Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (69%). 11 of 15 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Sunderland AFC vs. Chelsea FC: O/U 1.5

11 of 15 top Polymarket traders hold Under (73%) · Under at 32¢ · $5K held · ended Nov 8

Over69¢Under31¢Ended Sun, Nov 8, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 73%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$4.9K

Combined PnL

$428.99

Smart Money Entry

24.3¢ → 31.5¢

+30% since entry · 11 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 32%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

11 of 15 top traders (73%)Underdog side (market favors Over 69%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed11 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over69%

Under32%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under11 traders

Total Value$2.6K

Total Shares8,744

Combined PnL+$477.74

Over4 traders

Total Value$842.41

Total Shares1,170

Combined PnL-$48.75

Under — 73%Over — 27%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
38 38791873984189ARB<$100	Overavg 74.4¢	$1.5K	$1.4K	+$15.81	48% 63191-68207 (131398)
└ Over leg	Overavg 74.4¢	$1.2K	$1.1K	-$93.15
└ Under leg	Underavg 21.9¢	$240.48	$345.99	+$108.96
RN1CTR	Underavg 24¢	$688.56	$875.05	+$186.49	53% 63014-55227 (118241)
LooksMaxing101CTR	Underavg 24.9¢	$498.24	$570	+$71.76	51% 888-849 (1737)
FL FlaznorpCTR	Underavg 23.5¢	$418.98	$543.95	+$124.97	51% 27272-25818 (53090)
GO GoalLineGhost	Overavg 76¢	$361.59	$330.84	-$30.74	50% 29172-29037 (58209)
DA darkumbreon88	Overavg 78¢	$289.02	$283.56	-$5.46	64% 2043-1136 (3179)
LI LimousinCTR	Underavg 25.4¢	$154.6	$191.65	+$37.05	50% 1850-1866 (3716)
NO NordhavenCap	Overavg 74.1¢	$179.17	$168.04	-$11.11	57% 2487-1893 (4380)
MA MadridTimeCTR	Underavg 23.7¢	$130.38	$164.92	+$34.54	48% 1776-1912 (3688)
VE VenusianCTR	Underavg 27.6¢	$123.47	$136.64	+$13.17	49% 1844-1936 (3780)
PA Pan9X<$100	Overavg 71.8¢	$65.19	$59.98	-$1.44	54% 10485-8797 (19282)
NM NM-PCTR<$100	Underavg 23¢	$46.29	$49.31	+$3.02	64% 10183-5729 (15912)
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100	Underavg 22.9¢	$30.01	$29.54	-$0.47	49% 1800-1902 (3702)
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100	Underavg 26¢	$13.44	$15.77	+$2.33	51% 38648-37820 (76468)
tradecraftCTR<$100	Underavg 22.3¢	$13.16	$13.87	+$0.71	51% 6523-6284 (12807)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Underavg 21.5¢	$8.97	$13.15	+$4.18	58% 23579-16943 (40522)

38791873984189ARB<$100

Over

Invested

$1,464.44

Value

$1.4K

PnL

+$15.81

Record

48%

63191-68207 (131398)

Both legs:

Over$1,184.1674.4¢-$93.15

Under$240.4821.9¢+$108.96

RN1CTR

Under

Invested

$688.56

Value

$875.05

PnL

+$186.49

Record

53%

63014-55227 (118241)

LooksMaxing101CTR

Under

Invested

$498.24

Value

$570

PnL

+$71.76

Record

51%

888-849 (1737)

FlaznorpCTR

Under

Invested

$418.98

Value

$543.95

PnL

+$124.97

Record

51%

27272-25818 (53090)

GoalLineGhost

Over

Invested

$361.59

Value

$330.84

PnL

-$30.74

Record

50%

29172-29037 (58209)

darkumbreon88

Over

Invested

$289.02

Value

$283.56

PnL

-$5.46

Record

64%

2043-1136 (3179)

LimousinCTR

Under

Invested

$154.6

Value

$191.65

PnL

+$37.05

Record

50%

1850-1866 (3716)

NordhavenCap

Over

Invested

$179.17

Value

$168.04

PnL

-$11.11

Record

57%

2487-1893 (4380)

MadridTimeCTR

Under

Invested

$130.38

Value

$164.92

PnL

+$34.54

Record

48%

1776-1912 (3688)

VenusianCTR

Under

Invested

$123.47

Value

$136.64

PnL

+$13.17

Record

49%

1844-1936 (3780)

Pan9X<$100

Over

Invested

$65.19

Value

$59.98

PnL

-$1.44

Record

54%

10485-8797 (19282)

NM-PCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$46.29

Value

$49.31

PnL

+$3.02

Record

64%

10183-5729 (15912)

LightParadoxCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$30.01

Value

$29.54

PnL

-$0.47

Record

49%

1800-1902 (3702)

SnakeBallCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$13.44

Value

$15.77

PnL

+$2.33

Record

51%

38648-37820 (76468)

tradecraftCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$13.16

Value

$13.87

PnL

+$0.71

Record

51%

6523-6284 (12807)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$8.97

Value

$13.15

PnL

+$4.18

Record

58%

23579-16943 (40522)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 32%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Under

11 of 15 top traders (73%)Underdog side (market favors Over 69%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed11 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance33.6%

31.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$197.65

Max Loss

-$100.00

297.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.