Will Getafe CF win on 2026-11-05?

16 of 16 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 85¢ · $21K held · ends Nov 5

Yes16¢No84¢Ends Thu, Nov 5, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 100%

Total Value

$21.5K

Combined PnL

-$357.53

Smart Money Entry

85.7¢ → 84.5¢

-1% since entry · 16 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 85%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

16 of 16 top traders (100%)2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes16%

No85%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No16 traders

Total Value$21.5K

Total Shares25,482

Combined PnL-$357.53

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+36 pts consensus

Breadth

13 traders

Top 2 hold 58%

Freshness

Fresh

4h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

93% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 58% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 75% · 4

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrNo 100% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 92% · 12

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
LI Limousin	Noavg 85.6¢	$6.0K	$5.9K	-$115.37	53% 1408-1254 (2662)
FL Flaznorp	Noavg 85.3¢	$5.2K	$5.2K	-$46.49	51% 25699-24415 (50114)
VE Venusian	Noavg 86.6¢	$3.1K	$3.0K	-$93.26	51% 1368-1329 (2697)
GO GoalLineGhost	Noavg 85.5¢	$1.6K	$1.6K	-$18.59	50% 28405-28303 (56708)
CA Cannae	Noavg 85.7¢	$1.5K	$1.5K	-$21.86	53% 16795-14918 (31713)
SE sentrio	Noavg 84.9¢	$1.4K	$1.4K	-$6.67	50% 25801-25492 (51293)
NM NM-P	Noavg 86¢	$885.25	$871.08	-$14.17	64% 9920-5524 (15444)
GC GC-P	Noavg 85.8¢	$547.56	$536.18	-$11.38	64% 9962-5592 (15554)
SN SnakeBall	Noavg 86¢	$424.84	$414.96	-$9.88	51% 37655-36884 (74539)
MA MadridTime	Noavg 87.4¢	$320.61	$308.28	-$12.33	50% 1309-1291 (2600)
38 38791873984189	Noavg 85¢	$275.53	$273.78	-$1.75	48% 61030-65863 (126893)
LI LightParadox	Noavg 85.6¢	$250.15	$245.37	-$4.78	52% 1362-1281 (2643)
TO topdogbigboi	Noavg 84¢	$168	$169	+$1	47% 11682-13378 (25060)
PU purplegatto	Noavg 85.6¢	$132.57	$130.81	-$1.75	49% 6287-6447 (12734)
VeryLucky888<$100	Noavg 85¢	$26.31	$25.35	-$0.15	58% 46658-33622 (80280)
OM omnibus-076daa<$100	Noavg 86.6¢	$5.18	$5.02	-$0.09	50% 21147-21407 (42554)

Limousin

Invested

$6,033.33

Value

$5.9K

PnL

-$115.37

Record

53%

1408-1254 (2662)

Flaznorp

Invested

$5,209.65

Value

$5.2K

PnL

-$46.49

Record

51%

25699-24415 (50114)

Venusian

Invested

$3,103.82

Value

$3.0K

PnL

-$93.26

Record

51%

1368-1329 (2697)

GoalLineGhost

Invested

$1,570.35

Value

$1.6K

PnL

-$18.59

Record

50%

28405-28303 (56708)

Cannae

Invested

$1,542.9

Value

$1.5K

PnL

-$21.86

Record

53%

16795-14918 (31713)

sentrio

Invested

$1,359.9

Value

$1.4K

PnL

-$6.67

Record

50%

25801-25492 (51293)

NM-P

Invested

$885.25

Value

$871.08

PnL

-$14.17

Record

64%

9920-5524 (15444)

GC-P

Invested

$547.56

Value

$536.18

PnL

-$11.38

Record

64%

9962-5592 (15554)

SnakeBall

Invested

$424.84

Value

$414.96

PnL

-$9.88

Record

51%

37655-36884 (74539)

MadridTime

Invested

$320.61

Value

$308.28

PnL

-$12.33

Record

50%

1309-1291 (2600)

38791873984189

Invested

$275.53

Value

$273.78

PnL

-$1.75

Record

48%

61030-65863 (126893)

LightParadox

Invested

$250.15

Value

$245.37

PnL

-$4.78

Record

52%

1362-1281 (2643)

topdogbigboi

Invested

$168

Value

$169

PnL

+$1

Record

47%

11682-13378 (25060)

purplegatto

Invested

$132.57

Value

$130.81

PnL

-$1.75

Record

49%

6287-6447 (12734)

VeryLucky888<$100

Invested

$26.31

Value

$25.35

PnL

-$0.15

Record

58%

46658-33622 (80280)

omnibus-076daa<$100

Invested

$5.18

Value

$5.02

PnL

-$0.09

Record

50%

21147-21407 (42554)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 85%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

16 of 16 top traders (100%)2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+36 pts consensus

Breadth

13 traders

Top 2 hold 58%

Freshness

Fresh

4h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

93% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 58% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 75% · 4

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrNo 100% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 92% · 12

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance86.1%

84.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.6¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$16.12

Max Loss

-$100.00

116.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.