Hersonissos 3: Michael Geerts vs Sumit Nagal

10 of 17 top Polymarket traders hold Sumit Nagal (59%) · Sumit Nagal at 56¢ · $3K held · ends Nov 18

Michael Geerts44¢Sumit Nagal56¢Ends Wed, Nov 18, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Sumit Nagal

Consensus Traders

Sumit Nagal 59%

Total Value

$2.6K

Combined PnL

$95.46

Smart Money Entry

65.9¢ → 56.5¢

-14% since entry · 10 traders

Research grade

NeutralSumit Nagal at 56%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Sumit Nagal

10 of 17 top traders (59%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Michael Geerts44%

Sumit Nagal56%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Michael Geerts7 traders

Total Value$1.3K

Total Shares2,964

Combined PnL+$102.93

Sumit Nagal10 traders

Total Value$1.3K

Total Shares1,929

Combined PnL-$7.46

Michael Geerts — 41%Sumit Nagal — 59%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 83%

Freshness

Fresh

10h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

56% of non-arb traders are on Sumit Nagal. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 83% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrMichael Geerts 57% · 7

Diverging

Hand-pickedSumit Nagal 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Sumit Nagal 50% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR	Michael Geertsavg 36.2¢	$899.01	$1.0K	+$111.17	53% 1783-1584 (3367)
FL Flaznorp	Sumit Nagalavg 70¢	$398.01	$389.57	-$8.43	51% 1816-1775 (3591)
LI Limousin	Sumit Nagalavg 73¢	$335.17	$333.29	-$1.88	30% 368-861 (1229)
38 38791873984189	Sumit Nagalavg 57¢	$270.75	$273.13	+$2.38	48% 1257-1350 (2607)
MA MadridTimeCTR	Michael Geertsavg 31.8¢	$167.06	$165.73	-$1.33	31% 372-838 (1210)
TH thirdt1me	Sumit Nagalavg 57.2¢	$122.96	$123.58	+$0.63	43% 109-145 (254)
DA darkumbreon88<$100	Sumit Nagalavg 71¢	$95.46	$94.11	-$1.34	61% 920-590 (1510)
TH thestingsnakeCTR<$100	Michael Geertsavg 39¢	$78.21	$53.33	-$2.82	23% 109-368 (477)
OM omnibus-076daa<$100	Sumit Nagalavg 68¢	$51.57	$53.09	+$1.52	40% 255-375 (630)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2CTR<$100	Michael Geertsavg 43¢	$41.38	$37.66	-$3.72	56% 3836-3005 (6841)
EU EulhunterCTR<$100	Michael Geertsavg 28.2¢	$23.16	$23.2	+$0.04	49% 91-96 (187)
PA Pan9X<$100	Sumit Nagalavg 71¢	$22.72	$22.4	-$0.32	48% 654-703 (1357)
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100	Michael Geertsavg 29¢	$15.21	$15.84	+$0.63	30% 367-860 (1227)
65 6512395314597884<$100	Sumit Nagalavg 57¢	$11.57	$11.68	+$0.1	50% 3287-3240 (6527)
AM ameisgoat11<$100	Sumit Nagalavg 71¢	$7.1	$7	-$0.1	31% 274-610 (884)
VE VenusianCTR<$100	Michael Geertsavg 35¢	$6.65	$5.6	-$1.05	30% 371-860 (1231)
VeryLucky888<$100	Sumit Nagalavg 70¢	$0.97	$0.97	+$0	52% 440-413 (853)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR

Michael Geerts

Invested

$899.01

Value

$1.0K

PnL

+$111.17

Record

53%

1783-1584 (3367)

Flaznorp

Sumit Nagal

Invested

$398.01

Value

$389.57

PnL

-$8.43

Record

51%

1816-1775 (3591)

Limousin

Sumit Nagal

Invested

$335.17

Value

$333.29

PnL

-$1.88

Record

30%

368-861 (1229)

38791873984189

Sumit Nagal

Invested

$270.75

Value

$273.13

PnL

+$2.38

Record

48%

1257-1350 (2607)

MadridTimeCTR

Michael Geerts

Invested

$167.06

Value

$165.73

PnL

-$1.33

Record

31%

372-838 (1210)

thirdt1me

Sumit Nagal

Invested

$122.96

Value

$123.58

PnL

+$0.63

Record

43%

109-145 (254)

darkumbreon88<$100

Sumit Nagal

Invested

$95.46

Value

$94.11

PnL

-$1.34

Record

61%

920-590 (1510)

thestingsnakeCTR<$100

Michael Geerts

Invested

$78.21

Value

$53.33

PnL

-$2.82

Record

23%

109-368 (477)

omnibus-076daa<$100

Sumit Nagal

Invested

$51.57

Value

$53.09

PnL

+$1.52

Record

40%

255-375 (630)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2CTR<$100

Michael Geerts

Invested

$41.38

Value

$37.66

PnL

-$3.72

Record

56%

3836-3005 (6841)

EulhunterCTR<$100

Michael Geerts

Invested

$23.16

Value

$23.2

PnL

+$0.04

Record

49%

91-96 (187)

Pan9X<$100

Sumit Nagal

Invested

$22.72

Value

$22.4

PnL

-$0.32

Record

48%

654-703 (1357)

LightParadoxCTR<$100

Michael Geerts

Invested

$15.21

Value

$15.84

PnL

+$0.63

Record

30%

367-860 (1227)

6512395314597884<$100

Sumit Nagal

Invested

$11.57

Value

$11.68

PnL

+$0.1

Record

50%

3287-3240 (6527)

ameisgoat11<$100

Sumit Nagal

Invested

$7.1

Value

PnL

-$0.1

Record

31%

274-610 (884)

VenusianCTR<$100

Michael Geerts

Invested

$6.65

Value

$5.6

PnL

-$1.05

Record

30%

371-860 (1231)

VeryLucky888<$100

Sumit Nagal

Invested

$0.97

Value

$0.97

PnL

+$0

Record

52%

440-413 (853)

Research grade

NeutralSumit Nagal at 56%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Sumit Nagal

10 of 17 top traders (59%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 83%

Freshness

Fresh

10h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

56% of non-arb traders are on Sumit Nagal. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 83% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrMichael Geerts 57% · 7

Diverging

Hand-pickedSumit Nagal 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Sumit Nagal 50% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Sumit Nagal wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance58.7%

56.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$70.29

Max Loss

-$100.00

170.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.