Nets vs. Hawks

7 of 16 top Polymarket traders hold Hawks (44%) · Hawks at 72¢ · $8K held · ends Nov 8

Nets28¢Hawks72¢Ends Sun, Nov 8, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Hawks

Consensus Traders

Hawks 44%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$8.5K

Combined PnL

-$1.8

Smart Money Entry

71.9¢ → 71.5¢

-1% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

AvoidHawks at 72%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Hawks

7 of 16 top traders (44%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed9 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Nets28%

Hawks72%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Hawks7 traders

Total Value$5.1K

Total Shares7,248

Combined PnL+$42.55

Nets9 traders

Total Value$3.2K

Total Shares10,918

Combined PnL-$44.35

Hawks — 44%Nets — 56%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Mature

27h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

40% of non-arb traders are on Hawks. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleHawks 50% · 6

Aligned

sharpNets 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrNets 64% · 11

Diverging

Hand-pickedNets 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Nets 57% · 14

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
nigiri99	Hawksavg 72¢	$4.9K	$4.8K	+$34.11	46% 8770-10463 (19233)
HO HomeRunHazardCTR	Netsavg 28.6¢	$1.6K	$1.6K	-$3.69	54% 18479-15550 (34029)
VeryLucky888CTR	Netsavg 28.5¢	$855	$840	+$0	58% 47503-34297 (81800)
HI hi774cCTR	Netsavg 29¢	$365.27	$352.68	-$6.3	46% 5316-6151 (11467)
TA takeormakeCTR	Netsavg 31.4¢	$257.43	$229.6	-$27.83	52% 5109-4675 (9784)
38 38791873984189	Hawksavg 71¢	$195.17	$196.55	+$1.37	48% 62396-67251 (129647)
NM NM-PCTR	Netsavg 28¢	$139.99	$139.99	+$0	64% 10182-5720 (15902)
DA darkumbreon88<$100	Hawksavg 68¢	$86.2	$90	+$3.8	64% 2039-1134 (3173)
OD OddstormARB<$100	Netsavg 31.6¢	$70.38	$66.24	-$4.14	48% 7449-7982 (15431)
└ Nets leg	Netsavg 31.6¢	$51.53	$45.65	-$4.87
└ Hawks leg	Hawksavg 69.5¢	$20.16	$20.59	+$0.73
OM omnibus-076daaCTR<$100	Netsavg 34.1¢	$51.37	$48.76	-$2.61	50% 21550-21844 (43394)
PU purplegatto<$100	Hawksavg 70.7¢	$41.72	$41.93	+$0.21	49% 6379-6554 (12933)
GA GaditimaCTR<$100	Netsavg 35.1¢	$31.15	$27.73	-$3.42	47% 7500-8312 (15812)
rayvanmechelenCTR<$100	Netsavg 30¢	$10	$9.33	-$0.5	53% 2699-2381 (5080)
GH ghorrock<$100	Hawksavg 68.3¢	$26.93	$7.11	+$1.05	58% 21689-15792 (37481)
PA Pan9X<$100	Hawksavg 67.5¢	$37.79	$3.55	+$1.97	54% 10453-8773 (19226)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Netsavg 28¢	$2.8	$2.8	+$0	50% 26409-26025 (52434)
FL Flaznorp<$100	Hawksavg 70.1¢	$2.11	$2.14	+$0.03	51% 27227-25781 (53008)

nigiri99

Hawks

Invested

$4,875.43

Value

$4.8K

PnL

+$34.11

Record

46%

8770-10463 (19233)

HomeRunHazardCTR

Nets

Invested

$1,589.84

Value

$1.6K

PnL

-$3.69

Record

54%

18479-15550 (34029)

VeryLucky888CTR

Nets

Invested

$855

Value

$840

PnL

+$0

Record

58%

47503-34297 (81800)

hi774cCTR

Nets

Invested

$365.27

Value

$352.68

PnL

-$6.3

Record

46%

5316-6151 (11467)

takeormakeCTR

Nets

Invested

$257.43

Value

$229.6

PnL

-$27.83

Record

52%

5109-4675 (9784)

38791873984189

Hawks

Invested

$195.17

Value

$196.55

PnL

+$1.37

Record

48%

62396-67251 (129647)

NM-PCTR

Nets

Invested

$139.99

Value

$139.99

PnL

+$0

Record

64%

10182-5720 (15902)

darkumbreon88<$100

Hawks

Invested

$86.2

Value

$90

PnL

+$3.8

Record

64%

2039-1134 (3173)

OddstormARB<$100

Nets

Invested

$70.38

Value

$66.24

PnL

-$4.14

Record

48%

7449-7982 (15431)

Both legs:

Nets$51.5331.6¢-$4.87

Hawks$20.1669.5¢+$0.73

omnibus-076daaCTR<$100

Nets

Invested

$51.37

Value

$48.76

PnL

-$2.61

Record

50%

21550-21844 (43394)

purplegatto<$100

Hawks

Invested

$41.72

Value

$41.93

PnL

+$0.21

Record

49%

6379-6554 (12933)

GaditimaCTR<$100

Nets

Invested

$31.15

Value

$27.73

PnL

-$3.42

Record

47%

7500-8312 (15812)

rayvanmechelenCTR<$100

Nets

Invested

$10

Value

$9.33

PnL

-$0.5

Record

53%

2699-2381 (5080)

ghorrock<$100

Hawks

Invested

$26.93

Value

$7.11

PnL

+$1.05

Record

58%

21689-15792 (37481)

Pan9X<$100

Hawks

Invested

$37.79

Value

$3.55

PnL

+$1.97

Record

54%

10453-8773 (19226)

sentrioCTR<$100

Nets

Invested

$2.8

Value

$2.8

PnL

+$0

Record

50%

26409-26025 (52434)

Flaznorp<$100

Hawks

Invested

$2.11

Value

$2.14

PnL

+$0.03

Record

51%

27227-25781 (53008)

Research grade

AvoidHawks at 72%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Hawks

7 of 16 top traders (44%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed9 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Mature

27h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

40% of non-arb traders are on Hawks. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleHawks 50% · 6

Aligned

sharpNets 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrNets 64% · 11

Diverging

Hand-pickedNets 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Nets 57% · 14

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Hawks wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance73.5%

71.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$36.06

Max Loss

-$100.00

136.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.