SC Cambuur-Leeuwarden vs. PSV: O/U 4.5

5 of 14 top Polymarket traders hold Over (36%) · Over at 100¢ · $5K held · ended Nov 8

Over>99¢Under<1¢Ended Sun, Nov 8, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 36%

Total Value

$4.7K

Combined PnL

-$373.34

Smart Money Entry

71.7¢ → 100¢

+39% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralOver at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

5 of 14 top traders (36%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over100%

Under0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over5 traders

Total Value$4.0K

Total Shares4,020

Combined PnL+$675.61

Under9 traders

Total Value$634.78

Total Shares3,908

Combined PnL$-1.0K

Over — 36%Under — 64%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 90%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

43% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 90% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleUnder 67% · 3

Diverging

ctrUnder 60% · 5

Diverging

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000Under 57% · 7

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL Flaznorp	Overavg 71.1¢	$1.7K	$2.2K	+$500.9	51% 46870-44196 (91066)
RN1	Overavg 55¢	$521.2	$720.56	+$199.36	53% 70164-61737 (131901)
GO GoalLineGhost	Overavg 100¢	$818.9	$603.31	-$215.59	50% 32540-32687 (65227)
38 38791873984189	Overavg 58.5¢	$263.25	$449.78	+$186.86	48% 70219-75923 (146142)
VE VenusianCTR	Underavg 27¢	$767.03	$400.22	-$366.81	48% 2079-2257 (4336)
0xheavy888CTR	Underavg 62¢	$247.66	$97.86	-$149.79	56% 8592-6809 (15401)
WA WagerWizard<$100	Overavg 95.5¢	$87.36	$91.44	+$4.08	71% 18400-7571 (25971)
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100	Underavg 21.1¢	$25.42	$50.58	+$25.15	46% 30563-35669 (66232)
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100	Underavg 37.6¢	$45.78	$44.77	-$1.01	48% 2039-2213 (4252)
LI LimousinCTR	Underavg 44.9¢	$490.34	$39.92	-$450.42	49% 2102-2190 (4292)
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100	Underavg 63¢	$5	$1.28	-$1.88	52% 9470-8570 (18040)
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100	Underavg 32.1¢	$82.02	$0.13	-$81.89	48% 2032-2230 (4262)
CI cigarettesCTR<$100	Underavg 36¢	$18	$0.03	-$17.98	50% 65438-65762 (131200)
PA pauleta23CTR<$100	Underavg 38¢	$4.34	$0.01	-$4.33	65% 25410-13589 (38999)

Flaznorp

Over

Invested

$1,652.25

Value

$2.2K

PnL

+$500.9

Record

51%

46870-44196 (91066)

RN1

Over

Invested

$521.2

Value

$720.56

PnL

+$199.36

Record

53%

70164-61737 (131901)

GoalLineGhost

Over

Invested

$818.9

Value

$603.31

PnL

-$215.59

Record

50%

32540-32687 (65227)

38791873984189

Over

Invested

$263.25

Value

$449.78

PnL

+$186.86

Record

48%

70219-75923 (146142)

VenusianCTR

Under

Invested

$767.03

Value

$400.22

PnL

-$366.81

Record

48%

2079-2257 (4336)

0xheavy888CTR

Under

Invested

$247.66

Value

$97.86

PnL

-$149.79

Record

56%

8592-6809 (15401)

WagerWizard<$100

Over

Invested

$87.36

Value

$91.44

PnL

+$4.08

Record

71%

18400-7571 (25971)

LuckyLooCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$25.42

Value

$50.58

PnL

+$25.15

Record

46%

30563-35669 (66232)

LightParadoxCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$45.78

Value

$44.77

PnL

-$1.01

Record

48%

2039-2213 (4252)

LimousinCTR

Under

Invested

$490.34

Value

$39.92

PnL

-$450.42

Record

49%

2102-2190 (4292)

ameisgoat11CTR<$100

Under

Invested

Value

$1.28

PnL

-$1.88

Record

52%

9470-8570 (18040)

MadridTimeCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$82.02

Value

$0.13

PnL

-$81.89

Record

48%

2032-2230 (4262)

cigarettesCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$18

Value

$0.03

PnL

-$17.98

Record

50%

65438-65762 (131200)

pauleta23CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$4.34

Value

$0.01

PnL

-$4.33

Record

65%

25410-13589 (38999)

Research grade

NeutralOver at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Over

5 of 14 top traders (36%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 90%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

43% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 90% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleUnder 67% · 3

Diverging

ctrUnder 60% · 5

Diverging

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000Under 57% · 7

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.