Counter-Strike: Isurus vs underw0rld (BO3) - CCT South America Group Stage

10 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold Isurus (77%) · Isurus at 100¢ · $6K held · ends Nov 5

Isurus>99¢underw0rld<1¢Ends Thu, Nov 5, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Isurus

Consensus Traders

Isurus 77%

Total Value

$6.3K

Combined PnL

$202.19

Smart Money Entry

92.2¢ → 100¢

+8% since entry · 10 traders

Research grade

NeutralIsurus at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Isurus

10 of 13 top traders (77%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Isurus100%

underw0rld0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Isurus10 traders

Total Value$6.3K

Total Shares6,235

Combined PnL+$278.62

underw0rld3 traders

Total Value$24.92

Total Shares958

Combined PnL-$76.43

Isurus — 77%underw0rld — 23%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

10 traders

Top 2 hold 41%

Freshness

Fresh

4h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

77% of non-arb traders are on Isurus. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 41% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleIsurus 67% · 3

Aligned

sharpIsurus 100% · 4

Aligned

ctrIsurus 71% · 7

Aligned

Hand-pickedIsurus 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Isurus 77% · 13

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
LO looppau	Isurusavg 99.9¢	$1.4K	$1.4K	+$0	99% 12228-95 (12323)
BI BillBenter2026	Isurusavg 84.8¢	$1.0K	$1.2K	+$179.14	57% 19099-14121 (33220)
0x99a093771ad58bcfc3023cd75566415f	Isurusavg 80.8¢	$1.1K	$1.2K	+$44.37	54% 2640-2255 (4895)
0X 0xD487f513cfeAD22d76B6db4567c756b3Cf250	Isurusavg 99.4¢	$1.1K	$1.1K	+$6.65	96% 3522-128 (3650)
VP Vps1	Isurusavg 99.9¢	$1.0K	$999.5	+$0.5	96% 388-17 (405)
GA Gaditima	Isurusavg 84.1¢	$196.64	$222.3	+$25.66	48% 7113-7815 (14928)
poshposh	Isurusavg 77.5¢	$101.65	$107.73	+$6.08	57% 12394-9456 (21850)
Future-Tarot-Trader<$100	Isurusavg 73.6¢	$37.85	$50.09	+$12.25	64% 1236-687 (1923)
OM omnibus-076daa<$100	Isurusavg 84.7¢	$19.29	$22.76	+$3.47	50% 20843-21072 (41915)
0X 0x68234mjhgfvj8612543ytjsa6187235v81283CTR<$100	underw0rldavg 7.3¢	$36.63	$13	-$34.75	50% 344-340 (684)
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100	underw0rldavg 11.5¢	$52.33	$11.81	-$40.52	47% 11225-12583 (23808)
XT xtxpleasecallme<$100	Isurusavg 90¢	$4.5	$5	+$0.5	35% 18318-34086 (52404)
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100	underw0rldavg 32.1¢	$1.26	$0.1	-$1.16	51% 24452-23135 (47587)

looppau

Isurus

Invested

$1,390.67

Value

$1.4K

PnL

+$0

Record

99%

12228-95 (12323)

BillBenter2026

Isurus

Invested

$1,004.14

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$179.14

Record

57%

19099-14121 (33220)

0x99a093771ad58bcfc3023cd75566415f

Isurus

Invested

$1,129.58

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$44.37

Record

54%

2640-2255 (4895)

0xD487f513cfeAD22d76B6db4567c756b3Cf250

Isurus

Invested

$1,108.52

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$6.65

Record

96%

3522-128 (3650)

Vps1

Isurus

Invested

$1,000

Value

$999.5

PnL

+$0.5

Record

96%

388-17 (405)

Gaditima

Isurus

Invested

$196.64

Value

$222.3

PnL

+$25.66

Record

48%

7113-7815 (14928)

poshposh

Isurus

Invested

$101.65

Value

$107.73

PnL

+$6.08

Record

57%

12394-9456 (21850)

Future-Tarot-Trader<$100

Isurus

Invested

$37.85

Value

$50.09

PnL

+$12.25

Record

64%

1236-687 (1923)

omnibus-076daa<$100

Isurus

Invested

$19.29

Value

$22.76

PnL

+$3.47

Record

50%

20843-21072 (41915)

0x68234mjhgfvj8612543ytjsa6187235v81283CTR<$100

underw0rld

Invested

$36.63

Value

$13

PnL

-$34.75

Record

50%

344-340 (684)

topdogbigboiCTR<$100

underw0rld

Invested

$52.33

Value

$11.81

PnL

-$40.52

Record

47%

11225-12583 (23808)

xtxpleasecallme<$100

Isurus

Invested

$4.5

Value

PnL

+$0.5

Record

35%

18318-34086 (52404)

FlaznorpCTR<$100

underw0rld

Invested

$1.26

Value

$0.1

PnL

-$1.16

Record

51%

24452-23135 (47587)

Research grade

NeutralIsurus at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).

Smart Money Signal

Isurus

10 of 13 top traders (77%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

10 traders

Top 2 hold 41%

Freshness

Fresh

4h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

77% of non-arb traders are on Isurus. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 41% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleIsurus 67% · 3

Aligned

sharpIsurus 100% · 4

Aligned

ctrIsurus 71% · 7

Aligned

Hand-pickedIsurus 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Isurus 77% · 13

Aligned

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Isurus wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.