Will Pete Hegseth leave the Trump administration before 2027?
12 of 16 top Polymarket traders hold No (75%) · No at 66¢ · $16K held · ends Jan 1, 2027
🔬
Research candidate
No
16
No 75%
$16.5K
-$62.84
67.2¢ → 65.5¢
-2% since entry · 12 traders
Research grade
Research candidateNo at 66%
Matches a rule that looked positive after costs in the short windows of our Oct 22 2026 backtest. The full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found no evidence for any of these rules: out of sample they lost money or were noise. A label for a pattern that once looked good, not an edge and not a recommendation.
- Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
12 of 16 top traders (75%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
12 traders
Top 2 hold 74%
Freshness
Late
4875h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
75% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 74% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 paddaa | Noavg 60.5¢ | $6.3K | $6.7K | +$390.72 | 56% 836-645 (1481) |
CO cowcatCTR | Yesavg 25¢ | $1.6K | $3.2K | +$321.25 | 53% 1560-1362 (2922) |
 Car | Noavg 79¢ | $2.4K | $1.9K | -$391.71 | 67% 4165-2026 (6191) |
 aenews2CTR | Yesavg 33.8¢ | $1.4K | $1.5K | +$31.53 | 60% 1773-1174 (2947) |
 StupidMonkeyyy | Noavg 77¢ | $1.6K | $1.4K | -$234.15 | 50% 147-145 (292) |
LA Lasting-Dessert | Noavg 76¢ | $637.58 | $549.49 | -$88.09 | 89% 563-67 (630) |
 vinii | Noavg 69.9¢ | $570.51 | $534.95 | -$35.56 | 74% 2792-1004 (3796) |
 Tenebrus7 | Noavg 73.1¢ | $245.13 | $219.49 | -$25.64 | 73% 2953-1072 (4025) |
 bernardbulletinCTR | Yesavg 35.8¢ | $246.83 | $217.27 | -$7.17 | 69% 987-450 (1437) |
 4751346 | Noavg 68.9¢ | $192.71 | $181.93 | -$10.78 | 72% 1257-483 (1740) |
NO nonkenny90<$100 | Noavg 78¢ | $94.38 | $79.26 | -$15.13 | 89% 4653-547 (5200) |
 Slowroasted<$100 | Noavg 67.6¢ | $42.15 | $40.85 | -$1.3 | 88% 1990-279 (2269) |
 ScottyNoooCTR<$100 | Yesavg 31¢ | $31 | $35 | +$3.5 | 50% 1537-1513 (3050) |
JE Jest55<$100 | Noavg 68¢ | $20.4 | $19.65 | -$0.75 | 75% 1028-338 (1366) |
 PMTraderAdam<$100 | Noavg 53¢ | $16.29 | $17.49 | +$1.2 | 77% 830-249 (1079) |
 TheKinginYellow<$100 | Noavg 75¢ | $6 | $5.24 | -$0.76 | 68% 830-398 (1228) |
paddaaInvested
$6,262.8
Value
$6.7K
PnL
+$390.72
Record
56%
836-645 (1481)
Invested
$1,622.99
Value
$3.2K
PnL
+$321.25
Record
53%
1560-1362 (2922)
CarInvested
$2,369.97
Value
$1.9K
PnL
-$391.71
Record
67%
4165-2026 (6191)
aenews2CTRInvested
$1,424.99
Value
$1.5K
PnL
+$31.53
Record
60%
1773-1174 (2947)
StupidMonkeyyyInvested
$1,591.51
Value
$1.4K
PnL
-$234.15
Record
50%
147-145 (292)
Invested
$637.58
Value
$549.49
PnL
-$88.09
Record
89%
563-67 (630)
viniiInvested
$570.51
Value
$534.95
PnL
-$35.56
Record
74%
2792-1004 (3796)
Tenebrus7Invested
$245.13
Value
$219.49
PnL
-$25.64
Record
73%
2953-1072 (4025)
bernardbulletinCTRInvested
$246.83
Value
$217.27
PnL
-$7.17
Record
69%
987-450 (1437)
4751346Invested
$192.71
Value
$181.93
PnL
-$10.78
Record
72%
1257-483 (1740)
Invested
$94.38
Value
$79.26
PnL
-$15.13
Record
89%
4653-547 (5200)
Slowroasted<$100Invested
$42.15
Value
$40.85
PnL
-$1.3
Record
88%
1990-279 (2269)
ScottyNoooCTR<$100Invested
$31
Value
$35
PnL
+$3.5
Record
50%
1537-1513 (3050)
Invested
$20.4
Value
$19.65
PnL
-$0.75
Record
75%
1028-338 (1366)
PMTraderAdam<$100Invested
$16.29
Value
$17.49
PnL
+$1.2
Record
77%
830-249 (1079)
TheKinginYellow<$100Invested
$6
Value
$5.24
PnL
-$0.76
Record
68%
830-398 (1228)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
65.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.