Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Geoffrey Blancaneaux, while the market favors Shunsuke Mitsui (57%). 7 of 15 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Knoxville: Shunsuke Mitsui vs Geoffrey Blancaneaux

7 of 15 top Polymarket traders hold Geoffrey Blancaneaux (47%) · Geoffrey Blancaneaux at 43¢ · $5K held · ends Nov 15

Shunsuke Mitsui57¢Geoffrey Blancaneaux43¢Ends Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Geoffrey Blancaneaux

Consensus Traders

Geoffrey Blancaneaux 47%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$5.3K

Combined PnL

$0.47

Smart Money Entry

45.1¢ → 42.5¢

-6% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralGeoffrey Blancaneaux at 43%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Geoffrey Blancaneaux

7 of 15 top traders (47%)Underdog side (market favors Shunsuke Mitsui 57%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Shunsuke Mitsui57%

Geoffrey Blancaneaux43%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Shunsuke Mitsui8 traders

Total Value$1.3K

Total Shares2,169

Combined PnL+$44.82

Geoffrey Blancaneaux7 traders

Total Value$1.6K

Total Shares3,732

Combined PnL-$44.35

Shunsuke Mitsui — 53%Geoffrey Blancaneaux — 47%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 94%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Geoffrey Blancaneaux. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 94% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleGeoffrey Blancaneaux 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrShunsuke Mitsui 67% · 3

Diverging

Top 1000Geoffrey Blancaneaux 50% · 6

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
MA MadridTimeARB<$100	Geoffrey Blancaneauxavg 46.3¢	$1.9K	$1.9K	+$3.5	47% 2130-2385 (4515)
└ Shunsuke Mitsui leg	Shunsuke Mitsuiavg 52.9¢	$924.27	$996.38	+$72.11
└ Geoffrey Blancaneaux leg	Geoffrey Blancaneauxavg 46.3¢	$950.76	$882.15	-$68.62
38 38791873984189	Shunsuke Mitsuiavg 54.9¢	$1.1K	$1.1K	+$38.68	48% 70290-75979 (146269)
FE ferrariChampions2026CTR	Geoffrey Blancaneauxavg 46.6¢	$635.74	$592.89	-$42.84	46% 33409-38908 (72317)
VE VenusianCTR	Geoffrey Blancaneauxavg 43.9¢	$558.15	$552.91	-$5.25	47% 2177-2413 (4590)
LI LimousinARB<$100	Geoffrey Blancaneauxavg 43.4¢	$433.8	$452.6	+$18.8	49% 2208-2325 (4533)
└ Geoffrey Blancaneaux leg	Geoffrey Blancaneauxavg 43.4¢	$294.02	$294.65	+$0.63
└ Shunsuke Mitsui leg	Shunsuke Mitsuiavg 50¢	$139.78	$157.95	+$18.17
RN1CTR	Geoffrey Blancaneauxavg 44.6¢	$220	$224.25	+$4.25	53% 70213-61793 (132006)
EU EulhunterCTR	Geoffrey Blancaneauxavg 45.4¢	$118.83	$113.97	-$4.86	53% 6779-5930 (12709)
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100	Geoffrey Blancaneauxavg 44.2¢	$80.91	$83.21	+$2.3	47% 2124-2359 (4483)
TH thestingsnakeCTR<$100	Geoffrey Blancaneauxavg 44.2¢	$68.01	$69.81	+$1.8	60% 4596-3103 (7699)
FL Flaznorp<$100	Shunsuke Mitsuiavg 51¢	$63.34	$69.8	+$6.45	51% 47280-44570 (91850)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2<$100	Shunsuke Mitsuiavg 53.6¢	$27.31	$28.11	+$0.8	53% 15510-13744 (29254)
PA Pan9X<$100	Shunsuke Mitsuiavg 57¢	$18.08	$17.6	-$0.48	52% 27270-24782 (52052)
machinelearned<$100	Shunsuke Mitsuiavg 55¢	$11	$10.9	-$0.1	54% 10223-8703 (18926)
EF efntrick<$100	Shunsuke Mitsuiavg 56.4¢	$9.99	$9.74	-$0.25	49% 3723-3946 (7669)
OM omnibus-076daaCTR<$100	Geoffrey Blancaneauxavg 43¢	$12.51	$5.63	+$0.25	50% 23482-23489 (46971)
BI BillBenter2026<$100	Shunsuke Mitsuiavg 58¢	$4.64	$4.36	-$0.28	57% 20231-15051 (35282)
AM ameisgoat11<$100	Shunsuke Mitsuiavg 55¢	$5	$2.75	+$0	52% 9515-8627 (18142)

MadridTimeARB<$100

Geoffrey Blancaneaux

Invested

$1,875.03

Value

$1.9K

PnL

+$3.5

Record

47%

2130-2385 (4515)

Both legs:

Shunsuke Mitsui$924.2752.9¢+$72.11

Geoffrey Blancaneaux$950.7646.3¢-$68.62

38791873984189

Shunsuke Mitsui

Invested

$1,100.5

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$38.68

Record

48%

70290-75979 (146269)

ferrariChampions2026CTR

Geoffrey Blancaneaux

Invested

$635.74

Value

$592.89

PnL

-$42.84

Record

46%

33409-38908 (72317)

VenusianCTR

Geoffrey Blancaneaux

Invested

$558.15

Value

$552.91

PnL

-$5.25

Record

47%

2177-2413 (4590)

LimousinARB<$100

Geoffrey Blancaneaux

Invested

$433.8

Value

$452.6

PnL

+$18.8

Record

49%

2208-2325 (4533)

Both legs:

Geoffrey Blancaneaux$294.0243.4¢+$0.63

Shunsuke Mitsui$139.7850¢+$18.17

RN1CTR

Geoffrey Blancaneaux

Invested

$220

Value

$224.25

PnL

+$4.25

Record

53%

70213-61793 (132006)

EulhunterCTR

Geoffrey Blancaneaux

Invested

$118.83

Value

$113.97

PnL

-$4.86

Record

53%

6779-5930 (12709)

LightParadoxCTR<$100

Geoffrey Blancaneaux

Invested

$80.91

Value

$83.21

PnL

+$2.3

Record

47%

2124-2359 (4483)

thestingsnakeCTR<$100

Geoffrey Blancaneaux

Invested

$68.01

Value

$69.81

PnL

+$1.8

Record

60%

4596-3103 (7699)

Flaznorp<$100

Shunsuke Mitsui

Invested

$63.34

Value

$69.8

PnL

+$6.45

Record

51%

47280-44570 (91850)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2<$100

Shunsuke Mitsui

Invested

$27.31

Value

$28.11

PnL

+$0.8

Record

53%

15510-13744 (29254)

Pan9X<$100

Shunsuke Mitsui

Invested

$18.08

Value

$17.6

PnL

-$0.48

Record

52%

27270-24782 (52052)

machinelearned<$100

Shunsuke Mitsui

Invested

$11

Value

$10.9

PnL

-$0.1

Record

54%

10223-8703 (18926)

efntrick<$100

Shunsuke Mitsui

Invested

$9.99

Value

$9.74

PnL

-$0.25

Record

49%

3723-3946 (7669)

omnibus-076daaCTR<$100

Geoffrey Blancaneaux

Invested

$12.51

Value

$5.63

PnL

+$0.25

Record

50%

23482-23489 (46971)

BillBenter2026<$100

Shunsuke Mitsui

Invested

$4.64

Value

$4.36

PnL

-$0.28

Record

57%

20231-15051 (35282)

ameisgoat11<$100

Shunsuke Mitsui

Invested

Value

$2.75

PnL

+$0

Record

52%

9515-8627 (18142)

Research grade

NeutralGeoffrey Blancaneaux at 43%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Geoffrey Blancaneaux

7 of 15 top traders (47%)Underdog side (market favors Shunsuke Mitsui 57%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 94%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Geoffrey Blancaneaux. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 94% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleGeoffrey Blancaneaux 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrShunsuke Mitsui 67% · 3

Diverging

Top 1000Geoffrey Blancaneaux 50% · 6

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Geoffrey Blancaneaux wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance44.7%

42.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$123.57

Max Loss

-$100.00

223.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.