Will FC Groningen win on 2026-11-08?

8 of 17 top Polymarket traders hold No (47%) · No at 92¢ · $11K held · ended Nov 8

Yes9¢No91¢Ended Sun, Nov 8, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 47%

Total Value

$11.2K

Combined PnL

-$615.28

Smart Money Entry

55.8¢ → 91.5¢

+64% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 92%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

8 of 17 top traders (47%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes9%

No92%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No8 traders

Total Value$10.3K

Total Shares11,194

Combined PnL+$3.2K

Yes9 traders

Total Value$835.14

Total Shares8,386

Combined PnL$-3.8K

No — 47%Yes — 53%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL Flaznorp	Noavg 52.1¢	$4.0K	$5.9K	+$1.9K	51% 46870-44196 (91066)
RN1	Noavg 58.2¢	$1.4K	$2.0K	+$639.97	53% 70164-61737 (131901)
38 38791873984189	Noavg 56.7¢	$1.1K	$1.4K	+$435.44	48% 70219-75923 (146142)
WA WagerWizard	Noavg 77.2¢	$359.55	$428.22	+$68.67	71% 18400-7571 (25971)
GO GoalLineGhostCTR	Yesavg 72.5¢	$3.2K	$416.83	$-2.8K	50% 32540-32687 (65227)
PA Pan9X	Noavg 47¢	$320.66	$229.96	+$139.66	52% 27099-24604 (51703)
MA MadridTime	Noavg 89¢	$169.52	$172.38	+$2.86	48% 2032-2230 (4262)
VE VenusianCTR	Yesavg 29.9¢	$322.85	$144.68	-$178.17	48% 2079-2257 (4336)
RO Rocky31	Noavg 70¢	$99.92	$131.32	+$31.4	75% 2050-688 (2738)
UE uehehe7haha2hihia3jkst9CTR	Yesavg 55¢	$707.58	$122.31	-$585.27	58% 419-303 (722)
GC GC-P<$100	Noavg 84¢	$62.5	$52.81	+$0.31	57% 22219-16567 (38786)
LI LimousinCTR<$100	Yesavg 12¢	$61.43	$48.43	-$13	49% 2102-2190 (4292)
GA GaditimaCTR	Yesavg 41.5¢	$239.61	$46.21	-$193.41	47% 8606-9734 (18340)
LI LightParadoxCTR	Yesavg 28.3¢	$105.07	$29.73	-$75.34	48% 2039-2213 (4252)
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100	Yesavg 10¢	$14.6	$18.98	+$4.38	46% 30563-35669 (66232)
NM NM-PCTR<$100	Yesavg 15¢	$7.43	$7.44	+$0.01	57% 22329-16593 (38922)
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100	Yesavg 15¢	$0.49	$0.55	+$0.05	52% 9470-8570 (18040)

Flaznorp

Invested

$4,020.44

Value

$5.9K

PnL

+$1.9K

Record

51%

46870-44196 (91066)

RN1

Invested

$1,355.84

Value

$2.0K

PnL

+$639.97

Record

53%

70164-61737 (131901)

38791873984189

Invested

$1,125.77

Value

$1.4K

PnL

+$435.44

Record

48%

70219-75923 (146142)

WagerWizard

Invested

$359.55

Value

$428.22

PnL

+$68.67

Record

71%

18400-7571 (25971)

GoalLineGhostCTR

Yes

Invested

$3,180.12

Value

$416.83

PnL

$-2.8K

Record

50%

32540-32687 (65227)

Pan9X

Invested

$320.66

Value

$229.96

PnL

+$139.66

Record

52%

27099-24604 (51703)

MadridTime

Invested

$169.52

Value

$172.38

PnL

+$2.86

Record

48%

2032-2230 (4262)

VenusianCTR

Yes

Invested

$322.85

Value

$144.68

PnL

-$178.17

Record

48%

2079-2257 (4336)

Rocky31

Invested

$99.92

Value

$131.32

PnL

+$31.4

Record

75%

2050-688 (2738)

uehehe7haha2hihia3jkst9CTR

Yes

Invested

$707.58

Value

$122.31

PnL

-$585.27

Record

58%

419-303 (722)

GC-P<$100

Invested

$62.5

Value

$52.81

PnL

+$0.31

Record

57%

22219-16567 (38786)

LimousinCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$61.43

Value

$48.43

PnL

-$13

Record

49%

2102-2190 (4292)

GaditimaCTR

Yes

Invested

$239.61

Value

$46.21

PnL

-$193.41

Record

47%

8606-9734 (18340)

LightParadoxCTR

Yes

Invested

$105.07

Value

$29.73

PnL

-$75.34

Record

48%

2039-2213 (4252)

LuckyLooCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$14.6

Value

$18.98

PnL

+$4.38

Record

46%

30563-35669 (66232)

NM-PCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$7.43

Value

$7.44

PnL

+$0.01

Record

57%

22329-16593 (38922)

ameisgoat11CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.49

Value

$0.55

PnL

+$0.05

Record

52%

9470-8570 (18040)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 92%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

8 of 17 top traders (47%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance92.8%

91.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$7.70

Max Loss

-$100.00

107.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.