FC Lugano vs. FK Kauno Žalgiris: O/U 2.5

4 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold Over (31%) · Over at 68¢ · $1K held · ends Nov 5

Over68¢Under32¢Ends Thu, Nov 5, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 31%

Total Value

$1.1K

Combined PnL

$3.14

Smart Money Entry

70.7¢ → 67.5¢

-5% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralOver at 68%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

4 of 13 top traders (31%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over68%

Under33%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over4 traders

Total Value$737.8

Total Shares1,097

Combined PnL-$24.86

Under9 traders

Total Value$400.56

Total Shares1,252

Combined PnL+$28.01

Over — 31%Under — 69%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 73%

Freshness

Mature

13h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

31% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 73% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (3 on Over) and the top 1000 (11 on Under) disagree here.

whaleUnder 50% · 4

Diverging

ctrOver 67% · 6

Aligned

Hand-pickedOver 67% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000Under 73% · 11

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
DA darkumbreon88	Overavg 70.9¢	$372.34	$354.56	-$17.78	64% 1960-1090 (3050)
FL FlaznorpCTR	Underavg 28¢	$159.96	$182.73	+$22.77	51% 25736-24442 (50178)
PU purplegatto	Overavg 73¢	$198.58	$182.24	-$4.08	49% 6288-6447 (12735)
0xheavy888	Overavg 68¢	$136	$134	-$1	56% 7911-6321 (14232)
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100	Underavg 32.7¢	$88.15	$86.24	-$1.91	50% 1322-1299 (2621)
VeryLucky888<$100	Overavg 69¢	$69	$67	-$2	58% 46675-33635 (80310)
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100	Underavg 30.7¢	$33.13	$34.52	+$1.39	52% 1374-1289 (2663)
LI LimousinCTR<$100	Underavg 33.1¢	$33.83	$32.72	-$1.11	53% 1421-1264 (2685)
VE VenusianCTR<$100	Underavg 29¢	$29.01	$32	+$2.99	51% 1376-1340 (2716)
CA CannaeCTR<$100	Underavg 28.3¢	$22.5	$25.48	+$2.98	53% 16798-14919 (31717)
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100	Underavg 28¢	$2.31	$2.64	+$0.37	49% 14708-15378 (30086)
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100	Underavg 28¢	$1.94	$2.22	+$0.28	51% 37665-36890 (74555)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Underavg 28¢	$1.76	$2.01	+$0.25	50% 25814-25509 (51323)

darkumbreon88

Over

Invested

$372.34

Value

$354.56

PnL

-$17.78

Record

64%

1960-1090 (3050)

FlaznorpCTR

Under

Invested

$159.96

Value

$182.73

PnL

+$22.77

Record

51%

25736-24442 (50178)

purplegatto

Over

Invested

$198.58

Value

$182.24

PnL

-$4.08

Record

49%

6288-6447 (12735)

0xheavy888

Over

Invested

$136

Value

$134

PnL

-$1

Record

56%

7911-6321 (14232)

MadridTimeCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$88.15

Value

$86.24

PnL

-$1.91

Record

50%

1322-1299 (2621)

VeryLucky888<$100

Over

Invested

$69

Value

$67

PnL

-$2

Record

58%

46675-33635 (80310)

LightParadoxCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$33.13

Value

$34.52

PnL

+$1.39

Record

52%

1374-1289 (2663)

LimousinCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$33.83

Value

$32.72

PnL

-$1.11

Record

53%

1421-1264 (2685)

VenusianCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$29.01

Value

$32

PnL

+$2.99

Record

51%

1376-1340 (2716)

CannaeCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$22.5

Value

$25.48

PnL

+$2.98

Record

53%

16798-14919 (31717)

LuckyLooCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$2.31

Value

$2.64

PnL

+$0.37

Record

49%

14708-15378 (30086)

SnakeBallCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$1.94

Value

$2.22

PnL

+$0.28

Record

51%

37665-36890 (74555)

sentrioCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$1.76

Value

$2.01

PnL

+$0.25

Record

50%

25814-25509 (51323)

Research grade

NeutralOver at 68%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Over

4 of 13 top traders (31%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 73%

Freshness

Mature

13h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

31% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 73% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (3 on Over) and the top 1000 (11 on Under) disagree here.

whaleUnder 50% · 4

Diverging

ctrOver 67% · 6

Aligned

Hand-pickedOver 67% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000Under 73% · 11

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance69.6%

67.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$43.72

Max Loss

-$100.00

143.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.