Matsuyama: Keisuke Saitoh vs Renta Tokuda

10 of 14 top Polymarket traders hold Keisuke Saitoh (71%) · Keisuke Saitoh at 61¢ · $78K held · ends Nov 16

Keisuke Saitoh61¢Renta Tokuda39¢Ends Mon, Nov 16, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Keisuke Saitoh

Consensus Traders

Keisuke Saitoh 71%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$78.0K

Combined PnL

$-5.5K

Smart Money Entry

60.1¢ → 61¢

+2% since entry · 10 traders

Research grade

NeutralKeisuke Saitoh at 61%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Keisuke Saitoh

10 of 14 top traders (71%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Keisuke Saitoh61%

Renta Tokuda39%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Keisuke Saitoh10 traders

Total Value$51.0K

Total Shares84,908

Combined PnL-$27.97

Renta Tokuda4 traders

Total Value$26.7K

Total Shares77,724

Combined PnL$-5.5K

Keisuke Saitoh — 71%Renta Tokuda — 29%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
RN1	Keisuke Saitohavg 59.9¢	$25.0K	$25.4K	+$467.36	53% 70249-61821 (132070)
RO robustmstCTR	Renta Tokudaavg 40.8¢	$26.6K	$22.2K	$-4.4K	48% 124-133 (257)
0X 0x2c335066FE58fe9237c3d3Dc7b275C2a034a0563-1759935795465	Keisuke Saitohavg 61¢	$9.3K	$9.3K	-$0	53% 6645-5939 (12584)
FE ferrariChampions2026	Keisuke Saitohavg 60.7¢	$6.3K	$6.3K	+$33.82	46% 33417-38911 (72328)
0X 0x8e83fae02e603cc2860638315f1c161fde5ab22f	Keisuke Saitohavg 57.3¢	$6.5K	$6.1K	-$431.62	51% 155-150 (305)
LI LightParadoxCTR	Renta Tokudaavg 43¢	$4.7K	$3.9K	-$879.18	47% 2157-2403 (4560)
SE sentrio	Keisuke Saitohavg 60¢	$1.9K	$1.9K	+$30.88	50% 27970-27422 (55392)
MA MadridTime	Keisuke Saitohavg 71.4¢	$1.1K	$1.0K	-$125.29	47% 2148-2414 (4562)
VE VenusianCTR	Renta Tokudaavg 43.2¢	$711.84	$607.8	-$104.04	47% 2189-2445 (4634)
FL Flaznorp	Keisuke Saitohavg 61.3¢	$518.39	$515.38	-$3.01	52% 47368-44608 (91976)
TH thestingsnakeARB<$100	Renta Tokudaavg 37.8¢	$464.45	$336.18	-$20.17	60% 4598-3103 (7701)
└ Renta Tokuda leg	Renta Tokudaavg 37.8¢	$270.58	$257.69	-$11.81
└ Keisuke Saitoh leg	Keisuke Saitohavg 68.1¢	$83.57	$78.49	-$8.36
machinelearned	Keisuke Saitohavg 61.9¢	$301.99	$299.47	-$2.52	54% 10225-8705 (18930)
EU Eulhunter	Keisuke Saitohavg 59.9¢	$135.92	$138.47	+$2.55	53% 6779-5931 (12710)
SC SchruteBucksCTR	Renta Tokudaavg 41¢	$572.33	$20.83	-$39.85	56% 1972-1532 (3504)
LI Limousin<$100	Keisuke Saitohavg 66.1¢	$3.31	$3.18	-$0.13	49% 2223-2352 (4575)

RN1

Keisuke Saitoh

Invested

$24,955.66

Value

$25.4K

PnL

+$467.36

Record

53%

70249-61821 (132070)

robustmstCTR

Renta Tokuda

Invested

$26,614.17

Value

$22.2K

PnL

$-4.4K

Record

48%

124-133 (257)

0x2c335066FE58fe9237c3d3Dc7b275C2a034a0563-1759935795465

Keisuke Saitoh

Invested

$9,348.33

Value

$9.3K

PnL

-$0

Record

53%

6645-5939 (12584)

ferrariChampions2026

Keisuke Saitoh

Invested

$6,276.63

Value

$6.3K

PnL

+$33.82

Record

46%

33417-38911 (72328)

0x8e83fae02e603cc2860638315f1c161fde5ab22f

Keisuke Saitoh

Invested

$6,532.49

Value

$6.1K

PnL

-$431.62

Record

51%

155-150 (305)

LightParadoxCTR

Renta Tokuda

Invested

$4,747.78

Value

$3.9K

PnL

-$879.18

Record

47%

2157-2403 (4560)

sentrio

Keisuke Saitoh

Invested

$1,855.74

Value

$1.9K

PnL

+$30.88

Record

50%

27970-27422 (55392)

MadridTime

Keisuke Saitoh

Invested

$1,134.76

Value

$1.0K

PnL

-$125.29

Record

47%

2148-2414 (4562)

VenusianCTR

Renta Tokuda

Invested

$711.84

Value

$607.8

PnL

-$104.04

Record

47%

2189-2445 (4634)

Flaznorp

Keisuke Saitoh

Invested

$518.39

Value

$515.38

PnL

-$3.01

Record

52%

47368-44608 (91976)

thestingsnakeARB<$100

Renta Tokuda

Invested

$464.45

Value

$336.18

PnL

-$20.17

Record

60%

4598-3103 (7701)

Both legs:

Renta Tokuda$270.5837.8¢-$11.81

Keisuke Saitoh$83.5768.1¢-$8.36

machinelearned

Keisuke Saitoh

Invested

$301.99

Value

$299.47

PnL

-$2.52

Record

54%

10225-8705 (18930)

Eulhunter

Keisuke Saitoh

Invested

$135.92

Value

$138.47

PnL

+$2.55

Record

53%

6779-5931 (12710)

SchruteBucksCTR

Renta Tokuda

Invested

$572.33

Value

$20.83

PnL

-$39.85

Record

56%

1972-1532 (3504)

Limousin<$100

Keisuke Saitoh

Invested

$3.31

Value

$3.18

PnL

-$0.13

Record

49%

2223-2352 (4575)

Research grade

NeutralKeisuke Saitoh at 61%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Keisuke Saitoh

10 of 14 top traders (71%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Keisuke Saitoh wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance63.2%

61.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$58.28

Max Loss

-$100.00

158.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.