Spread: Celtics (-7.5)

8 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold Celtics (62%) · Celtics at 86¢ · $89K held · ended Nov 11

Celtics86¢76ers14¢Ended Wed, Nov 11, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Celtics

Consensus Traders

Celtics 62%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$88.8K

Combined PnL

$6.6K

Smart Money Entry

49.3¢ → 86¢

+75% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

AvoidCeltics at 86%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Celtics

8 of 13 top traders (62%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Celtics86%

76ers14%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

76ers5 traders

Total Value$43.2K

Total Shares74,532

Combined PnL+$4.4K

Celtics8 traders

Total Value$45.0K

Total Shares84,459

Combined PnL+$2.2K

76ers — 38%Celtics — 62%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 97%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

64% of non-arb traders are on Celtics. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 97% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on 76ers) and the top 1000 (11 on Celtics) disagree here.

whaleCeltics 100% · 1

Aligned

sniperCeltics 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrCeltics 78% · 9

Aligned

Hand-picked76ers 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Celtics 64% · 11

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR	76ersavg 48.5¢	$35.1K	$40.4K	+$5.3K	54% 1660-1438 (3098)
GO googleplay	Celticsavg 51.5¢	$35.4K	$33.0K	$-2.4K	49% 59-61 (120)
FL Flaznorp	Celticsavg 32.6¢	$4.4K	$8.0K	+$4.0K	50% 1558-1564 (3122)
0X 0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375	Celticsavg 49.2¢	$2.2K	$2.4K	+$150.63	54% 217-188 (405)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR	76ersavg 53.8¢	$1.7K	$2.1K	+$381.92	56% 502-393 (895)
TA takeormakeARB<$100	Celticsavg 65.7¢	$749.93	$616.85	-$133.09	59% 3119-2207 (5326)
└ Celtics leg	Celticsavg 65.7¢	$431.19	$446.29	+$15.09
└ 76ers leg	76ersavg 59.8¢	$318.74	$170.56	-$148.18
MA MadridTime	Celticsavg 45.9¢	$318.93	$597.81	+$278.88	29% 307-748 (1055)
LI LightParadox	Celticsavg 47.9¢	$321.1	$576.39	+$255.29	28% 298-765 (1063)
0X 0xd4aa6f8e91cfea29b66a48ebff52814CTR	76ersavg 48¢	$1.9K	$547.26	$-1.3K	48% 183-198 (381)
BI biying88888	Celticsavg 47¢	$375.53	$271.66	-$103.87	27% 63-170 (233)
RN1CTR	76ersavg 49¢	$119.07	$160.38	+$41.31	58% 3828-2805 (6633)
LI Limousin	Celticsavg 46¢	$66.74	$124.77	+$58.03	29% 313-784 (1097)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	76ersavg 50¢	$54.14	$71.41	+$17.26	35% 266-489 (755)
VE Venusian<$100	Celticsavg 35.1¢	$23.19	$14.19	-$9	28% 304-772 (1076)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR

76ers

Invested

$35,103.91

Value

$40.4K

PnL

+$5.3K

Record

54%

1660-1438 (3098)

googleplay

Celtics

Invested

$35,387.85

Value

$33.0K

PnL

$-2.4K

Record

49%

59-61 (120)

Flaznorp

Celtics

Invested

$4,381.17

Value

$8.0K

PnL

+$4.0K

Record

50%

1558-1564 (3122)

0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375

Celtics

Invested

$2,224.88

Value

$2.4K

PnL

+$150.63

Record

54%

217-188 (405)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR

76ers

Invested

$1,694.67

Value

$2.1K

PnL

+$381.92

Record

56%

502-393 (895)

takeormakeARB<$100

Celtics

Invested

$749.93

Value

$616.85

PnL

-$133.09

Record

59%

3119-2207 (5326)

Both legs:

Celtics$431.1965.7¢+$15.09

76ers$318.7459.8¢-$148.18

MadridTime

Celtics

Invested

$318.93

Value

$597.81

PnL

+$278.88

Record

29%

307-748 (1055)

LightParadox

Celtics

Invested

$321.1

Value

$576.39

PnL

+$255.29

Record

28%

298-765 (1063)

0xd4aa6f8e91cfea29b66a48ebff52814CTR

76ers

Invested

$1,876.32

Value

$547.26

PnL

$-1.3K

Record

48%

183-198 (381)

biying88888

Celtics

Invested

$375.53

Value

$271.66

PnL

-$103.87

Record

27%

63-170 (233)

RN1CTR

76ers

Invested

$119.07

Value

$160.38

PnL

+$41.31

Record

58%

3828-2805 (6633)

Limousin

Celtics

Invested

$66.74

Value

$124.77

PnL

+$58.03

Record

29%

313-784 (1097)

sentrioCTR<$100

76ers

Invested

$54.14

Value

$71.41

PnL

+$17.26

Record

35%

266-489 (755)

Venusian<$100

Celtics

Invested

$23.19

Value

$14.19

PnL

-$9

Record

28%

304-772 (1076)

Research grade

AvoidCeltics at 86%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Celtics

8 of 13 top traders (62%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 97%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

64% of non-arb traders are on Celtics. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 97% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on 76ers) and the top 1000 (11 on Celtics) disagree here.

whaleCeltics 100% · 1

Aligned

sniperCeltics 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrCeltics 78% · 9

Aligned

Hand-picked76ers 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Celtics 64% · 11

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Celtics wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance87.6%

86.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.6¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$14.20

Max Loss

-$100.00

114.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.