221)
Invested
$753.62
Value
$1.1K
PnL
+$395.65
Record
52%
150-140 (290)
Invested
$631.93
Value
$963.69
PnL
+$331.76
Record
52%
160-150 (310)
Invested
$810.01
Value
$915.01
PnL
+$105
Record
58%
262-188 (450)
bigshortInvested
$461.69
Value
$520.42
PnL
+$58.73
Record
83%
364-72 (436)
Invested
$42.37
Value
$25.95
PnL
-$16.43
Record
42%
1926-2640 (4566)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
91.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.