Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (100%). 6 of 12 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will Republicans win Michigan and Texas, and lose Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, and Ohio?

6 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (50%) · Yes at 0.3¢ · $19K held · ends Nov 3

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Tue, Nov 3, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 50%

Total Value

$18.5K

Combined PnL

$-5.7K

Smart Money Entry

0.6¢ → 0.3¢

-60% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

6 of 12 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No6 traders

Total Value$11.3K

Total Shares11,283

Combined PnL-$0.53

Yes6 traders

Total Value$7.3K

Total Shares2,097,087

Combined PnL$-5.7K

No — 50%Yes — 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-27 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Late

66h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

62% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 80% · 5

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrYes 89% · 9

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 75% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 62% · 13

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
ArmageddonRewardsBilly	Noavg 99.8¢	$10.0K	$10.0K	+$0	56% 15545-12161 (27706)
BR BreakTheBankCTR	Yesavg 0.6¢	$12.9K	$7.1K	$-5.8K	44% 577-748 (1325)
QW qwen300.fund	Noavg 99.8¢	$798.89	$798.64	-$0.25	57% 8750-6642 (15392)
0X 0xfBd8C9C22cA76B3662d0e53A4f79719FDC684027-1779347618060	Noavg 99.8¢	$180.55	$180.55	-$0	54% 6297-5393 (11690)
AH aHjCz	Noavg 99.8¢	$143.12	$143.07	-$0.05	40% 5176-7803 (12979)
EL Elias.Thornwell	Noavg 99.9¢	$124.77	$124.52	-$0.25	77% 11706-3594 (15300)
SN SnapElectionAvoiderCTR	Yesavg 0.1¢	$185.22	$77.43	+$102.21	50% 1226-1243 (2469)
Gucky-45CTR<$100	Yes	$33.7	$33.7	-$12.63	32% 652-1414 (2066)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 99.7¢	$33.43	$33.45	+$0.02	57% 17417-12995 (30412)
88 881112CTR<$100	Yesavg 0.2¢	$20.39	$25.49	+$5.1	37% 568-949 (1517)
0X 0x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-1771870353938CTR<$100	Yes	$15.85	$15.85	+$0	45% 2378-2946 (5324)
AN ancianoCTR<$100	Yes	$7.68	$7.68	-$14.79	52% 1161-1068 (2229)

ArmageddonRewardsBilly

Invested

$9,975

Value

$10.0K

PnL

+$0

Record

56%

15545-12161 (27706)

BreakTheBankCTR

Yes

Invested

$12,921.9

Value

$7.1K

PnL

$-5.8K

Record

44%

577-748 (1325)

qwen300.fund

Invested

$798.89

Value

$798.64

PnL

-$0.25

Record

57%

8750-6642 (15392)

0xfBd8C9C22cA76B3662d0e53A4f79719FDC684027-1779347618060

Invested

$180.55

Value

$180.55

PnL

-$0

Record

54%

6297-5393 (11690)

aHjCz

Invested

$143.12

Value

$143.07

PnL

-$0.05

Record

40%

5176-7803 (12979)

Elias.Thornwell

Invested

$124.77

Value

$124.52

PnL

-$0.25

Record

77%

11706-3594 (15300)

SnapElectionAvoiderCTR

Yes

Invested

$185.22

Value

$77.43

PnL

+$102.21

Record

50%

1226-1243 (2469)

Gucky-45CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$33.7

Value

$33.7

PnL

-$12.63

Record

32%

652-1414 (2066)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$33.43

Value

$33.45

PnL

+$0.02

Record

57%

17417-12995 (30412)

881112CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$20.39

Value

$25.49

PnL

+$5.1

Record

37%

568-949 (1517)

0x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-1771870353938CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$15.85

Value

$15.85

PnL

+$0

Record

45%

2378-2946 (5324)

ancianoCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$7.68

Value

$7.68

PnL

-$14.79

Record

52%

1161-1068 (2229)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

6 of 12 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-27 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Late

66h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

62% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 80% · 5

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrYes 89% · 9

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 75% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 62% · 13

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.3%

0.3¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$7596.01

Max Loss

-$100.00

7696.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.