Spread: Virginia Cavaliers (-3.5)

6 of 15 top Polymarket traders hold Virginia Cavaliers (40%) · Virginia Cavaliers at 99¢ · $37K held · ended Nov 8

Virginia Cavaliers99¢Arkansas Razorbacks1¢Ended Sun, Nov 8, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Virginia Cavaliers

Consensus Traders

Virginia Cavaliers 40%

Total Value

$37.0K

Combined PnL

$5.3K

Smart Money Entry

54.7¢ → 98.7¢

+80% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

AvoidVirginia Cavaliers at 99%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Virginia Cavaliers

6 of 15 top traders (40%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Virginia Cavaliers99%

Arkansas Razorbacks1%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Virginia Cavaliers6 traders

Total Value$34.4K

Total Shares34,751

Combined PnL+$13.8K

Arkansas Razorbacks9 traders

Total Value$2.6K

Total Shares25,466

Combined PnL$-8.5K

Virginia Cavaliers — 40%Arkansas Razorbacks — 60%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-10 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 98%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Virginia Cavaliers. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Arkansas Razorbacks) and the top 1000 (10 on Virginia Cavaliers) disagree here.

whaleVirginia Cavaliers 67% · 3

Aligned

ctrArkansas Razorbacks 71% · 7

Diverging

Hand-pickedArkansas Razorbacks 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Virginia Cavaliers 50% · 10

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FE ferrariChampions2026	Virginia Cavaliersavg 53.7¢	$14.6K	$26.7K	+$12.1K	46% 33351-38883 (72234)
HO HomeRunHazard	Virginia Cavaliersavg 49.2¢	$4.1K	$5.7K	+$1.6K	54% 19973-16852 (36825)
HI hi774cCTR	Arkansas Razorbacksavg 46.8¢	$3.2K	$1.5K	$-1.6K	46% 5617-6532 (12149)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872	Virginia Cavaliersavg 92.8¢	$992.01	$1.1K	+$66.29	57% 17052-13027 (30079)
RN1	Virginia Cavaliersavg 90.8¢	$517.28	$564.2	+$46.92	53% 70182-61748 (131930)
38 38791873984189CTR	Arkansas Razorbacksavg 47.1¢	$666.19	$260.92	-$181.63	48% 70249-75962 (146211)
SE sentrioCTR	Arkansas Razorbacksavg 50¢	$219.02	$257.39	+$38.37	50% 27934-27381 (55315)
IC ic4cream	Virginia Cavaliersavg 50¢	$252.85	$254.54	+$1.7	56% 2873-2262 (5135)
FL FlaznorpCTR	Arkansas Razorbacksavg 17.1¢	$555.81	$231.35	-$324.46	51% 47136-44473 (91609)
FO forecastication4CTR	Arkansas Razorbacksavg 46¢	$6.9K	$202.5	$-6.2K	50% 1566-1572 (3138)
VeryLucky888CTR	Arkansas Razorbacksavg 49.2¢	$324.95	$102.01	-$90.94	59% 52363-37089 (89452)
RL RLWG<$100	Virginia Cavaliersavg 50¢	$50.25	$56.25	+$6	49% 8555-8731 (17286)
0xheavy888CTR	Arkansas Razorbacksavg 27.2¢	$271.39	$54.95	-$216.45	56% 8753-6943 (15696)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Arkansas Razorbacksavg 48¢	$60.81	$5.54	+$7.12	52% 27203-24713 (51916)
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100	Arkansas Razorbacksavg 50¢	$1.28	$1.25	-$0.03	52% 9497-8605 (18102)

ferrariChampions2026

Virginia Cavaliers

Invested

$14,617.85

Value

$26.7K

PnL

+$12.1K

Record

46%

33351-38883 (72234)

HomeRunHazard

Virginia Cavaliers

Invested

$4,108.92

Value

$5.7K

PnL

+$1.6K

Record

54%

19973-16852 (36825)

hi774cCTR

Arkansas Razorbacks

Invested

$3,209.55

Value

$1.5K

PnL

$-1.6K

Record

46%

5617-6532 (12149)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872

Virginia Cavaliers

Invested

$992.01

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$66.29

Record

57%

17052-13027 (30079)

RN1

Virginia Cavaliers

Invested

$517.28

Value

$564.2

PnL

+$46.92

Record

53%

70182-61748 (131930)

38791873984189CTR

Arkansas Razorbacks

Invested

$666.19

Value

$260.92

PnL

-$181.63

Record

48%

70249-75962 (146211)

sentrioCTR

Arkansas Razorbacks

Invested

$219.02

Value

$257.39

PnL

+$38.37

Record

50%

27934-27381 (55315)

ic4cream

Virginia Cavaliers

Invested

$252.85

Value

$254.54

PnL

+$1.7

Record

56%

2873-2262 (5135)

FlaznorpCTR

Arkansas Razorbacks

Invested

$555.81

Value

$231.35

PnL

-$324.46

Record

51%

47136-44473 (91609)

forecastication4CTR

Arkansas Razorbacks

Invested

$6,900

Value

$202.5

PnL

$-6.2K

Record

50%

1566-1572 (3138)

VeryLucky888CTR

Arkansas Razorbacks

Invested

$324.95

Value

$102.01

PnL

-$90.94

Record

59%

52363-37089 (89452)

RLWG<$100

Virginia Cavaliers

Invested

$50.25

Value

$56.25

PnL

+$6

Record

49%

8555-8731 (17286)

0xheavy888CTR

Arkansas Razorbacks

Invested

$271.39

Value

$54.95

PnL

-$216.45

Record

56%

8753-6943 (15696)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Arkansas Razorbacks

Invested

$60.81

Value

$5.54

PnL

+$7.12

Record

52%

27203-24713 (51916)

ameisgoat11CTR<$100

Arkansas Razorbacks

Invested

$1.28

Value

$1.25

PnL

-$0.03

Record

52%

9497-8605 (18102)

Research grade

AvoidVirginia Cavaliers at 99%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Virginia Cavaliers

6 of 15 top traders (40%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-10 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 98%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Virginia Cavaliers. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Arkansas Razorbacks) and the top 1000 (10 on Virginia Cavaliers) disagree here.

whaleVirginia Cavaliers 67% · 3

Aligned

ctrArkansas Razorbacks 71% · 7

Diverging

Hand-pickedArkansas Razorbacks 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Virginia Cavaliers 50% · 10

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Virginia Cavaliers wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.7%

98.7¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.33

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.