Brisbane 3: Tristan Schoolkate vs Cruz Hewitt

11 of 17 top Polymarket traders hold Tristan Schoolkate (65%) · Tristan Schoolkate at 80¢ · $14K held · ends Nov 16

Tristan Schoolkate80¢Cruz Hewitt20¢Ends Mon, Nov 16, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Tristan Schoolkate

Consensus Traders

Tristan Schoolkate 65%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$14.0K

Combined PnL

$307.16

Smart Money Entry

76.3¢ → 79.5¢

+4% since entry · 11 traders

Research grade

NeutralTristan Schoolkate at 80%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Tristan Schoolkate

11 of 17 top traders (65%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Tristan Schoolkate80%

Cruz Hewitt21%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Tristan Schoolkate11 traders

Total Value$10.0K

Total Shares12,460

Combined PnL+$305.1

Cruz Hewitt6 traders

Total Value$355.72

Total Shares1,466

Combined PnL+$2.06

Tristan Schoolkate — 65%Cruz Hewitt — 35%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
MA MadridTime	Tristan Schoolkateavg 76¢	$5.2K	$5.4K	+$235.21	24% 196-614 (810)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighARB<$100	Tristan Schoolkateavg 77¢	$3.9K	$3.6K	-$218.49	54% 1588-1335 (2923)
└ Tristan Schoolkate leg	Tristan Schoolkateavg 77¢	$2.2K	$2.3K	+$97.28
└ Cruz Hewitt leg	Cruz Hewittavg 24¢	$1.7K	$1.4K	-$315.77
38 38791873984189	Tristan Schoolkateavg 76.4¢	$1.5K	$1.5K	+$14.82	48% 674-721 (1395)
FL Flaznorp	Tristan Schoolkateavg 76.4¢	$1.3K	$1.3K	+$35.87	50% 1362-1381 (2743)
VE Venusian	Tristan Schoolkateavg 80¢	$1.0K	$1.0K	-$6.39	24% 200-631 (831)
LI LightParadox	Tristan Schoolkateavg 71.8¢	$235.37	$260.57	+$25.2	24% 197-623 (820)
RN1	Tristan Schoolkateavg 70¢	$212.03	$210.52	-$1.51	58% 3732-2688 (6420)
0xheavy888CTR	Cruz Hewittavg 24¢	$181.71	$185.05	+$3.34	53% 85-74 (159)
BA babybells	Tristan Schoolkateavg 76.7¢	$134.55	$137.45	+$2.9	14% 57-354 (411)
TH thestingsnakeCTR<$100	Cruz Hewittavg 23.1¢	$77.6	$82.34	+$4.74	14% 54-323 (377)
TH thirdt1meCTR	Cruz Hewittavg 21.4¢	$276.25	$72.29	-$5.96	30% 48-110 (158)
EU Eulhunter<$100	Tristan Schoolkateavg 75¢	$64.34	$64.76	+$0.43	52% 46-42 (88)
OM omnibus-076daa<$100	Tristan Schoolkateavg 75.2¢	$43	$43.16	+$0.16	34% 158-308 (466)
LI Limousin<$100	Tristan Schoolkateavg 84¢	$31.67	$26.84	-$1.13	23% 195-637 (832)
BI BillBenter2026<$100	Tristan Schoolkateavg 81.7¢	$16.35	$15.9	-$0.45	11% 54-448 (502)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Cruz Hewittavg 24¢	$8.4	$8.58	+$0.17	48% 391-428 (819)
nigiri99CTR<$100	Cruz Hewittavg 25¢	$6.5	$6.24	-$0.26	52% 119-111 (230)
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100	Cruz Hewittavg 24¢	$1.2	$1.23	+$0.03	21% 127-474 (601)

MadridTime

Tristan Schoolkate

Invested

$5,170.2

Value

$5.4K

PnL

+$235.21

Record

24%

196-614 (810)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighARB<$100

Tristan Schoolkate

Invested

$3,853.87

Value

$3.6K

PnL

-$218.49

Record

54%

1588-1335 (2923)

Both legs:

Tristan Schoolkate$2,167.3177¢+$97.28

Cruz Hewitt$1,686.5624¢-$315.77

38791873984189

Tristan Schoolkate

Invested

$1,533.96

Value

$1.5K

PnL

+$14.82

Record

48%

674-721 (1395)

Flaznorp

Tristan Schoolkate

Invested

$1,280.27

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$35.87

Record

50%

1362-1381 (2743)

Venusian

Tristan Schoolkate

Invested

$1,022.92

Value

$1.0K

PnL

-$6.39

Record

24%

200-631 (831)

LightParadox

Tristan Schoolkate

Invested

$235.37

Value

$260.57

PnL

+$25.2

Record

24%

197-623 (820)

RN1

Tristan Schoolkate

Invested

$212.03

Value

$210.52

PnL

-$1.51

Record

58%

3732-2688 (6420)

0xheavy888CTR

Cruz Hewitt

Invested

$181.71

Value

$185.05

PnL

+$3.34

Record

53%

85-74 (159)

babybells

Tristan Schoolkate

Invested

$134.55

Value

$137.45

PnL

+$2.9

Record

14%

57-354 (411)

thestingsnakeCTR<$100

Cruz Hewitt

Invested

$77.6

Value

$82.34

PnL

+$4.74

Record

14%

54-323 (377)

thirdt1meCTR

Cruz Hewitt

Invested

$276.25

Value

$72.29

PnL

-$5.96

Record

30%

48-110 (158)

Eulhunter<$100

Tristan Schoolkate

Invested

$64.34

Value

$64.76

PnL

+$0.43

Record

52%

46-42 (88)

omnibus-076daa<$100

Tristan Schoolkate

Invested

$43

Value

$43.16

PnL

+$0.16

Record

34%

158-308 (466)

Limousin<$100

Tristan Schoolkate

Invested

$31.67

Value

$26.84

PnL

-$1.13

Record

23%

195-637 (832)

BillBenter2026<$100

Tristan Schoolkate

Invested

$16.35

Value

$15.9

PnL

-$0.45

Record

11%

54-448 (502)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Cruz Hewitt

Invested

$8.4

Value

$8.58

PnL

+$0.17

Record

48%

391-428 (819)

nigiri99CTR<$100

Cruz Hewitt

Invested

$6.5

Value

$6.24

PnL

-$0.26

Record

52%

119-111 (230)

ameisgoat11CTR<$100

Cruz Hewitt

Invested

$1.2

Value

$1.23

PnL

+$0.03

Record

21%

127-474 (601)

Research grade

NeutralTristan Schoolkate at 80%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Tristan Schoolkate

11 of 17 top traders (65%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Tristan Schoolkate wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance81.3%

79.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$23.02

Max Loss

-$100.00

123.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.