Le Havre AC vs. FC Lorient: O/U 2.5

2 of 17 top Polymarket traders hold Under (12%) · Under at 65¢ · $17K held · ended Nov 8

Over36¢Under64¢Ended Sun, Nov 8, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 12%

Total Value

$16.9K

Combined PnL

$-1.7K

Smart Money Entry

56.6¢ → 64.5¢

+14% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 65%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

2 of 17 top traders (12%)15 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over36%

Under65%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under2 traders

Total Value$7.6K

Total Shares19,129

Combined PnL$-3.2K

Over15 traders

Total Value$9.3K

Total Shares14,996

Combined PnL+$1.5K

Under — 12%Over — 88%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

12% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleOver 88% · 8

Diverging

sharpOver 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrOver 93% · 14

Diverging

Hand-pickedOver 100% · 3

Diverging

Top 1000Over 88% · 16

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FE ferrariChampions2026	Underavg 56.6¢	$19.0K	$7.5K	$-3.3K	46% 33216-38836 (72052)
FL FlaznorpCTR	Overavg 44.4¢	$3.6K	$3.1K	-$133.49	51% 46870-44196 (91066)
HI hi774cCTR	Overavg 43¢	$2.6K	$1.6K	+$450.67	46% 5609-6517 (12126)
GO GoalLineGhostCTR	Overavg 44¢	$2.4K	$1.4K	+$333.39	50% 32540-32687 (65227)
VeryLucky888CTR	Overavg 43.5¢	$2.1K	$1.3K	+$368.97	59% 52299-37045 (89344)
NM NM-PCTR	Overavg 43¢	$850	$514.25	+$148.75	57% 22329-16593 (38922)
GC GC-PCTR	Overavg 43¢	$850	$514.25	+$148.75	57% 22219-16567 (38786)
KY Kyn008CTR	Overavg 44¢	$260.1	$351.73	+$91.63	48% 313-335 (648)
AN Anon455CTR	Overavg 43¢	$107.5	$151.25	+$43.75	55% 3933-3280 (7213)
SE sentrioCTR	Overavg 46¢	$123.23	$124.08	+$0.85	51% 27916-27361 (55277)
38 38791873984189CTR	Overavg 43.3¢	$383	$96.8	+$27.49	48% 70219-75923 (146142)
RN1CTR<$100	Overavg 41.3¢	$90.06	$86.91	-$3.15	53% 70164-61737 (131901)
0xheavy888CTR<$100	Overavg 43¢	$59.77	$84.1	+$24.33	56% 8592-6809 (15401)
SH shiifoo<$100	Underavg 50.2¢	$55.29	$68.22	+$12.93	48% 5119-5648 (10767)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Overavg 43.4¢	$41	$25.22	+$7.44	52% 27099-24604 (51703)
dips.CTR<$100	Overavg 56¢	$11.2	$12.1	+$0.9	46% 12026-13917 (25943)
WA WagerWizardCTR<$100	Overavg 47¢	$5	$3.03	+$0.68	71% 18400-7571 (25971)

ferrariChampions2026

Under

Invested

$19,018.57

Value

$7.5K

PnL

$-3.3K

Record

46%

33216-38836 (72052)

FlaznorpCTR

Over

Invested

$3,624.75

Value

$3.1K

PnL

-$133.49

Record

51%

46870-44196 (91066)

hi774cCTR

Over

Invested

$2,575.27

Value

$1.6K

PnL

+$450.67

Record

46%

5609-6517 (12126)

GoalLineGhostCTR

Over

Invested

$2,416.29

Value

$1.4K

PnL

+$333.39

Record

50%

32540-32687 (65227)

VeryLucky888CTR

Over

Invested

$2,054.33

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$368.97

Record

59%

52299-37045 (89344)

NM-PCTR

Over

Invested

$850

Value

$514.25

PnL

+$148.75

Record

57%

22329-16593 (38922)

GC-PCTR

Over

Invested

$850

Value

$514.25

PnL

+$148.75

Record

57%

22219-16567 (38786)

Kyn008CTR

Over

Invested

$260.1

Value

$351.73

PnL

+$91.63

Record

48%

313-335 (648)

Anon455CTR

Over

Invested

$107.5

Value

$151.25

PnL

+$43.75

Record

55%

3933-3280 (7213)

sentrioCTR

Over

Invested

$123.23

Value

$124.08

PnL

+$0.85

Record

51%

27916-27361 (55277)

38791873984189CTR

Over

Invested

$383

Value

$96.8

PnL

+$27.49

Record

48%

70219-75923 (146142)

RN1CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$90.06

Value

$86.91

PnL

-$3.15

Record

53%

70164-61737 (131901)

0xheavy888CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$59.77

Value

$84.1

PnL

+$24.33

Record

56%

8592-6809 (15401)

shiifoo<$100

Under

Invested

$55.29

Value

$68.22

PnL

+$12.93

Record

48%

5119-5648 (10767)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$41

Value

$25.22

PnL

+$7.44

Record

52%

27099-24604 (51703)

dips.CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$11.2

Value

$12.1

PnL

+$0.9

Record

46%

12026-13917 (25943)

WagerWizardCTR<$100

Over

Invested

Value

$3.03

PnL

+$0.68

Record

71%

18400-7571 (25971)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 65%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Under

2 of 17 top traders (12%)15 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

12% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleOver 88% · 8

Diverging

sharpOver 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrOver 93% · 14

Diverging

Hand-pickedOver 100% · 3

Diverging

Top 1000Over 88% · 16

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance66.6%

64.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$50.08

Max Loss

-$100.00

150.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.