Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (56%). 11 of 17 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Leeds United FC vs. Tottenham Hotspur FC: Both Teams to Score

11 of 17 top Polymarket traders hold No (65%) · No at 44¢ · $4K held · ended Nov 7

Yes56¢No44¢Ended Sat, Nov 7, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 65%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$3.9K

Combined PnL

-$270.99

Smart Money Entry

51.5¢ → 44¢

-15% since entry · 11 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 44%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

11 of 17 top traders (65%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 56%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed11 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes56%

No44%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes6 traders

Total Value$1.2K

Total Shares2,165

Combined PnL-$74.87

No11 traders

Total Value$2.6K

Total Shares5,472

Combined PnL-$196.13

Yes — 35%No — 65%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+7 pts consensus

Breadth

10 traders

Top 2 hold 49%

Freshness

Mature

19h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

6 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

63% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 49% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 60% · 5

Diverging

sharpNo 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrYes 71% · 7

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 63% · 16

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
nigiri99	Yesavg 58.5¢	$1.7K	$687.12	-$59.21	46% 8770-10463 (19233)
LI LightParadoxCTR	Noavg 45.5¢	$581.13	$613.72	+$32.6	49% 1800-1900 (3700)
GC GC-PCTR	Noavg 42¢	$999.99	$504.99	+$85	64% 10179-5769 (15948)
NM NM-PCTR	Noavg 42¢	$419.99	$479.99	+$60	64% 10182-5720 (15902)
DA darkumbreon88	Yesavg 56.1¢	$394.22	$393.48	-$0.74	64% 2039-1134 (3173)
PV pvc975CTR	Noavg 99.9¢	$732.6	$322.67	-$409.93	98% 18444-384 (18828)
SN SnakeBallCTR	Noavg 43¢	$180.06	$201	+$20.94	51% 38228-37447 (75675)
VE VenusianCTR	Noavg 48.5¢	$154.41	$152.88	-$1.53	49% 1843-1935 (3778)
RN1CTR	Noavg 47.2¢	$137.59	$139.77	+$2.19	53% 62321-54560 (116881)
MA MadridTimeCTR	Noavg 44.5¢	$117.18	$126.43	+$9.25	48% 1775-1911 (3686)
0xheavy888	Yesavg 57¢	$123.06	$107.94	-$15.11	56% 8223-6528 (14751)
VeryLucky888ARB<$100	Yesavg 54¢	$339.48	$53.21	-$1.92	58% 47503-34297 (81800)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 54¢	$27.63	$28.65	+$0.77
└ No leg	Noavg 43.9¢	$22.44	$24.56	-$2.69
38 38791873984189CTR<$100	Noavg 43¢	$27.58	$30.78	+$0.96	48% 62396-67251 (129647)
LI LimousinCTR<$100	Noavg 44¢	$60.93	$30.47	+$3.66	50% 1850-1863 (3713)
OM omnibus-076daaCTR<$100	Noavg 46.2¢	$19.85	$20.61	+$0.76	50% 21550-21844 (43394)
PA Pan9X<$100	Yesavg 57¢	$7.77	$7.92	+$0.15	54% 10453-8773 (19226)
FL Flaznorp<$100	Yesavg 56.2¢	$2.81	$2.8	+$0.03	51% 27227-25781 (53008)
SE sentrio<$100	Yesavg 55¢	$2.75	$2.8	+$0.03	50% 26409-26025 (52434)

nigiri99

Yes

Invested

$1,652.33

Value

$687.12

PnL

-$59.21

Record

46%

8770-10463 (19233)

LightParadoxCTR

Invested

$581.13

Value

$613.72

PnL

+$32.6

Record

49%

1800-1900 (3700)

GC-PCTR

Invested

$999.99

Value

$504.99

PnL

+$85

Record

64%

10179-5769 (15948)

NM-PCTR

Invested

$419.99

Value

$479.99

PnL

+$60

Record

64%

10182-5720 (15902)

darkumbreon88

Yes

Invested

$394.22

Value

$393.48

PnL

-$0.74

Record

64%

2039-1134 (3173)

pvc975CTR

Invested

$732.6

Value

$322.67

PnL

-$409.93

Record

98%

18444-384 (18828)

SnakeBallCTR

Invested

$180.06

Value

$201

PnL

+$20.94

Record

51%

38228-37447 (75675)

VenusianCTR

Invested

$154.41

Value

$152.88

PnL

-$1.53

Record

49%

1843-1935 (3778)

RN1CTR

Invested

$137.59

Value

$139.77

PnL

+$2.19

Record

53%

62321-54560 (116881)

MadridTimeCTR

Invested

$117.18

Value

$126.43

PnL

+$9.25

Record

48%

1775-1911 (3686)

0xheavy888

Yes

Invested

$123.06

Value

$107.94

PnL

-$15.11

Record

56%

8223-6528 (14751)

VeryLucky888ARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$339.48

Value

$53.21

PnL

-$1.92

Record

58%

47503-34297 (81800)

Both legs:

Yes$27.6354¢+$0.77

No$22.4443.9¢-$2.69

38791873984189CTR<$100

Invested

$27.58

Value

$30.78

PnL

+$0.96

Record

48%

62396-67251 (129647)

LimousinCTR<$100

Invested

$60.93

Value

$30.47

PnL

+$3.66

Record

50%

1850-1863 (3713)

omnibus-076daaCTR<$100

Invested

$19.85

Value

$20.61

PnL

+$0.76

Record

50%

21550-21844 (43394)

Pan9X<$100

Yes

Invested

$7.77

Value

$7.92

PnL

+$0.15

Record

54%

10453-8773 (19226)

Flaznorp<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.81

Value

$2.8

PnL

+$0.03

Record

51%

27227-25781 (53008)

sentrio<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.75

Value

$2.8

PnL

+$0.03

Record

50%

26409-26025 (52434)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 44%

Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

11 of 17 top traders (65%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 56%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed11 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+7 pts consensus

Breadth

10 traders

Top 2 hold 49%

Freshness

Mature

19h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

6 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

63% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 49% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 60% · 5

Diverging

sharpNo 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrYes 71% · 7

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 63% · 16

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance46.2%

44.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$116.27

Max Loss

-$100.00

216.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.