Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (80%). 10 of 13 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

CD Tenerife vs. FC Andorra: O/U 3.5

10 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold Under (77%) · Under at 20¢ · $14K held · ended Nov 2

Over80¢Under20¢Ended Mon, Nov 2, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 77%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$13.9K

Combined PnL

$2.0K

Smart Money Entry

71¢ → 19.8¢

-72% since entry · 10 traders

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 20%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

10 of 13 top traders (77%)Underdog side (market favors Over 80%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed10 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over80%

Under20%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under10 traders

Total Value$4.6K

Total Shares4,771

Combined PnL-$195.72

Over3 traders

Total Value$4.0K

Total Shares4,733

Combined PnL+$2.2K

Under — 77%Over — 23%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

10 traders

Top 2 hold 95%

Freshness

Mature

24h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

3 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

77% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 95% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Over) and the top 1000 (13 on Under) disagree here.

whaleUnder 67% · 3

Aligned

ctrUnder 82% · 11

Aligned

Hand-pickedOver 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Under 77% · 13

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL FlaznorpARB<$100	Underavg 69.9¢	$4.9K	$4.5K	-$395.99	51% 23350-22134 (45484)
└ Over leg	Overavg 32.7¢	$1.4K	$3.5K	+$2.1K
└ Under leg	Underavg 69.9¢	$3.5K	$980.54	$-2.5K
GO GoalLineGhostCTR	Underavg 84.2¢	$3.1K	$4.1K	+$924.37	50% 27131-27060 (54191)
RN1	Overavg 24.3¢	$1.7K	$3.9K	+$2.2K	53% 58869-51174 (110043)
UP UpTheBluesARB<$100	Underavg 62.4¢	$837.28	$821.15	-$16.13	58% 49422-35504 (84926)
└ Over leg	Overavg 20.4¢	$153.73	$604.11	+$450.38
└ Under leg	Underavg 62.4¢	$683.55	$217.04	-$466.51
MR MrBentlyCTR	Underavg 68¢	$1.0K	$298.96	-$727.47	53% 569-509 (1078)
TO topdogbigboiCTR	Underavg 44.5¢	$211.69	$103.6	-$108.09	47% 10535-11772 (22307)
LU LuckyLooCTR	Underavg 71.3¢	$135.39	$49.04	-$79.16	49% 14098-14659 (28757)
DI dips.CTR	Underavg 63.3¢	$155.73	$32.71	-$123.02	46% 7593-8827 (16420)
poshposhCTR<$100	Underavg 61.2¢	$85.68	$27.72	-$51.94	57% 11829-8912 (20741)
SM smithagentCTR<$100	Underavg 20.9¢	$28.7	$27.2	-$1.51	48% 5267-5648 (10915)
HRTrading<$100	Overavg 26¢	$5.33	$12.43	+$6.54	51% 7310-7059 (14369)
FE ferdinand2<$100	Overavg 23.9¢	$1.71	$5.73	+$4.03	48% 6134-6542 (12676)
0X 0x6b25c5c4d1e681d2203297803793ad8c732b7a69CTR<$100	Underavg 70¢	$16.77	$4.74	-$12.03	50% 1332-1342 (2674)
SU suntoriCTR<$100	Underavg 72.7¢	$12.37	$3.37	-$11.98	45% 13592-16514 (30106)
US User7429CTR<$100	Underavg 73¢	$7.3	$1.98	-$4.89	56% 8643-6927 (15570)

FlaznorpARB<$100

Under

Invested

$4,865.08

Value

$4.5K

PnL

-$395.99

Record

51%

23350-22134 (45484)

Both legs:

Over$1,440.7632.7¢+$2.1K

Under$3,463.6369.9¢$-2.5K

GoalLineGhostCTR

Under

Invested

$3,144.96

Value

$4.1K

PnL

+$924.37

Record

50%

27131-27060 (54191)

RN1

Over

Invested

$1,721.67

Value

$3.9K

PnL

+$2.2K

Record

53%

58869-51174 (110043)

UpTheBluesARB<$100

Under

Invested

$837.28

Value

$821.15

PnL

-$16.13

Record

58%

49422-35504 (84926)

Both legs:

Over$153.7320.4¢+$450.38

Under$683.5562.4¢-$466.51

MrBentlyCTR

Under

Invested

$1,026.43

Value

$298.96

PnL

-$727.47

Record

53%

569-509 (1078)

topdogbigboiCTR

Under

Invested

$211.69

Value

$103.6

PnL

-$108.09

Record

47%

10535-11772 (22307)

LuckyLooCTR

Under

Invested

$135.39

Value

$49.04

PnL

-$79.16

Record

49%

14098-14659 (28757)

dips.CTR

Under

Invested

$155.73

Value

$32.71

PnL

-$123.02

Record

46%

7593-8827 (16420)

poshposhCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$85.68

Value

$27.72

PnL

-$51.94

Record

57%

11829-8912 (20741)

smithagentCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$28.7

Value

$27.2

PnL

-$1.51

Record

48%

5267-5648 (10915)

HRTrading<$100

Over

Invested

$5.33

Value

$12.43

PnL

+$6.54

Record

51%

7310-7059 (14369)

ferdinand2<$100

Over

Invested

$1.71

Value

$5.73

PnL

+$4.03

Record

48%

6134-6542 (12676)

0x6b25c5c4d1e681d2203297803793ad8c732b7a69CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$16.77

Value

$4.74

PnL

-$12.03

Record

50%

1332-1342 (2674)

suntoriCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$12.37

Value

$3.37

PnL

-$11.98

Record

45%

13592-16514 (30106)

User7429CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$7.3

Value

$1.98

PnL

-$4.89

Record

56%

8643-6927 (15570)

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 20%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

Smart Money Signal

Under

10 of 13 top traders (77%)Underdog side (market favors Over 80%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed10 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

10 traders

Top 2 hold 95%

Freshness

Mature

24h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

3 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

77% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 95% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Over) and the top 1000 (13 on Under) disagree here.

whaleUnder 67% · 3

Aligned

ctrUnder 82% · 11

Aligned

Hand-pickedOver 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Under 77% · 13

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance21.6%

19.8¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$362.46

Max Loss

-$100.00

462.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.