Hersonissos 3: Carlo Alberto Caniato vs Gilles Arnaud Bailly

12 of 14 top Polymarket traders hold Carlo Alberto Caniato (86%) · Carlo Alberto Caniato at 83¢ · $9K held · ends Nov 16

Carlo Alberto Caniato83¢Gilles Arnaud Bailly17¢Ends Mon, Nov 16, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Carlo Alberto Caniato

Consensus Traders

Carlo Alberto Caniato 86%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$8.8K

Combined PnL

$107.99

Smart Money Entry

81.3¢ → 82.5¢

+1% since entry · 12 traders

Research grade

NeutralCarlo Alberto Caniato at 83%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Carlo Alberto Caniato

12 of 14 top traders (86%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Carlo Alberto Caniato83%

Gilles Arnaud Bailly18%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Carlo Alberto Caniato12 traders

Total Value$7.5K

Total Shares9,029

Combined PnL+$107.83

Gilles Arnaud Bailly2 traders

Total Value$254.82

Total Shares1,314

Combined PnL+$0.16

Carlo Alberto Caniato — 86%Gilles Arnaud Bailly — 14%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-5 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 84%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

75% of non-arb traders are on Carlo Alberto Caniato. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 84% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpCarlo Alberto Caniato 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrCarlo Alberto Caniato 71% · 7

Aligned

Hand-pickedCarlo Alberto Caniato 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Carlo Alberto Caniato 82% · 11

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
LI LightParadox	Carlo Alberto Caniatoavg 82.6¢	$4.2K	$4.2K	-$4.28	25% 209-639 (848)
VE Venusian	Carlo Alberto Caniatoavg 84¢	$1.3K	$1.3K	-$23.95	25% 210-646 (856)
38 38791873984189ARB<$100	Gilles Arnaud Baillyavg 16.7¢	$820.21	$994.58	+$186.72	48% 802-884 (1686)
└ Gilles Arnaud Bailly leg	Gilles Arnaud Baillyavg 16.7¢	$641.04	$747.45	+$108.44
└ Carlo Alberto Caniato leg	Carlo Alberto Caniatoavg 55¢	$168.85	$247.14	+$78.29
MA MadridTime	Carlo Alberto Caniatoavg 81¢	$493.4	$502.54	+$9.14	25% 210-628 (838)
TH thestingsnake	Carlo Alberto Caniatoavg 83.7¢	$343.3	$330	-$5.3	17% 69-334 (403)
OM omnibus-076daa	Carlo Alberto Caniatoavg 64¢	$254.16	$316.91	+$62.75	35% 177-324 (501)
LI Limousin	Carlo Alberto Caniatoavg 84¢	$288.96	$283.8	-$5.16	24% 207-650 (857)
RN1CTR	Gilles Arnaud Baillyavg 19¢	$243.93	$250.35	+$6.42	58% 3753-2706 (6459)
EU Eulhunter	Carlo Alberto Caniatoavg 84¢	$157.08	$154.28	-$2.81	53% 59-52 (111)
0xheavy888	Carlo Alberto Caniatoavg 62.3¢	$103.35	$141.07	+$37.72	56% 105-82 (187)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2ARB<$100	Carlo Alberto Caniatoavg 71.2¢	$77.39	$87.01	+$9.62	56% 3791-2951 (6742)
└ Carlo Alberto Caniato leg	Carlo Alberto Caniatoavg 71.2¢	$59.05	$66.82	+$7.76
└ Gilles Arnaud Bailly leg	Gilles Arnaud Baillyavg 17.7¢	$18.34	$20.2	+$1.86
FL Flaznorp<$100	Carlo Alberto Caniatoavg 62.3¢	$65.57	$84.19	+$18.62	50% 1393-1407 (2800)
BA babybells<$100	Carlo Alberto Caniatoavg 55¢	$49.85	$66.95	+$17.1	17% 73-363 (436)
BI BillBenter2026<$100	Carlo Alberto Caniatoavg 82.7¢	$47.15	$47.03	-$0.13	12% 65-461 (526)
SE sentrio<$100	Carlo Alberto Caniatoavg 62¢	$11.11	$15.23	+$4.12	30% 161-379 (540)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100	Gilles Arnaud Baillyavg 36¢	$10.73	$4.47	-$6.26	48% 223-237 (460)

LightParadox

Carlo Alberto Caniato

Invested

$4,242.91

Value

$4.2K

PnL

-$4.28

Record

25%

209-639 (848)

Venusian

Carlo Alberto Caniato

Invested

$1,341.03

Value

$1.3K

PnL

-$23.95

Record

25%

210-646 (856)

38791873984189ARB<$100

Gilles Arnaud Bailly

Invested

$820.21

Value

$994.58

PnL

+$186.72

Record

48%

802-884 (1686)

Both legs:

Gilles Arnaud Bailly$641.0416.7¢+$108.44

Carlo Alberto Caniato$168.8555¢+$78.29

MadridTime

Carlo Alberto Caniato

Invested

$493.4

Value

$502.54

PnL

+$9.14

Record

25%

210-628 (838)

thestingsnake

Carlo Alberto Caniato

Invested

$343.3

Value

$330

PnL

-$5.3

Record

17%

69-334 (403)

omnibus-076daa

Carlo Alberto Caniato

Invested

$254.16

Value

$316.91

PnL

+$62.75

Record

35%

177-324 (501)

Limousin

Carlo Alberto Caniato

Invested

$288.96

Value

$283.8

PnL

-$5.16

Record

24%

207-650 (857)

RN1CTR

Gilles Arnaud Bailly

Invested

$243.93

Value

$250.35

PnL

+$6.42

Record

58%

3753-2706 (6459)

Eulhunter

Carlo Alberto Caniato

Invested

$157.08

Value

$154.28

PnL

-$2.81

Record

53%

59-52 (111)

0xheavy888

Carlo Alberto Caniato

Invested

$103.35

Value

$141.07

PnL

+$37.72

Record

56%

105-82 (187)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2ARB<$100

Carlo Alberto Caniato

Invested

$77.39

Value

$87.01

PnL

+$9.62

Record

56%

3791-2951 (6742)

Both legs:

Carlo Alberto Caniato$59.0571.2¢+$7.76

Gilles Arnaud Bailly$18.3417.7¢+$1.86

Flaznorp<$100

Carlo Alberto Caniato

Invested

$65.57

Value

$84.19

PnL

+$18.62

Record

50%

1393-1407 (2800)

babybells<$100

Carlo Alberto Caniato

Invested

$49.85

Value

$66.95

PnL

+$17.1

Record

17%

73-363 (436)

BillBenter2026<$100

Carlo Alberto Caniato

Invested

$47.15

Value

$47.03

PnL

-$0.13

Record

12%

65-461 (526)

sentrio<$100

Carlo Alberto Caniato

Invested

$11.11

Value

$15.23

PnL

+$4.12

Record

30%

161-379 (540)

VeryLucky888CTR<$100

Gilles Arnaud Bailly

Invested

$10.73

Value

$4.47

PnL

-$6.26

Record

48%

223-237 (460)

Research grade

NeutralCarlo Alberto Caniato at 83%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Carlo Alberto Caniato

12 of 14 top traders (86%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-5 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 84%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

75% of non-arb traders are on Carlo Alberto Caniato. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 84% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpCarlo Alberto Caniato 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrCarlo Alberto Caniato 71% · 7

Aligned

Hand-pickedCarlo Alberto Caniato 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Carlo Alberto Caniato 82% · 11

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Carlo Alberto Caniato wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance84.2%

82.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$18.78

Max Loss

-$100.00

118.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.