Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down
Ethereum Up or Down - November 1, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET
Resolved Down. 80% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
10
Down 80%
1 arb excluded
$517.42
$3.53
Smart Money Signal
8 of 10 top traders (80%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HO hoodquant | Downavg 98¢ | $104.41 | $106.54 | +$2.13 | 93% 24291-1810 (26101) |
 Polkadot-FrogARB<$100 | Downavg 63.5¢ | $91.74 | $100 | +$8.27 | 64% 58895-33457 (92352) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 63.5¢ | $63.45 | $100 | +$36.55 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 41.3¢ | $28.29 | — | -$28.29 | |
AL almach | Downavg 70.2¢ | $79.01 | $112.55 | +$33.54 | 55% 48790-40333 (89123) |
PL ply-pm2<$100 | Downavg 59.1¢ | $59.45 | $72.84 | +$13.39 | 51% 8396-7911 (16307) |
AA aaa221<$100 | Downavg 67.6¢ | $79.08 | $59.99 | +$9.05 | 64% 24852-13722 (38574) |
 BoneOhio<$100 | Downavg 68¢ | $23.04 | $20 | -$3.04 | 74% 103036-36547 (139583) |
TM tmsd-testCTR<$100 | Upavg 12.5¢ | $44.29 | — | -$44.29 | 54% 14576-12422 (26998) |
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR<$100 | Upavg 52.6¢ | $25.97 | — | -$25.97 | 58% 38482-27564 (66046) |
 ohioism<$100 | Downavg 69¢ | $13.8 | $20 | +$6.2 | 64% 40631-23312 (63943) |
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025<$100 | Downavg 46¢ | $9.2 | $20 | +$10.8 | 58% 61075-44602 (105677) |
DV dvasdkasodk<$100 | Downavg 69¢ | $3.8 | $5.51 | +$1.71 | 52% 91299-85747 (177046) |
Invested
$104.41
Value
$106.54
PnL
+$2.13
Record
93%
24291-1810 (26101)
Polkadot-FrogARB<$100Invested
$91.74
Value
$100
PnL
+$8.27
Record
64%
58895-33457 (92352)
Both legs:
Invested
$79.01
Value
$112.55
PnL
+$33.54
Record
55%
48790-40333 (89123)
Invested
$59.45
Value
$72.84
PnL
+$13.39
Record
51%
8396-7911 (16307)
Invested
$79.08
Value
$59.99
PnL
+$9.05
Record
64%
24852-13722 (38574)
BoneOhio<$100Invested
$23.04
Value
$20
PnL
-$3.04
Record
74%
103036-36547 (139583)
Invested
$44.29
Value
—
PnL
-$44.29
Record
54%
14576-12422 (26998)
Invested
$25.97
Value
—
PnL
-$25.97
Record
58%
38482-27564 (66046)
ohioism<$100Invested
$13.8
Value
$20
PnL
+$6.2
Record
64%
40631-23312 (63943)
Invested
$9.2
Value
$20
PnL
+$10.8
Record
58%
61075-44602 (105677)
Invested
$3.8
Value
$5.51
PnL
+$1.71
Record
52%
91299-85747 (177046)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
hoodquant
Down — $106.54
Polkadot-Frog
ARBArbitrage — excluded
almach
Down — $112.55
ply-pm2
Down — $72.84
aaa221
Down — $59.99
BoneOhio
Down — $20
tmsd-test
CTRUp — $0
0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518
CTRUp — $0
ohioism
Down — $20
0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025
Down — $20