Elche CF vs. Valencia CF: O/U 0.5

5 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Over (45%) · Over at 100¢ · $9K held · ended Nov 1

Over>99¢Under<1¢Ended Sun, Nov 1, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 45%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$8.7K

Combined PnL

$342.99

Smart Money Entry

81.1¢ → 100¢

+23% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralOver at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

5 of 11 top traders (45%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over100%

Under0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over5 traders

Total Value$4.9K

Total Shares4,949

Combined PnL+$835.61

Under6 traders

Total Value$829.97

Total Shares5,579

Combined PnL-$492.61

Over — 45%Under — 55%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GO GoalLineGhostARB<$100	Overavg 87.3¢	$2.2K	$3.0K	+$816.3	50% 25689-25525 (51214)
└ Under leg	Underavg 15.4¢	$739.25	$2.1K	+$1.3K
└ Over leg	Overavg 87.3¢	$1.5K	$959.58	-$510.29
RN1	Overavg 71.7¢	$2.1K	$3.0K	+$837.06	54% 57187-49444 (106631)
FO Forecastication2	Overavg 93¢	$1.1K	$1.1K	-$5.93	50% 7127-7172 (14299)
bernardi22	Overavg 98.6¢	$734.26	$737.03	+$2.76	56% 1300-1021 (2321)
SN SnakeBallCTR	Underavg 13.4¢	$247.88	$696.05	+$448.17	50% 33888-33462 (67350)
UP UpTheBluesCTR	Underavg 27¢	$1.0K	$69.72	-$939.25	59% 46944-33223 (80167)
OM omnibus-076daaCTR<$100	Underavg 38¢	$60.8	$63.2	+$2.4	50% 19465-19831 (39296)
0X 0x3bf57663998170f8Ca96c5E91fef4092A8aa2307-1780525562609<$100	Overavg 95¢	$41.62	$43.37	+$1.75	82% 2441-547 (2988)
PA pauleta23<$100	Overavg 94¢	$1.88	$1.85	-$0.03	66% 23472-11826 (35298)
FO fooooolCTR<$100	Underavg 6¢	$0.58	$0.73	+$0.15	50% 11182-10999 (22181)
poshposhCTR<$100	Underavg 13¢	$2.08	$0.16	-$1.92	58% 10691-7671 (18362)
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100	Underavg 9.5¢	$2.28	$0.12	-$2.16	48% 8991-9637 (18628)

GoalLineGhostARB<$100

Over

Invested

$2,209.11

Value

$3.0K

PnL

+$816.3

Record

50%

25689-25525 (51214)

Both legs:

Under$739.2515.4¢+$1.3K

Over$1,469.8687.3¢-$510.29

RN1

Over

Invested

$2,133.22

Value

$3.0K

PnL

+$837.06

Record

54%

57187-49444 (106631)

Forecastication2

Over

Invested

$1,103.91

Value

$1.1K

PnL

-$5.93

Record

50%

7127-7172 (14299)

bernardi22

Over

Invested

$734.26

Value

$737.03

PnL

+$2.76

Record

56%

1300-1021 (2321)

SnakeBallCTR

Under

Invested

$247.88

Value

$696.05

PnL

+$448.17

Record

50%

33888-33462 (67350)

UpTheBluesCTR

Under

Invested

$1,008.97

Value

$69.72

PnL

-$939.25

Record

59%

46944-33223 (80167)

omnibus-076daaCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$60.8

Value

$63.2

PnL

+$2.4

Record

50%

19465-19831 (39296)

0x3bf57663998170f8Ca96c5E91fef4092A8aa2307-1780525562609<$100

Over

Invested

$41.62

Value

$43.37

PnL

+$1.75

Record

82%

2441-547 (2988)

pauleta23<$100

Over

Invested

$1.88

Value

$1.85

PnL

-$0.03

Record

66%

23472-11826 (35298)

fooooolCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$0.58

Value

$0.73

PnL

+$0.15

Record

50%

11182-10999 (22181)

poshposhCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$2.08

Value

$0.16

PnL

-$1.92

Record

58%

10691-7671 (18362)

topdogbigboiCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$2.28

Value

$0.12

PnL

-$2.16

Record

48%

8991-9637 (18628)

Research grade

NeutralOver at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Over

5 of 11 top traders (45%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.