Will CD Universidad de Concepción vs. O'Higgins FC end in a draw?

3 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (27%) · Yes at 98¢ · $24K held · ends Nov 5

Yes98¢No2¢Ends Thu, Nov 5, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 27%

Total Value

$24.0K

Combined PnL

$2.7K

Smart Money Entry

76.4¢ → 98.4¢

+29% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 98%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

3 of 11 top traders (27%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes98%

No2%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes3 traders

Total Value$23.8K

Total Shares24,032

Combined PnL+$5.4K

No8 traders

Total Value$231.33

Total Shares15,326

Combined PnL$-2.7K

Yes — 27%No — 73%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+3 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 88%

Freshness

Late

50h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

33% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 88% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 3

Diverging

sharpYes 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 83% · 6

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 67% · 3

Diverging

Top 1000No 67% · 6

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
LU lukibazdonauki754	Yesavg 87¢	$10.8K	$12.3K	+$1.5K	61% 960-605 (1565)
RO roscoff	Yesavg 50¢	$4.0K	$7.9K	+$3.9K	50% 174-171 (345)
xxNyx	Yesavg 97.4¢	$3.6K	$3.6K	+$38.88	82% 1815-404 (2219)
OM omnibus-076daaCTR	Noavg 31.6¢	$2.6K	$124.77	$-2.4K	50% 21194-21457 (42651)
tradecraftCTR<$100	Noavg 1.7¢	$67.64	$59.96	-$7.68	51% 6355-6138 (12493)
CA CannaeCTR<$100	Noavg 7¢	$77.04	$16.52	-$60.52	53% 16808-14937 (31745)
CI cigarettesCTR<$100	Noavg 1.8¢	$14.79	$13.71	-$1.08	53% 23554-20762 (44316)
0X 0x332a020cfAB56b019B470cA47B63fDA745D6c9a2-1724751213873CTR	Noavg 14.1¢	$127.74	$13.56	-$116.83	37% 120-203 (323)
QW qwen300.fundCTR<$100	Noavg 7.6¢	$48.85	$2.15	-$1.31	54% 12474-10723 (23197)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100	Noavg 70¢	$21	$0.45	-$20.55	58% 46712-33673 (80385)
rayvanmechelenCTR<$100	Noavg 71¢	$10	$0.21	-$9.71	53% 2579-2261 (4840)

lukibazdonauki754

Yes

Invested

$10,835.71

Value

$12.3K

PnL

+$1.5K

Record

61%

960-605 (1565)

roscoff

Yes

Invested

$3,966.64

Value

$7.9K

PnL

+$3.9K

Record

50%

174-171 (345)

xxNyx

Yes

Invested

$3,587.76

Value

$3.6K

PnL

+$38.88

Record

82%

1815-404 (2219)

omnibus-076daaCTR

Invested

$2,626.43

Value

$124.77

PnL

$-2.4K

Record

50%

21194-21457 (42651)

tradecraftCTR<$100

Invested

$67.64

Value

$59.96

PnL

-$7.68

Record

51%

6355-6138 (12493)

CannaeCTR<$100

Invested

$77.04

Value

$16.52

PnL

-$60.52

Record

53%

16808-14937 (31745)

cigarettesCTR<$100

Invested

$14.79

Value

$13.71

PnL

-$1.08

Record

53%

23554-20762 (44316)

0x332a020cfAB56b019B470cA47B63fDA745D6c9a2-1724751213873CTR

Invested

$127.74

Value

$13.56

PnL

-$116.83

Record

37%

120-203 (323)

qwen300.fundCTR<$100

Invested

$48.85

Value

$2.15

PnL

-$1.31

Record

54%

12474-10723 (23197)

VeryLucky888CTR<$100

Invested

$21

Value

$0.45

PnL

-$20.55

Record

58%

46712-33673 (80385)

rayvanmechelenCTR<$100

Invested

$10

Value

$0.21

PnL

-$9.71

Record

53%

2579-2261 (4840)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 98%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

3 of 11 top traders (27%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+3 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 88%

Freshness

Late

50h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

33% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 88% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 3

Diverging

sharpYes 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 83% · 6

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 67% · 3

Diverging

Top 1000No 67% · 6

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.4%

98.4¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.62

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.