Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yellow Submarine, while the market favors LEGION (56%). 10 of 14 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs LEGION (BO3) - 1win Essence Play-in Group B

10 of 14 top Polymarket traders hold Yellow Submarine (71%) · Yellow Submarine at 44¢ · $25K held · ends Nov 10

Yellow Submarine44¢LEGION56¢Ends Tue, Nov 10, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yellow Submarine

Consensus Traders

Yellow Submarine 71%

3 arb excluded

Total Value

$24.5K

Combined PnL

$3.6K

Smart Money Entry

50.4¢ → 44¢

-13% since entry · 10 traders

Research grade

NeutralYellow Submarine at 44%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yellow Submarine

10 of 14 top traders (71%)Underdog side (market favors LEGION 56%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed10 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yellow Submarine44%

LEGION56%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yellow Submarine10 traders

Total Value$18.5K

Total Shares28,784

Combined PnL+$4.0K

LEGION4 traders

Total Value$879.01

Total Shares4,186

Combined PnL-$410.61

Yellow Submarine — 71%LEGION — 29%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-1 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 58%

Freshness

Fresh

3h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

69% of non-arb traders are on Yellow Submarine. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 58% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpYellow Submarine 100% · 1

Aligned

sniperYellow Submarine 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYellow Submarine 67% · 6

Aligned

Hand-pickedYellow Submarine 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Yellow Submarine 75% · 12

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
VI vibing123CTR	Yellow Submarineavg 49¢	$5.9K	$8.6K	+$2.7K	63% 1075-638 (1713)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighARB<$100	Yellow Submarineavg 66.4¢	$3.4K	$2.7K	-$750.44	54% 1606-1351 (2957)
└ Yellow Submarine leg	Yellow Submarineavg 66.4¢	$2.8K	$1.8K	-$957.65
└ LEGION leg	LEGIONavg 43.1¢	$665	$872.21	+$207.21
LooksMaxxingxCTR	Yellow Submarineavg 47.4¢	$1.7K	$2.5K	+$824.68	1% 7-628 (635)
Stickman22CTR	Yellow Submarineavg 49¢	$1.5K	$2.1K	+$660	— 0-2 (2)
AM ameisgoat11ARB<$100	Yellow Submarineavg 55.7¢	$2.0K	$2.1K	+$164.58	23% 142-486 (628)
└ LEGION leg	LEGIONavg 37.6¢	$793.07	$1.1K	+$379.02
└ Yellow Submarine leg	Yellow Submarineavg 55.7¢	$1.2K	$959.3	-$214.44
GaoJin-GamblingGodCTR	Yellow Submarineavg 61.8¢	$2.4K	$1.8K	-$627.79	1% 2-284 (286)
eblomixerCTR	Yellow Submarineavg 45.4¢	$1.4K	$1.4K	+$3.72	1% 1-197 (198)
JU JuiceFarmCTR	Yellow Submarineavg 50¢	$700	$994	+$294	— 4-1 (5)
0X 0xE16D3F2A5807999b358aFfD9445C3a09E45E5e30-1776429210592	LEGIONavg 28.6¢	$1.1K	$790.24	-$285.47	45% 403-486 (889)
BI BillBenter2026CTR	Yellow Submarineavg 66.6¢	$461.54	$492.37	+$30.84	12% 59-453 (512)
38 38791873984189ARB<$100	LEGIONavg 50.2¢	$516.25	$336.64	-$72.14	48% 752-814 (1566)
└ Yellow Submarine leg	Yellow Submarineavg 47.2¢	$151.48	$227.64	+$76.81
└ LEGION leg	LEGIONavg 50.2¢	$260.83	$109.01	-$148.95
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR	Yellow Submarineavg 49¢	$196	$284	+$88	8% 71-770 (841)
0X 0xffAaEFb5f6762Cc70cb575Da8722E8C895E38cEe-1767374935341CTR	Yellow Submarineavg 43¢	$257.79	$260.79	+$3	5% 10-175 (185)
GL glennyorkshireCTR	Yellow Submarineavg 47¢	$94	$142	+$48	49% 29-30 (59)
VeryLucky888	LEGIONavg 51.6¢	$248.95	$45.15	-$56.8	48% 215-230 (445)
OM omnibus-076daa	LEGIONavg 54¢	$109.46	$42.57	-$66.89	34% 164-316 (480)
PA Pan9X<$100	LEGIONavg 50¢	$2.5	$1.05	-$1.45	48% 407-443 (850)

vibing123CTR

Yellow Submarine

Invested

$5,897.64

Value

$8.6K

PnL

+$2.7K

Record

63%

1075-638 (1713)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighARB<$100

Yellow Submarine

Invested

$3,441.4

Value

$2.7K

PnL

-$750.44

Record

54%

1606-1351 (2957)

Both legs:

Yellow Submarine$2,776.4166.4¢-$957.65

LEGION$66543.1¢+$207.21

LooksMaxxingxCTR

Yellow Submarine

Invested

$1,660.66

Value

$2.5K

PnL

+$824.68

Record

7-628 (635)

Stickman22CTR

Yellow Submarine

Invested

$1,469.99

Value

$2.1K

PnL

+$660

Record

—

0-2 (2)

ameisgoat11ARB<$100

Yellow Submarine

Invested

$2,019.71

Value

$2.1K

PnL

+$164.58

Record

23%

142-486 (628)

Both legs:

LEGION$793.0737.6¢+$379.02

Yellow Submarine$1,173.7455.7¢-$214.44

GaoJin-GamblingGodCTR

Yellow Submarine

Invested

$2,383.88

Value

$1.8K

PnL

-$627.79

Record

2-284 (286)

eblomixerCTR

Yellow Submarine

Invested

$1,400.13

Value

$1.4K

PnL

+$3.72

Record

1-197 (198)

JuiceFarmCTR

Yellow Submarine

Invested

$700

Value

$994

PnL

+$294

Record

—

4-1 (5)

0xE16D3F2A5807999b358aFfD9445C3a09E45E5e30-1776429210592

LEGION

Invested

$1,075.71

Value

$790.24

PnL

-$285.47

Record

45%

403-486 (889)

BillBenter2026CTR

Yellow Submarine

Invested

$461.54

Value

$492.37

PnL

+$30.84

Record

12%

59-453 (512)

38791873984189ARB<$100

LEGION

Invested

$516.25

Value

$336.64

PnL

-$72.14

Record

48%

752-814 (1566)

Both legs:

Yellow Submarine$151.4847.2¢+$76.81

LEGION$260.8350.2¢-$148.95

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR

Yellow Submarine

Invested

$196

Value

$284

PnL

+$88

Record

71-770 (841)

0xffAaEFb5f6762Cc70cb575Da8722E8C895E38cEe-1767374935341CTR

Yellow Submarine

Invested

$257.79

Value

$260.79

PnL

+$3

Record

10-175 (185)

glennyorkshireCTR

Yellow Submarine

Invested

$94

Value

$142

PnL

+$48

Record

49%

29-30 (59)

VeryLucky888

LEGION

Invested

$248.95

Value

$45.15

PnL

-$56.8

Record

48%

215-230 (445)

omnibus-076daa

LEGION

Invested

$109.46

Value

$42.57

PnL

-$66.89

Record

34%

164-316 (480)

Pan9X<$100

LEGION

Invested

$2.5

Value

$1.05

PnL

-$1.45

Record

48%

407-443 (850)

Research grade

NeutralYellow Submarine at 44%

Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Yellow Submarine

10 of 14 top traders (71%)Underdog side (market favors LEGION 56%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed10 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-1 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 58%

Freshness

Fresh

3h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

69% of non-arb traders are on Yellow Submarine. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 58% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpYellow Submarine 100% · 1

Aligned

sniperYellow Submarine 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYellow Submarine 67% · 6

Aligned

Hand-pickedYellow Submarine 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Yellow Submarine 75% · 12

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yellow Submarine wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance46.2%

44.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$116.27

Max Loss

-$100.00

216.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.