Knoxville: Lui Maxted vs Clement Chidekh

10 of 14 top Polymarket traders hold Clement Chidekh (71%) · Clement Chidekh at 68¢ · $9K held · ends Nov 18

Lui Maxted33¢Clement Chidekh67¢Ends Wed, Nov 18, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Clement Chidekh

Consensus Traders

Clement Chidekh 71%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$9.0K

Combined PnL

$1.2K

Smart Money Entry

60.3¢ → 67.5¢

+12% since entry · 10 traders

Research grade

NeutralClement Chidekh at 68%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Clement Chidekh

10 of 14 top traders (71%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Lui Maxted33%

Clement Chidekh68%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Clement Chidekh10 traders

Total Value$8.0K

Total Shares10,909

Combined PnL+$1.2K

Lui Maxted4 traders

Total Value$129.35

Total Shares408

Combined PnL+$10.46

Clement Chidekh — 71%Lui Maxted — 29%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh	Clement Chidekhavg 56¢	$3.4K	$4.4K	+$972.37	53% 1801-1611 (3412)
65 6512395314597884	Clement Chidekhavg 69¢	$1.3K	$1.3K	+$9.69	50% 3289-3245 (6534)
TH thirdt1me	Clement Chidekhavg 67.2¢	$818.22	$875.81	+$57.59	42% 110-152 (262)
MA MadridTimeARB<$100	Lui Maxtedavg 30.9¢	$759.68	$670.08	-$89.59	31% 379-844 (1223)
└ Lui Maxted leg	Lui Maxtedavg 30.9¢	$601.32	$505.35	-$95.97
└ Clement Chidekh leg	Clement Chidekhavg 71.1¢	$158.35	$164.73	+$6.38
machinelearned	Clement Chidekhavg 58.7¢	$504.23	$605.34	+$101.12	39% 506-777 (1283)
38 38791873984189	Clement Chidekhavg 57¢	$473.1	$518.75	+$45.65	48% 1332-1446 (2778)
TH thestingsnake	Clement Chidekhavg 71.1¢	$181.25	$184.88	+$3.63	24% 120-370 (490)
VE VenusianARB<$100	Lui Maxtedavg 34.8¢	$266.25	$114.36	-$20.27	31% 380-865 (1245)
└ Lui Maxted leg	Lui Maxtedavg 34.8¢	$75.25	$72.44	-$2.81
└ Clement Chidekh leg	Clement Chidekhavg 72¢	$45.38	$41.91	-$17.47
LI LimousinCTR	Lui Maxtedavg 31¢	$100.75	$108.88	+$8.13	30% 373-868 (1241)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2<$100	Clement Chidekhavg 69.7¢	$61.09	$61.56	+$0.47	56% 3843-3017 (6860)
BA babybells<$100	Clement Chidekhavg 71¢	$46.15	$48.43	+$2.27	23% 120-406 (526)
FL Flaznorp<$100	Clement Chidekhavg 72¢	$12.4	$12.33	-$0.07	51% 1833-1787 (3620)
LI LightParadox<$100	Clement Chidekhavg 70¢	$10.5	$10.58	+$0.07	30% 373-864 (1237)
RN1CTR<$100	Lui Maxtedavg 20¢	$8.16	$8.98	+$0.82	57% 4029-3044 (7073)
PA pauleta23CTR<$100	Lui Maxtedavg 27¢	$5.4	$6.7	+$1.3	29% 190-469 (659)
CI cigarettesCTR<$100	Lui Maxtedavg 21¢	$4.58	$4.79	+$0.22	53% 5671-5102 (10773)

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh

Clement Chidekh

Invested

$3,401.97

Value

$4.4K

PnL

+$972.37

Record

53%

1801-1611 (3412)

6512395314597884

Clement Chidekh

Invested

$1,336.59

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$9.69

Record

50%

3289-3245 (6534)

thirdt1me

Clement Chidekh

Invested

$818.22

Value

$875.81

PnL

+$57.59

Record

42%

110-152 (262)

MadridTimeARB<$100

Lui Maxted

Invested

$759.68

Value

$670.08

PnL

-$89.59

Record

31%

379-844 (1223)

Both legs:

Lui Maxted$601.3230.9¢-$95.97

Clement Chidekh$158.3571.1¢+$6.38

machinelearned

Clement Chidekh

Invested

$504.23

Value

$605.34

PnL

+$101.12

Record

39%

506-777 (1283)

38791873984189

Clement Chidekh

Invested

$473.1

Value

$518.75

PnL

+$45.65

Record

48%

1332-1446 (2778)

thestingsnake

Clement Chidekh

Invested

$181.25

Value

$184.88

PnL

+$3.63

Record

24%

120-370 (490)

VenusianARB<$100

Lui Maxted

Invested

$266.25

Value

$114.36

PnL

-$20.27

Record

31%

380-865 (1245)

Both legs:

Lui Maxted$75.2534.8¢-$2.81

Clement Chidekh$45.3872¢-$17.47

LimousinCTR

Lui Maxted

Invested

$100.75

Value

$108.88

PnL

+$8.13

Record

30%

373-868 (1241)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2<$100

Clement Chidekh

Invested

$61.09

Value

$61.56

PnL

+$0.47

Record

56%

3843-3017 (6860)

babybells<$100

Clement Chidekh

Invested

$46.15

Value

$48.43

PnL

+$2.27

Record

23%

120-406 (526)

Flaznorp<$100

Clement Chidekh

Invested

$12.4

Value

$12.33

PnL

-$0.07

Record

51%

1833-1787 (3620)

LightParadox<$100

Clement Chidekh

Invested

$10.5

Value

$10.58

PnL

+$0.07

Record

30%

373-864 (1237)

RN1CTR<$100

Lui Maxted

Invested

$8.16

Value

$8.98

PnL

+$0.82

Record

57%

4029-3044 (7073)

pauleta23CTR<$100

Lui Maxted

Invested

$5.4

Value

$6.7

PnL

+$1.3

Record

29%

190-469 (659)

cigarettesCTR<$100

Lui Maxted

Invested

$4.58

Value

$4.79

PnL

+$0.22

Record

53%

5671-5102 (10773)

Research grade

NeutralClement Chidekh at 68%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Clement Chidekh

10 of 14 top traders (71%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Clement Chidekh wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance69.6%

67.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$43.72

Max Loss

-$100.00

143.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.