Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (51%). 11 of 13 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Will CE Sabadell FC win on 2026-11-09?

11 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold No (85%) · No at 50¢ · $5K held · ended Nov 9

Yes51¢No49¢Ended Mon, Nov 9, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 85%

Total Value

$5.5K

Combined PnL

$175.69

Smart Money Entry

48.1¢ → 49.5¢

+3% since entry · 11 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 50%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

11 of 13 top traders (85%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 51%)11 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes51%

No50%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes2 traders

Total Value$1.7K

Total Shares3,348

Combined PnL+$17.01

No11 traders

Total Value$3.8K

Total Shares7,251

Combined PnL+$158.68

Yes — 15%No — 85%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 81%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

89% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 81% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

Top 1000No 89% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
LI Liquidifier	Yesavg 50¢	$1.7K	$1.7K	+$17.71	—
FL FlaznorpCTR	Noavg 46.7¢	$1.3K	$1.4K	+$112.1	—
GO GoalLineGhostCTR	Noavg 50¢	$1.0K	$1.0K	+$10.15	—
RN1CTR	Noavg 50¢	$526.94	$521.7	-$5.24	—
rayvanmechelenCTR	Noavg 46¢	$968.92	$479.62	+$33.91	—
NM NM-PCTR	Noavg 49¢	$152.88	$154.44	+$1.56	—
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100	Noavg 45¢	$86.88	$89.6	+$2.72	—
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Noavg 44¢	$55.49	$57.15	+$1.66	—
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100	Noavg 51¢	$42.23	$41.82	-$0.41	—
OM omnibus-076daaCTR<$100	Noavg 45¢	$19.26	$20.72	+$1.47	—
tradecraft<$100	Yesavg 54¢	$20.1	$10.15	-$0.7	—
MU Multicoloured-SerfCTR<$100	Noavg 44¢	$5.43	$6.11	+$0.68	—
VE VenusianCTR<$100	Noavg 48¢	$6.38	$3.16	+$0.1	—

Liquidifier

Yes

Invested

$1,662.79

Value

$1.7K

PnL

+$17.71

Record

—

FlaznorpCTR

Invested

$1,250.7

Value

$1.4K

PnL

+$112.1

Record

—

GoalLineGhostCTR

Invested

$1,014.91

Value

$1.0K

PnL

+$10.15

Record

—

RN1CTR

Invested

$526.94

Value

$521.7

PnL

-$5.24

Record

—

rayvanmechelenCTR

Invested

$968.92

Value

$479.62

PnL

+$33.91

Record

—

NM-PCTR

Invested

$152.88

Value

$154.44

PnL

+$1.56

Record

—

LightParadoxCTR<$100

Invested

$86.88

Value

$89.6

PnL

+$2.72

Record

—

sentrioCTR<$100

Invested

$55.49

Value

$57.15

PnL

+$1.66

Record

—

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100

Invested

$42.23

Value

$41.82

PnL

-$0.41

Record

—

omnibus-076daaCTR<$100

Invested

$19.26

Value

$20.72

PnL

+$1.47

Record

—

tradecraft<$100

Yes

Invested

$20.1

Value

$10.15

PnL

-$0.7

Record

—

Multicoloured-SerfCTR<$100

Invested

$5.43

Value

$6.11

PnL

+$0.68

Record

—

VenusianCTR<$100

Invested

$6.38

Value

$3.16

PnL

+$0.1

Record

—

Research grade

NeutralNo at 50%

Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

11 of 13 top traders (85%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 51%)11 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 81%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

89% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 81% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

Top 1000No 89% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance51.7%

49.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$93.24

Max Loss

-$100.00

193.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.