Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Deborah Chiesa — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Deborah Chiesa
W50 Heraklion: Deborah Chiesa vs Sarah Van Emst
Resolved Deborah Chiesa. 40% of the top Polymarket traders held Deborah Chiesa. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
15
Deborah Chiesa 36%
1 arb excluded
$13.7K
$1.8K
Smart Money Signal
6 of 15 top traders (40%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed9 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
ST stepanka1234 | Deborah Chiesaavg 64.9¢ | $7.6K | $11.7K | +$4.6K | 77% 54-16 (70) |
 RN1 | Deborah Chiesaavg 85.1¢ | $1.1K | $1.2K | +$183.12 | 53% 60059-52427 (112486) |
GA GamblingOdysseyCTR | Sarah Van Emstavg 39¢ | $2.1K | — | $-2.1K | 51% 903-853 (1756) |
38 38791873984189 | Deborah Chiesaavg 86.9¢ | $549.69 | $411.73 | -$92.76 | 48% 59237-63255 (122492) |
FL FlaznorpARB<$100 | Sarah Van Emstavg 29.6¢ | $541.66 | $209.5 | -$332.16 | 51% 24219-22949 (47168) |
| └ Deborah Chiesa leg | Deborah Chiesaavg 90.2¢ | $189.03 | $209.5 | +$20.47 | |
| └ Sarah Van Emst leg | Sarah Van Emstavg 29.6¢ | $352.62 | — | -$352.62 | |
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR | Sarah Van Emstavg 16.9¢ | $389.86 | — | -$389.86 | 46% 1391-1643 (3034) |
 poshposh | Deborah Chiesaavg 90¢ | $199.4 | $150 | -$49.4 | 57% 12266-9326 (21592) |
LU LuckyLooCTR | Sarah Van Emstavg 30.6¢ | $239.65 | — | -$239.65 | 49% 14323-15001 (29324) |
OM omnibus-076daa<$100 | Deborah Chiesaavg 69¢ | $17.67 | $16.16 | -$4 | 50% 20734-20980 (41714) |
CI cigarettesCTR<$100 | Sarah Van Emstavg 33.4¢ | $42.26 | — | -$42.26 | 53% 22623-19873 (42496) |
TH thestingsnakeCTR<$100 | Sarah Van Emstavg 9.4¢ | $27.06 | — | -$4.41 | 60% 4348-2912 (7260) |
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100 | Sarah Van Emstavg 32.1¢ | $15.71 | — | -$15.71 | 51% 1093-1042 (2135) |
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100 | Sarah Van Emstavg 33.1¢ | $8.11 | — | -$8.11 | 52% 1146-1041 (2187) |
LI LimousinCTR<$100 | Sarah Van Emstavg 33.1¢ | $1.65 | — | -$1.65 | 54% 1189-1028 (2217) |
LR lryyyCTR<$100 | Sarah Van Emstavg 28¢ | $0.28 | — | -$0.28 | 47% 9222-10346 (19568) |
EU Eulhunter<$100 | Deborah Chiesaavg 90¢ | — | — | +$0 | 54% 6178-5224 (11402) |
Invested
$7,584.28
Value
$11.7K
PnL
+$4.6K
Record
77%
54-16 (70)
RN1Invested
$1,056.88
Value
$1.2K
PnL
+$183.12
Record
53%
60059-52427 (112486)
Invested
$2,145
Value
—
PnL
$-2.1K
Record
51%
903-853 (1756)
Invested
$549.69
Value
$411.73
PnL
-$92.76
Record
48%
59237-63255 (122492)
Invested
$541.66
Value
$209.5
PnL
-$332.16
Record
51%
24219-22949 (47168)
Both legs:
Invested
$389.86
Value
—
PnL
-$389.86
Record
46%
1391-1643 (3034)
poshposhInvested
$199.4
Value
$150
PnL
-$49.4
Record
57%
12266-9326 (21592)
Invested
$239.65
Value
—
PnL
-$239.65
Record
49%
14323-15001 (29324)
Invested
$17.67
Value
$16.16
PnL
-$4
Record
50%
20734-20980 (41714)
Invested
$42.26
Value
—
PnL
-$42.26
Record
53%
22623-19873 (42496)
Invested
$27.06
Value
—
PnL
-$4.41
Record
60%
4348-2912 (7260)
Invested
$15.71
Value
—
PnL
-$15.71
Record
51%
1093-1042 (2135)
Invested
$8.11
Value
—
PnL
-$8.11
Record
52%
1146-1041 (2187)
Invested
$1.65
Value
—
PnL
-$1.65
Record
54%
1189-1028 (2217)
Invested
$0.28
Value
—
PnL
-$0.28
Record
47%
9222-10346 (19568)
Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
54%
6178-5224 (11402)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
stepanka1234
Deborah Chiesa — $11.7K
RN1
Deborah Chiesa — $1.2K
GamblingOdyssey
CTRSarah Van Emst — $0
38791873984189
Deborah Chiesa — $411.73
Flaznorp
ARBArbitrage — excluded
keeptheblueflagflyinghigh
CTRSarah Van Emst — $0
poshposh
Deborah Chiesa — $150
LuckyLoo
CTRSarah Van Emst — $0
omnibus-076daa
Deborah Chiesa — $16.16
cigarettes
CTRSarah Van Emst — $0