Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Central Michigan, while the market favors Sacramento State (55%). 5 of 14 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Spread: Central Michigan (-17.5)

5 of 14 top Polymarket traders hold Central Michigan (36%) · Central Michigan at 46¢ · $20K held · ended Nov 12

Central Michigan46¢Sacramento State54¢Ended Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Central Michigan

Consensus Traders

Central Michigan 36%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$20.1K

Combined PnL

$418.74

Smart Money Entry

50.9¢ → 45.5¢

-11% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralCentral Michigan at 46%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Central Michigan

5 of 14 top traders (36%)Underdog side (market favors Sacramento State 55%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Central Michigan46%

Sacramento State55%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Central Michigan5 traders

Total Value$13.8K

Total Shares25,070

Combined PnL+$1.1K

Sacramento State9 traders

Total Value$3.2K

Total Shares8,574

Combined PnL-$677.63

Central Michigan — 36%Sacramento State — 64%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-22 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 85%

Freshness

Fresh

9h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

38% of non-arb traders are on Central Michigan. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 85% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sniperCentral Michigan 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrCentral Michigan 57% · 7

Aligned

Hand-pickedSacramento State 100% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000Sacramento State 58% · 12

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0x448861155279dbf833d041b963e3ac854599e319CTR	Central Michiganavg 48¢	$7.2K	$7.3K	+$75	59% 1126-779 (1905)
JO JokerTheClownCTR	Central Michiganavg 56.8¢	$3.6K	$4.1K	+$551.22	2% 4-192 (196)
PR primmCTR	Central Michiganavg 53.6¢	$1.5K	$1.8K	+$310.15	61% 870-566 (1436)
RN1	Sacramento Stateavg 42.2¢	$2.0K	$1.6K	-$389.25	57% 4059-3077 (7136)
38 38791873984189ARB<$100	Sacramento Stateavg 46.2¢	$1.7K	$1.5K	-$183.43	48% 1427-1570 (2997)
└ Sacramento State leg	Sacramento Stateavg 46.2¢	$1.2K	$909.95	-$329.3
└ Central Michigan leg	Central Michiganavg 49.9¢	$451.07	$596.94	+$145.87
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighARB<$100	Sacramento Stateavg 49.3¢	$1.7K	$1.5K	-$163.52	53% 1851-1666 (3517)
└ Central Michigan leg	Central Michiganavg 51¢	$586.48	$758.97	+$172.49
└ Sacramento State leg	Sacramento Stateavg 49.3¢	$1.1K	$747.03	-$336.01
HO HomeRunHazard	Sacramento Stateavg 51.5¢	$1.4K	$1.2K	-$178.48	57% 3229-2433 (5662)
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR	Central Michiganavg 48¢	$384	$528	+$144	15% 150-841 (991)
65 6512395314597884	Sacramento Stateavg 40.4¢	$180.26	$151.86	-$28.4	50% 3301-3257 (6558)
PA Pan9X	Sacramento Stateavg 45.3¢	$136.03	$106.37	-$29.66	49% 692-733 (1425)
RL RLWGCTR<$100	Central Michiganavg 50¢	$50	$66	+$16	67% 1661-814 (2475)
GC GC-P<$100	Sacramento Stateavg 52¢	$91	$59.5	-$31.5	20% 99-384 (483)
NM NM-P<$100	Sacramento Stateavg 52¢	$33.36	$21.81	-$11.55	59% 3478-2370 (5848)
VeryLucky888<$100	Sacramento Stateavg 50¢	$20.45	$13.91	-$6.54	52% 497-452 (949)
GH ghorrock<$100	Sacramento Stateavg 49.8¢	$16.02	$13.83	-$2.19	55% 680-552 (1232)
0X 0x2c335066FE58fe9237c3d3Dc7b275C2a034a0563-1759935795465<$100	Sacramento Stateavg 52¢	$5.99	$5.93	-$0.06	51% 3724-3550 (7274)

0x448861155279dbf833d041b963e3ac854599e319CTR

Central Michigan

Invested

$7,200

Value

$7.3K

PnL

+$75

Record

59%

1126-779 (1905)

JokerTheClownCTR

Central Michigan

Invested

$3,587.34

Value

$4.1K

PnL

+$551.22

Record

4-192 (196)

primmCTR

Central Michigan

Invested

$1,529.07

Value

$1.8K

PnL

+$310.15

Record

61%

870-566 (1436)

RN1

Sacramento State

Invested

$2,009.8

Value

$1.6K

PnL

-$389.25

Record

57%

4059-3077 (7136)

38791873984189ARB<$100

Sacramento State

Invested

$1,697.27

Value

$1.5K

PnL

-$183.43

Record

48%

1427-1570 (2997)

Both legs:

Sacramento State$1,237.6646.2¢-$329.3

Central Michigan$451.0749.9¢+$145.87

keeptheblueflagflyinghighARB<$100

Sacramento State

Invested

$1,669.53

Value

$1.5K

PnL

-$163.52

Record

53%

1851-1666 (3517)

Both legs:

Central Michigan$586.4851¢+$172.49

Sacramento State$1,083.0549.3¢-$336.01

HomeRunHazard

Sacramento State

Invested

$1,421.24

Value

$1.2K

PnL

-$178.48

Record

57%

3229-2433 (5662)

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR

Central Michigan

Invested

$384

Value

$528

PnL

+$144

Record

15%

150-841 (991)

6512395314597884

Sacramento State

Invested

$180.26

Value

$151.86

PnL

-$28.4

Record

50%

3301-3257 (6558)

Pan9X

Sacramento State

Invested

$136.03

Value

$106.37

PnL

-$29.66

Record

49%

692-733 (1425)

RLWGCTR<$100

Central Michigan

Invested

$50

Value

$66

PnL

+$16

Record

67%

1661-814 (2475)

GC-P<$100

Sacramento State

Invested

$91

Value

$59.5

PnL

-$31.5

Record

20%

99-384 (483)

NM-P<$100

Sacramento State

Invested

$33.36

Value

$21.81

PnL

-$11.55

Record

59%

3478-2370 (5848)

VeryLucky888<$100

Sacramento State

Invested

$20.45

Value

$13.91

PnL

-$6.54

Record

52%

497-452 (949)

ghorrock<$100

Sacramento State

Invested

$16.02

Value

$13.83

PnL

-$2.19

Record

55%

680-552 (1232)

0x2c335066FE58fe9237c3d3Dc7b275C2a034a0563-1759935795465<$100

Sacramento State

Invested

$5.99

Value

$5.93

PnL

-$0.06

Record

51%

3724-3550 (7274)

Research grade

NeutralCentral Michigan at 46%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Central Michigan

5 of 14 top traders (36%)Underdog side (market favors Sacramento State 55%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-22 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 85%

Freshness

Fresh

9h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

38% of non-arb traders are on Central Michigan. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 85% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sniperCentral Michigan 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrCentral Michigan 57% · 7

Aligned

Hand-pickedSacramento State 100% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000Sacramento State 58% · 12

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Central Michigan wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance47.7%

45.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$109.45

Max Loss

-$100.00

209.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.