W50 Heraklion: Lia Karatancheva vs Eliska Tichackova

8 of 15 top Polymarket traders hold Eliska Tichackova (53%) · Eliska Tichackova at 100¢ · $6K held · ends Nov 10

Lia Karatancheva<1¢Eliska Tichackova>99¢Ends Tue, Nov 10, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Eliska Tichackova

Consensus Traders

Eliska Tichackova 53%

Total Value

$6.1K

Combined PnL

-$93.87

Smart Money Entry

83¢ → 100¢

+20% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

NeutralEliska Tichackova at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Eliska Tichackova

8 of 15 top traders (53%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Lia Karatancheva0%

Eliska Tichackova100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Eliska Tichackova8 traders

Total Value$5.4K

Total Shares6,007

Combined PnL+$383.82

Lia Karatancheva7 traders

Total Value$745.51

Total Shares6,980

Combined PnL-$477.69

Eliska Tichackova — 53%Lia Karatancheva — 47%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 80%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

55% of non-arb traders are on Eliska Tichackova. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 80% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleEliska Tichackova 50% · 4

Aligned

sharpEliska Tichackova 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrLia Karatancheva 57% · 7

Diverging

Hand-pickedEliska Tichackova 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Eliska Tichackova 55% · 11

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
alpheclabs2	Eliska Tichackovaavg 84.2¢	$2.3K	$2.4K	+$128.64	47% 1084-1230 (2314)
CA CandleHammerDrums	Eliska Tichackovaavg 84.3¢	$1.6K	$1.7K	+$90.51	52% 6679-6192 (12871)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR	Lia Karatanchevaavg 16.9¢	$1.1K	$722.9	-$385.69	47% 1278-1452 (2730)
RN1	Eliska Tichackovaavg 70.9¢	$371.04	$465.56	+$94.53	54% 58805-51089 (109894)
poshposh	Eliska Tichackovaavg 84¢	$398.64	$422.53	+$23.89	57% 11782-8859 (20641)
OM omnibus-076daa	Eliska Tichackovaavg 90¢	$224.88	$246.56	+$21.68	50% 20079-20419 (40498)
38 38791873984189<$100	Eliska Tichackovaavg 72.3¢	$75.16	$92.56	+$17.4	48% 14253-15743 (29996)
TH thestingsnake<$100	Eliska Tichackovaavg 68¢	$21.62	$28.3	+$6.68	60% 4192-2806 (6998)
LI LightParadoxCTR	Lia Karatanchevaavg 45¢	$214.12	$16.06	-$80.29	53% 810-720 (1530)
PA pauleta23CTR<$100	Lia Karatanchevaavg 11¢	$5.49	$5.49	+$0	66% 23774-12031 (35805)
XT xtxpleasecallme<$100	Eliska Tichackovaavg 90¢	$4.5	$5	+$0.5	35% 17396-32076 (49472)
EU EulhunterCTR<$100	Lia Karatanchevaavg 27.3¢	$2.47	$0.99	-$1.48	55% 6035-5035 (11070)
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100	Lia Karatanchevaavg 8.4¢	$9.2	$0.06	-$9.14	47% 10486-11691 (22177)
CI cigarettesCTR<$100	Lia Karatanchevaavg 1¢	$0.19	$0.01	-$0.18	54% 21895-19024 (40919)
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR<$100	Lia Karatanchevaavg 13¢	$0.91	$0	-$0.91	59% 31262-21951 (53213)

alpheclabs2

Eliska Tichackova

Invested

$2,277.91

Value

$2.4K

PnL

+$128.64

Record

47%

1084-1230 (2314)

CandleHammerDrums

Eliska Tichackova

Invested

$1,616.38

Value

$1.7K

PnL

+$90.51

Record

52%

6679-6192 (12871)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR

Lia Karatancheva

Invested

$1,108.59

Value

$722.9

PnL

-$385.69

Record

47%

1278-1452 (2730)

RN1

Eliska Tichackova

Invested

$371.04

Value

$465.56

PnL

+$94.53

Record

54%

58805-51089 (109894)

poshposh

Eliska Tichackova

Invested

$398.64

Value

$422.53

PnL

+$23.89

Record

57%

11782-8859 (20641)

omnibus-076daa

Eliska Tichackova

Invested

$224.88

Value

$246.56

PnL

+$21.68

Record

50%

20079-20419 (40498)

38791873984189<$100

Eliska Tichackova

Invested

$75.16

Value

$92.56

PnL

+$17.4

Record

48%

14253-15743 (29996)

thestingsnake<$100

Eliska Tichackova

Invested

$21.62

Value

$28.3

PnL

+$6.68

Record

60%

4192-2806 (6998)

LightParadoxCTR

Lia Karatancheva

Invested

$214.12

Value

$16.06

PnL

-$80.29

Record

53%

810-720 (1530)

pauleta23CTR<$100

Lia Karatancheva

Invested

$5.49

Value

$5.49

PnL

+$0

Record

66%

23774-12031 (35805)

xtxpleasecallme<$100

Eliska Tichackova

Invested

$4.5

Value

PnL

+$0.5

Record

35%

17396-32076 (49472)

EulhunterCTR<$100

Lia Karatancheva

Invested

$2.47

Value

$0.99

PnL

-$1.48

Record

55%

6035-5035 (11070)

topdogbigboiCTR<$100

Lia Karatancheva

Invested

$9.2

Value

$0.06

PnL

-$9.14

Record

47%

10486-11691 (22177)

cigarettesCTR<$100

Lia Karatancheva

Invested

$0.19

Value

$0.01

PnL

-$0.18

Record

54%

21895-19024 (40919)

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR<$100

Lia Karatancheva

Invested

$0.91

Value

PnL

-$0.91

Record

59%

31262-21951 (53213)

Research grade

NeutralEliska Tichackova at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Eliska Tichackova

8 of 15 top traders (53%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 80%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

55% of non-arb traders are on Eliska Tichackova. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 80% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleEliska Tichackova 50% · 4

Aligned

sharpEliska Tichackova 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrLia Karatancheva 57% · 7

Diverging

Hand-pickedEliska Tichackova 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Eliska Tichackova 55% · 11

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Eliska Tichackova wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.