Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (61%). 13 of 15 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Buffalo vs. Ball State: O/U 49.5

13 of 15 top Polymarket traders hold Under (87%) · Under at 40¢ · $23K held · ended Nov 12

Over61¢Under39¢Ended Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 87%

Total Value

$22.9K

Combined PnL

$166.9

Smart Money Entry

41.1¢ → 39.5¢

-4% since entry · 13 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 40%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

13 of 15 top traders (87%)Underdog side (market favors Over 61%)13 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over61%

Under40%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over2 traders

Total Value$7.7K

Total Shares12,895

Combined PnL+$364.54

Under13 traders

Total Value$15.2K

Total Shares37,433

Combined PnL-$197.64

Over — 13%Under — 87%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
PR primm	Overavg 57¢	$6.5K	$6.8K	+$342.23	61% 870-566 (1436)
0X 0x2c335066FE58fe9237c3d3Dc7b275C2a034a0563-1759935795465CTR	Underavg 40¢	$6.7K	$6.6K	-$83.92	51% 3720-3550 (7270)
IM imjustkenisgheyCTR	Underavg 43¢	$4.4K	$4.3K	-$97.26	52% 14-13 (27)
38 38791873984189CTR	Underavg 41.5¢	$1.8K	$1.8K	-$23.04	48% 1420-1557 (2977)
SU SunlineTicker	Overavg 58¢	$862.46	$884.77	+$22.3	70% 1671-717 (2388)
CI cigarettesCTR	Underavg 40¢	$480	$492	+$12	53% 5788-5165 (10953)
alpheclabs2CTR	Underavg 40¢	$398.8	$408.77	+$9.97	43% 121-158 (279)
65 6512395314597884CTR	Underavg 40¢	$400	$395	-$5	50% 3299-3255 (6554)
FO forecastication4CTR	Underavg 41¢	$337.84	$337.84	+$0	18% 49-220 (269)
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR	Underavg 42¢	$336	$328	-$8	15% 148-841 (989)
LI LimousinCTR	Underavg 43¢	$150.15	$146.66	-$3.49	30% 399-910 (1309)
NM NM-PCTR	Underavg 40¢	$140	$143.5	+$3.5	59% 3478-2368 (5846)
GC GC-PCTR	Underavg 40¢	$140	$143.5	+$3.5	21% 99-382 (481)
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100	Underavg 42.7¢	$96.14	$90.12	-$6.02	46% 292-339 (631)
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100	Underavg 40¢	$5	$5.13	+$0.13	41% 3158-4508 (7666)

primm

Over

Invested

$6,502.45

Value

$6.8K

PnL

+$342.23

Record

61%

870-566 (1436)

0x2c335066FE58fe9237c3d3Dc7b275C2a034a0563-1759935795465CTR

Under

Invested

$6,713.6

Value

$6.6K

PnL

-$83.92

Record

51%

3720-3550 (7270)

imjustkenisgheyCTR

Under

Invested

$4,355.72

Value

$4.3K

PnL

-$97.26

Record

52%

14-13 (27)

38791873984189CTR

Under

Invested

$1,827.85

Value

$1.8K

PnL

-$23.04

Record

48%

1420-1557 (2977)

SunlineTicker

Over

Invested

$862.46

Value

$884.77

PnL

+$22.3

Record

70%

1671-717 (2388)

cigarettesCTR

Under

Invested

$480

Value

$492

PnL

+$12

Record

53%

5788-5165 (10953)

alpheclabs2CTR

Under

Invested

$398.8

Value

$408.77

PnL

+$9.97

Record

43%

121-158 (279)

6512395314597884CTR

Under

Invested

$400

Value

$395

PnL

-$5

Record

50%

3299-3255 (6554)

forecastication4CTR

Under

Invested

$337.84

Value

$337.84

PnL

+$0

Record

18%

49-220 (269)

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR

Under

Invested

$336

Value

$328

PnL

-$8

Record

15%

148-841 (989)

LimousinCTR

Under

Invested

$150.15

Value

$146.66

PnL

-$3.49

Record

30%

399-910 (1309)

NM-PCTR

Under

Invested

$140

Value

$143.5

PnL

+$3.5

Record

59%

3478-2368 (5846)

GC-PCTR

Under

Invested

$140

Value

$143.5

PnL

+$3.5

Record

21%

99-382 (481)

SnakeBallCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$96.14

Value

$90.12

PnL

-$6.02

Record

46%

292-339 (631)

xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100

Under

Invested

Value

$5.13

PnL

+$0.13

Record

41%

3158-4508 (7666)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 40%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Under

13 of 15 top traders (87%)Underdog side (market favors Over 61%)13 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance41.7%

39.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$139.78

Max Loss

-$100.00

239.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.