Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (96%). 5 of 12 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will Russia capture Lyman by December 31, 2026?
5 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (42%) · Yes at 4.5¢ · $11K held · ends Jan 1, 2027
⚠️
Avoid
Yes
12
Yes 42%
$10.8K
$-13.1K
52.2¢ → 4.5¢
-91% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
AvoidYes at 5%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 12 top traders (42%)Underdog side (market favors No 96%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 88%
Freshness
Late
3879h old
Flip Quality
Choppy
6 consensus flips
42% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 88% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GL Gladius7 | Noavg 58¢ | $2.6K | $4.6K | +$1.9K | 48% 90-98 (188) |
VO vovatoxic | Noavg 49¢ | $1,000 | $1.9K | +$948.98 | 49% 70-74 (144) |
 DumplingBMFCTR | Yesavg 60.3¢ | $15.0K | $1.1K | $-13.9K | 68% 1830-849 (2679) |
CO cocos228 | Noavg 47¢ | $485 | $986.49 | +$501.49 | 72% 68-27 (95) |
 DEGENKHAN | Noavg 91.6¢ | $779.97 | $798.21 | +$18.25 | 66% 1107-565 (1672) |
CO cocococococo | Noavg 43.6¢ | $298.54 | $653.44 | +$354.9 | 52% 1665-1535 (3200) |
 Bromley86CTR | Yesavg 50¢ | $3.2K | $302.8 | $-2.9K | 90% 728-80 (808) |
 NadmiCTR | Yesavg 4.4¢ | $170 | $174.37 | +$4.39 | 47% 2036-2278 (4314) |
NO nonkenny90 | Noavg 72¢ | $79.92 | $106.01 | +$26.09 | 89% 4653-547 (5200) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 92.4¢ | $87.05 | $88.97 | +$1.92 | 56% 14240-11046 (25286) |
BT BTCGambler247CTR | Yesavg 53¢ | $153.7 | $13.05 | -$140.65 | 47% 217-240 (457) |
 randomWalkingShrimpCTR<$100 | Yesavg 34.8¢ | $11 | $1.59 | -$9.41 | 77% 1204-366 (1570) |
Invested
$2,638.09
Value
$4.6K
PnL
+$1.9K
Record
48%
90-98 (188)
Invested
$1,000
Value
$1.9K
PnL
+$948.98
Record
49%
70-74 (144)
DumplingBMFCTRInvested
$14,991.36
Value
$1.1K
PnL
$-13.9K
Record
68%
1830-849 (2679)
Invested
$485
Value
$986.49
PnL
+$501.49
Record
72%
68-27 (95)
DEGENKHANInvested
$779.97
Value
$798.21
PnL
+$18.25
Record
66%
1107-565 (1672)
Invested
$298.54
Value
$653.44
PnL
+$354.9
Record
52%
1665-1535 (3200)
Bromley86CTRInvested
$3,218.57
Value
$302.8
PnL
$-2.9K
Record
90%
728-80 (808)
NadmiCTRInvested
$170
Value
$174.37
PnL
+$4.39
Record
47%
2036-2278 (4314)
Invested
$79.92
Value
$106.01
PnL
+$26.09
Record
89%
4653-547 (5200)
Invested
$87.05
Value
$88.97
PnL
+$1.92
Record
56%
14240-11046 (25286)
Invested
$153.7
Value
$13.05
PnL
-$140.65
Record
47%
217-240 (457)
randomWalkingShrimpCTR<$100Invested
$11
Value
$1.59
PnL
-$9.41
Record
77%
1204-366 (1570)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
4.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + no taker fee. Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.