Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was Down — but Up won instead.
Ethereum Up or Down - November 1, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET
Resolved Up. 63% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was wrong.
💀
Lost
8
Down 63%
1 arb excluded
$225.43
-$77.67
Smart Money Signal
5 of 8 top traders (63%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
AA aaa221 | Upavg 66.7¢ | $134.88 | $87.92 | -$11.36 | 64% 24882-13745 (38627) |
TM tmsd-testARB<$100 | Downavg 39.9¢ | $72.96 | $69 | -$3.96 | 54% 14578-12427 (27005) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 44.6¢ | $30.77 | $69 | +$38.23 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 39.9¢ | $42.19 | — | -$42.19 | |
PL ply-pm2<$100 | Upavg 68.1¢ | $66.77 | $60.45 | -$6.32 | 51% 8411-7930 (16341) |
 Polkadot-FrogCTR<$100 | Downavg 51.6¢ | $32.7 | — | -$32.7 | 64% 58907-33468 (92375) |
 ohioismCTR<$100 | Downavg 47.3¢ | $8.6 | — | -$8.6 | 64% 40639-23326 (63965) |
HO hoodquant<$100 | Upavg 99¢ | $7.98 | $8.06 | +$0.08 | 93% 24319-1811 (26130) |
KA Kathod-Shi-14CTR<$100 | Downavg 59.3¢ | $9.45 | — | -$9.45 | 55% 18379-14972 (33351) |
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530CTR<$100 | Downavg 47¢ | $2.35 | — | -$2.35 | 56% 58635-45291 (103926) |
AN antsaslykuCTR<$100 | Downavg 14.6¢ | $6.97 | — | -$6.97 | 65% 112572-59423 (171995) |
Invested
$134.88
Value
$87.92
PnL
-$11.36
Record
64%
24882-13745 (38627)
Invested
$72.96
Value
$69
PnL
-$3.96
Record
54%
14578-12427 (27005)
Both legs:
Invested
$66.77
Value
$60.45
PnL
-$6.32
Record
51%
8411-7930 (16341)
Polkadot-FrogCTR<$100Invested
$32.7
Value
—
PnL
-$32.7
Record
64%
58907-33468 (92375)
ohioismCTR<$100Invested
$8.6
Value
—
PnL
-$8.6
Record
64%
40639-23326 (63965)
Invested
$7.98
Value
$8.06
PnL
+$0.08
Record
93%
24319-1811 (26130)
Invested
$9.45
Value
—
PnL
-$9.45
Record
55%
18379-14972 (33351)
Invested
$2.35
Value
—
PnL
-$2.35
Record
56%
58635-45291 (103926)
Invested
$6.97
Value
—
PnL
-$6.97
Record
65%
112572-59423 (171995)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
aaa221
Up — $87.92
tmsd-test
ARBArbitrage — excluded
ply-pm2
Up — $60.45
Polkadot-Frog
CTRDown — $0
ohioism
CTRDown — $0
hoodquant
Up — $8.06
Kathod-Shi-14
CTRDown — $0
0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530
CTRDown — $0
antsaslyku
CTRDown — $0