Spread: Celtics (-6.5)

4 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Raptors (44%) · Raptors at 53¢ · $73K held · ends Nov 12

Celtics48¢Raptors52¢Ends Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Raptors

Consensus Traders

Raptors 44%

8 arb excluded

Total Value

$73.2K

Combined PnL

-$666.86

Smart Money Entry

52.7¢ → 52.5¢

+0% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

AvoidRaptors at 53%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Raptors

4 of 9 top traders (44%)8 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Celtics48%

Raptors53%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Raptors4 traders

Total Value$26.9K

Total Shares52,962

Combined PnL$-1.2K

Celtics5 traders

Total Value$11.5K

Total Shares23,278

Combined PnL+$507.4

Raptors — 44%Celtics — 56%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+60 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 79%

Freshness

Fresh

3h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

82% of non-arb traders are on Raptors. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 79% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrRaptors 83% · 6

Aligned

Hand-pickedRaptors 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Raptors 80% · 10

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
RO ropetard	Raptorsavg 52.9¢	$25.8K	$24.7K	$-1.2K	73% 147-55 (202)
HO HomeRunHazardARB<$100	Raptorsavg 50.1¢	$14.1K	$14.5K	+$332.08	57% 3221-2431 (5652)
└ Raptors leg	Raptorsavg 50.1¢	$8.1K	$8.2K	+$63.85
└ Celtics leg	Celticsavg 47.4¢	$6.0K	$6.3K	+$268.23
MU Multicoloured-SerfARB<$100	Celticsavg 47¢	$13.2K	$13.8K	+$553.1	48% 536-588 (1124)
└ Celtics leg	Celticsavg 47¢	$6.6K	$7.0K	+$351.06
└ Raptors leg	Raptorsavg 49¢	$6.6K	$6.8K	+$202.04
nehcnehcCTR	Celticsavg 48¢	$4.7K	$4.9K	+$147.72	25% 21-63 (84)
FO forecastication4CTR	Celticsavg 46¢	$4.5K	$4.8K	+$342.26	18% 48-217 (265)
HI hi774cARB<$100	Celticsavg 48¢	$2.7K	$2.8K	+$83.68	14% 76-471 (547)
└ Celtics leg	Celticsavg 48¢	$1.8K	$1.9K	+$56.37
└ Raptors leg	Raptorsavg 49¢	$892	$919.3	+$27.31
GC GC-PARB<$100	Celticsavg 48.2¢	$1.3K	$1.3K	+$25.37	20% 98-381 (479)
└ Celtics leg	Celticsavg 48.2¢	$927.49	$952.86	+$25.37
└ Raptors leg	Raptorsavg 50.5¢	$353.5	$353.5	+$0
NM NM-PARB<$100	Celticsavg 48.1¢	$1.2K	$1.2K	+$27.68	59% 3477-2367 (5844)
└ Celtics leg	Celticsavg 48.1¢	$810.07	$834.25	+$24.18
└ Raptors leg	Raptorsavg 50¢	$350	$353.5	+$3.5
73 739633786CTR	Celticsavg 51¢	$1.2K	$1.2K	-$48.4	6% 11-189 (200)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh	Raptorsavg 51¢	$1.1K	$1.1K	-$22.15	53% 1811-1621 (3432)
SE sentrio	Raptorsavg 50.4¢	$1.1K	$1.1K	+$10.79	37% 346-578 (924)
FL FlaznorpARB<$100	Raptorsavg 50¢	$565.81	$579.04	+$13.23	51% 1843-1797 (3640)
└ Raptors leg	Raptorsavg 50¢	$390.5	$394.41	+$3.91
└ Celtics leg	Celticsavg 47¢	$175.31	$184.64	+$9.32
VeryLucky888CTR	Celticsavg 47.7¢	$1.7K	$495	+$57.73	51% 455-429 (884)
38 38791873984189ARB<$100	Celticsavg 47.8¢	$721.89	$470.86	+$15.36	48% 1363-1480 (2843)
└ Celtics leg	Celticsavg 47.8¢	$280.18	$290.06	+$11.51
└ Raptors leg	Raptorsavg 50.5¢	$180.78	$180.79	+$3.85
SN SnakeBallARB<$100	Raptorsavg 50.5¢	$199.86	$201.12	+$1.27	45% 263-319 (582)
└ Raptors leg	Raptorsavg 50.5¢	$159.86	$159.88	+$0.02
└ Celtics leg	Celticsavg 48¢	$39.99	$41.24	+$1.25
SU SunlineTickerCTR	Celticsavg 46¢	$106.26	$114.35	+$8.08	70% 1671-717 (2388)
PA Pan9X<$100	Raptorsavg 50¢	$76.56	$41.15	+$1.72	48% 668-712 (1380)

ropetard

Raptors

Invested

$25,839.99

Value

$24.7K

PnL

$-1.2K

Record

73%

147-55 (202)

HomeRunHazardARB<$100

Raptors

Invested

$14,137.71

Value

$14.5K

PnL

+$332.08

Record

57%

3221-2431 (5652)

Both legs:

Raptors$8,138.8550.1¢+$63.85

Celtics$5,998.8647.4¢+$268.23

Multicoloured-SerfARB<$100

Celtics

Invested

$13,199.99

Value

$13.8K

PnL

+$553.1

Record

48%

536-588 (1124)

Both legs:

Celtics$6,60047¢+$351.06

Raptors$6,60049¢+$202.04

nehcnehcCTR

Celtics

Invested

$4,727.02

Value

$4.9K

PnL

+$147.72

Record

25%

21-63 (84)

forecastication4CTR

Celtics

Invested

$4,498.34

Value

$4.8K

PnL

+$342.26

Record

18%

48-217 (265)

hi774cARB<$100

Celtics

Invested

$2,695.99

Value

$2.8K

PnL

+$83.68

Record

14%

76-471 (547)

Both legs:

Celtics$1,80448¢+$56.37

Raptors$89249¢+$27.31

GC-PARB<$100

Celtics

Invested

$1,280.99

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$25.37

Record

20%

98-381 (479)

Both legs:

Celtics$927.4948.2¢+$25.37

Raptors$353.550.5¢+$0

NM-PARB<$100

Celtics

Invested

$1,160.07

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$27.68

Record

59%

3477-2367 (5844)

Both legs:

Celtics$810.0748.1¢+$24.18

Raptors$35050¢+$3.5

739633786CTR

Celtics

Invested

$1,234.2

Value

$1.2K

PnL

-$48.4

Record

11-189 (200)

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh

Raptors

Invested

$1,129.82

Value

$1.1K

PnL

-$22.15

Record

53%

1811-1621 (3432)

sentrio

Raptors

Invested

$1,096.3

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$10.79

Record

37%

346-578 (924)

FlaznorpARB<$100

Raptors

Invested

$565.81

Value

$579.04

PnL

+$13.23

Record

51%

1843-1797 (3640)

Both legs:

Raptors$390.550¢+$3.91

Celtics$175.3147¢+$9.32

VeryLucky888CTR

Celtics

Invested

$1,720

Value

$495

PnL

+$57.73

Record

51%

455-429 (884)

38791873984189ARB<$100

Celtics

Invested

$721.89

Value

$470.86

PnL

+$15.36

Record

48%

1363-1480 (2843)

Both legs:

Celtics$280.1847.8¢+$11.51

Raptors$180.7850.5¢+$3.85

SnakeBallARB<$100

Raptors

Invested

$199.86

Value

$201.12

PnL

+$1.27

Record

45%

263-319 (582)

Both legs:

Raptors$159.8650.5¢+$0.02

Celtics$39.9948¢+$1.25

SunlineTickerCTR

Celtics

Invested

$106.26

Value

$114.35

PnL

+$8.08

Record

70%

1671-717 (2388)

Pan9X<$100

Raptors

Invested

$76.56

Value

$41.15

PnL

+$1.72

Record

48%

668-712 (1380)

Research grade

AvoidRaptors at 53%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Raptors

4 of 9 top traders (44%)8 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+60 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 79%

Freshness

Fresh

3h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

82% of non-arb traders are on Raptors. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 79% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrRaptors 83% · 6

Aligned

Hand-pickedRaptors 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Raptors 80% · 10

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Raptors wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance54.7%

52.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$82.67

Max Loss

-$100.00

182.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.