Orleans: Edas Butvilas vs Cosme Rolland De Ravel
11 of 15 top Polymarket traders hold Cosme Rolland De Ravel (73%) · Cosme Rolland De Ravel at 73¢ · $18K held · ends Nov 16
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Neutral
Cosme Rolland De Ravel
15
Cosme Rolland De Ravel 73%
1 arb excluded
$17.8K
-$501.56
64.7¢ → 72.5¢
+12% since entry · 11 traders
Research grade
NeutralCosme Rolland De Ravel at 73%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
11 of 15 top traders (73%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FE ferrariChampions2026 | Cosme Rolland De Ravelavg 73.1¢ | $9.9K | $9.9K | +$56.21 | 46% 33770-39445 (73215) |
OL OleocanthalCTR | Edas Butvilasavg 57.2¢ | $2.6K | $2.5K | -$54.81 | 51% 28-27 (55) |
 VeryLucky888 | Cosme Rolland De Ravelavg 40.5¢ | $1.2K | $1.3K | +$101.77 | 58% 53770-38280 (92050) |
38 38791873984189 | Cosme Rolland De Ravelavg 43.3¢ | $1.2K | $1.2K | +$463.99 | 48% 72152-77872 (150024) |
0X 0xBc43c8bfBC4d77c2FC9011adaD38Ba43b88996d3-1765231687816CTR | Edas Butvilasavg 58.2¢ | $1.8K | $1.1K | -$653.47 | 49% 591-612 (1203) |
VI vibing123CTR | Edas Butvilasavg 56.9¢ | $1.1K | $537.35 | -$573.77 | 51% 1783-1683 (3466) |
FL Flaznorp | Cosme Rolland De Ravelavg 48.5¢ | $227.96 | $328.68 | +$100.71 | 52% 49472-46424 (95896) |
TH thestingsnake | Cosme Rolland De Ravelavg 64.3¢ | $249.66 | $275.48 | +$25.82 | 60% 4654-3141 (7795) |
TH thirdt1me | Cosme Rolland De Ravelavg 63.3¢ | $346.3 | $232.08 | -$1.72 | 57% 224-169 (393) |
OM omnibus-076daaARB<$100 | Cosme Rolland De Ravelavg 70.5¢ | $152.32 | $134.2 | -$18.12 | 50% 24122-24229 (48351) |
| └ Cosme Rolland De Ravel leg | Cosme Rolland De Ravelavg 70.5¢ | $95.47 | $94.79 | -$0.68 | |
| └ Edas Butvilas leg | Edas Butvilasavg 43.3¢ | $56.85 | $39.4 | -$17.45 | |
EF efntrick | Cosme Rolland De Ravelavg 44.7¢ | $113.24 | $116.61 | +$36.97 | 49% 3734-3959 (7693) |
 machinelearned<$100 | Cosme Rolland De Ravelavg 67.8¢ | $78.48 | $76.72 | -$1.76 | 54% 10539-8942 (19481) |
0X 0xa85B3359D5e0BDCB925F6A2B94ddfBF6d403eb0<$100 | Cosme Rolland De Ravelavg 66.5¢ | $31.2 | $30 | -$1.2 | 52% 6198-5720 (11918) |
EU Eulhunter<$100 | Cosme Rolland De Ravelavg 47¢ | $9.4 | $12.7 | +$3.3 | 53% 6834-5983 (12817) |
 TRCMCTR<$100 | Edas Butvilasavg 46.2¢ | $8.67 | $5.34 | -$3.66 | 55% 4138-3332 (7470) |
VE Venusian<$100 | Cosme Rolland De Ravelavg 48.2¢ | $3.77 | $3.44 | +$0.04 | 45% 2738-3312 (6050) |
Invested
$9,879.21
Value
$9.9K
PnL
+$56.21
Record
46%
33770-39445 (73215)
Invested
$2,550
Value
$2.5K
PnL
-$54.81
Record
51%
28-27 (55)
VeryLucky888Invested
$1,188.7
Value
$1.3K
PnL
+$101.77
Record
58%
53770-38280 (92050)
Invested
$1,180.56
Value
$1.2K
PnL
+$463.99
Record
48%
72152-77872 (150024)
Invested
$1,751.51
Value
$1.1K
PnL
-$653.47
Record
49%
591-612 (1203)
Invested
$1,111.12
Value
$537.35
PnL
-$573.77
Record
51%
1783-1683 (3466)
Invested
$227.96
Value
$328.68
PnL
+$100.71
Record
52%
49472-46424 (95896)
Invested
$249.66
Value
$275.48
PnL
+$25.82
Record
60%
4654-3141 (7795)
Invested
$346.3
Value
$232.08
PnL
-$1.72
Record
57%
224-169 (393)
Invested
$152.32
Value
$134.2
PnL
-$18.12
Record
50%
24122-24229 (48351)
Both legs:
Invested
$113.24
Value
$116.61
PnL
+$36.97
Record
49%
3734-3959 (7693)
machinelearned<$100Invested
$78.48
Value
$76.72
PnL
-$1.76
Record
54%
10539-8942 (19481)
Invested
$31.2
Value
$30
PnL
-$1.2
Record
52%
6198-5720 (11918)
Invested
$9.4
Value
$12.7
PnL
+$3.3
Record
53%
6834-5983 (12817)
TRCMCTR<$100Invested
$8.67
Value
$5.34
PnL
-$3.66
Record
55%
4138-3332 (7470)
Invested
$3.77
Value
$3.44
PnL
+$0.04
Record
45%
2738-3312 (6050)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
72.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.
Market Info
Traders in this Market
ferrariChampions2026
Cosme Rolland De Ravel — $9.9K
Oleocanthal
CTREdas Butvilas — $2.5K
VeryLucky888
Cosme Rolland De Ravel — $1.3K
38791873984189
Cosme Rolland De Ravel — $1.2K
0xBc43c8bfBC4d77c2FC9011adaD38Ba43b88996d3-1765231687816
CTREdas Butvilas — $1.1K
vibing123
CTREdas Butvilas — $537.35
Flaznorp
Cosme Rolland De Ravel — $328.68
thestingsnake
Cosme Rolland De Ravel — $275.48
thirdt1me
Cosme Rolland De Ravel — $232.08
omnibus-076daa
ARBArbitrage — excluded