Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Ugo Blanchet, while the market favors Buvaysar Gadamauri (100%). 9 of 17 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Orleans: Buvaysar Gadamauri vs Ugo Blanchet

9 of 17 top Polymarket traders hold Ugo Blanchet (53%) · Ugo Blanchet at 0.1¢ · $21K held · ends Nov 17

Buvaysar Gadamauri>99¢Ugo Blanchet<1¢Ends Tue, Nov 17, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Ugo Blanchet

Consensus Traders

Ugo Blanchet 53%

Total Value

$21.2K

Combined PnL

$-2.0K

Smart Money Entry

56¢ → 0.1¢

-100% since entry · 9 traders

Research grade

AvoidUgo Blanchet at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Ugo Blanchet

9 of 17 top traders (53%)Underdog side (market favors Buvaysar Gadamauri 100%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Buvaysar Gadamauri100%

Ugo Blanchet0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Buvaysar Gadamauri8 traders

Total Value$14.7K

Total Shares21,463

Combined PnL+$4.5K

Ugo Blanchet9 traders

Total Value$6.5K

Total Shares20,440

Combined PnL$-6.5K

Buvaysar Gadamauri — 47%Ugo Blanchet — 53%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL Flaznorp	Buvaysar Gadamauriavg 40.8¢	$3.4K	$5.8K	+$2.4K	52% 49472-46424 (95896)
FE ferrariChampions2026CTR	Ugo Blanchetavg 53.8¢	$5.4K	$3.7K	$-1.8K	46% 33770-39445 (73215)
TH thestingsnake	Buvaysar Gadamauriavg 36.8¢	$1.7K	$2.8K	+$1.7K	60% 4654-3141 (7795)
AC Accomplished-Framework	Buvaysar Gadamauriavg 52.5¢	$3.5K	$2.4K	$-1.1K	46% 299-349 (648)
PL pltrkr111CTR	Ugo Blanchetavg 63¢	$2.0K	$2.0K	+$15.87	55% 844-698 (1542)
CI cigarettes	Buvaysar Gadamauriavg 31.5¢	$825.93	$1.7K	+$901.55	50% 66257-66785 (133042)
TRCM	Buvaysar Gadamauriavg 33.1¢	$1.3K	$1.5K	+$136.98	55% 4138-3332 (7470)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR	Ugo Blanchetavg 44.2¢	$2.0K	$320.77	$-1.6K	47% 2263-2572 (4835)
SC SchruteBucksCTR	Ugo Blanchetavg 72¢	$766.07	$294.88	-$247.7	56% 1993-1542 (3535)
EU Eulhunter	Buvaysar Gadamauriavg 46.5¢	$174.54	$218.98	+$44.44	53% 6834-5983 (12817)
dips.CTR	Ugo Blanchetavg 83.6¢	$1.8K	$200.2	$-1.6K	48% 17808-19532 (37340)
PA Pan9X	Buvaysar Gadamauriavg 38.8¢	$836.54	$159.58	+$89.3	53% 28354-25627 (53981)
FL flatbarrel	Buvaysar Gadamauriavg 28.2¢	$525.19	$66.68	+$321.01	58% 2818-2024 (4842)
SU suitcase6628CTR	Ugo Blanchetavg 69.1¢	$1.4K	$0.53	-$871.32	57% 212-163 (375)
LornaPredictsCTR<$100	Ugo Blanchetavg 14.8¢	$77.1	$0.26	-$76.84	14% 9531-61028 (70559)
SH shiifooCTR	Ugo Blanchetavg 34¢	$282.32	$0.19	-$152.38	47% 5211-5761 (10972)
OM omnibus-076daaCTR	Ugo Blanchetavg 54¢	$106.25	$0.1	-$106.15	50% 24122-24229 (48351)

Flaznorp

Buvaysar Gadamauri

Invested

$3,415.4

Value

$5.8K

PnL

+$2.4K

Record

52%

49472-46424 (95896)

ferrariChampions2026CTR

Ugo Blanchet

Invested

$5,433.23

Value

$3.7K

PnL

$-1.8K

Record

46%

33770-39445 (73215)

thestingsnake

Buvaysar Gadamauri

Invested

$1,741.93

Value

$2.8K

PnL

+$1.7K

Record

60%

4654-3141 (7795)

Accomplished-Framework

Buvaysar Gadamauri

Invested

$3,501.67

Value

$2.4K

PnL

$-1.1K

Record

46%

299-349 (648)

pltrkr111CTR

Ugo Blanchet

Invested

$1,999.99

Value

$2.0K

PnL

+$15.87

Record

55%

844-698 (1542)

cigarettes

Buvaysar Gadamauri

Invested

$825.93

Value

$1.7K

PnL

+$901.55

Record

50%

66257-66785 (133042)

TRCM

Buvaysar Gadamauri

Invested

$1,323.02

Value

$1.5K

PnL

+$136.98

Record

55%

4138-3332 (7470)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR

Ugo Blanchet

Invested

$1,955.94

Value

$320.77

PnL

$-1.6K

Record

47%

2263-2572 (4835)

SchruteBucksCTR

Ugo Blanchet

Invested

$766.07

Value

$294.88

PnL

-$247.7

Record

56%

1993-1542 (3535)

Eulhunter

Buvaysar Gadamauri

Invested

$174.54

Value

$218.98

PnL

+$44.44

Record

53%

6834-5983 (12817)

dips.CTR

Ugo Blanchet

Invested

$1,820.3

Value

$200.2

PnL

$-1.6K

Record

48%

17808-19532 (37340)

Pan9X

Buvaysar Gadamauri

Invested

$836.54

Value

$159.58

PnL

+$89.3

Record

53%

28354-25627 (53981)

flatbarrel

Buvaysar Gadamauri

Invested

$525.19

Value

$66.68

PnL

+$321.01

Record

58%

2818-2024 (4842)

suitcase6628CTR

Ugo Blanchet

Invested

$1,357.88

Value

$0.53

PnL

-$871.32

Record

57%

212-163 (375)

LornaPredictsCTR<$100

Ugo Blanchet

Invested

$77.1

Value

$0.26

PnL

-$76.84

Record

14%

9531-61028 (70559)

shiifooCTR

Ugo Blanchet

Invested

$282.32

Value

$0.19

PnL

-$152.38

Record

47%

5211-5761 (10972)

omnibus-076daaCTR

Ugo Blanchet

Invested

$106.25

Value

$0.1

PnL

-$106.15

Record

50%

24122-24229 (48351)

Research grade

AvoidUgo Blanchet at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Ugo Blanchet

9 of 17 top traders (53%)Underdog side (market favors Buvaysar Gadamauri 100%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Ugo Blanchet wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.1%

0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$8974.83

Max Loss

-$100.00

9074.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.