Cavaliers vs. Thunder

5 of 14 top Polymarket traders hold Thunder (36%) · Thunder at 56¢ · $11K held · ends Nov 5

Cavaliers44¢Thunder56¢Ends Thu, Nov 5, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Thunder

Consensus Traders

Thunder 36%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$11.0K

Combined PnL

-$41.23

Smart Money Entry

56¢ → 56.5¢

+1% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

AvoidThunder at 56%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Thunder

5 of 14 top traders (36%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed9 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Cavaliers44%

Thunder56%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Thunder5 traders

Total Value$6.4K

Total Shares11,365

Combined PnL+$68.57

Cavaliers9 traders

Total Value$3.4K

Total Shares7,725

Combined PnL-$109.8

Thunder — 36%Cavaliers — 64%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

-20 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 86%

Freshness

Mature

22h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

4 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

38% of non-arb traders are on Thunder. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 86% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleCavaliers 67% · 6

Diverging

sharpCavaliers 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrThunder 50% · 10

Aligned

Hand-pickedCavaliers 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Cavaliers 58% · 12

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
MO monkeymashingkeyboard	Thunderavg 56¢	$5.4K	$5.5K	+$49.27	53% 642-564 (1206)
JA JAMJAMJAM4CTR	Cavaliersavg 45.2¢	$1.5K	$1.4K	-$57.16	67% 3651-1816 (5467)
65 6512395314597884ARB<$100	Thunderavg 56¢	$1.3K	$1.3K	+$6.92	51% 4564-4425 (8989)
└ Thunder leg	Thunderavg 56¢	$954.95	$955.46	+$0.51
└ Cavaliers leg	Cavaliersavg 42.1¢	$301.25	$307.66	+$6.41
nigiri99CTR	Cavaliersavg 45.2¢	$736.83	$700.47	-$36.36	46% 8349-9745 (18094)
VeryLucky888CTR	Cavaliersavg 43¢	$639.82	$647.26	+$7.44	58% 45382-32888 (78270)
PU purplegatto	Thunderavg 55.8¢	$452.31	$452.75	+$13.25	50% 6159-6274 (12433)
HO HomeRunHazardCTR	Cavaliersavg 45.2¢	$411.61	$391.43	-$20.19	54% 18035-15164 (33199)
OM omnibus-076daa	Thunderavg 55.1¢	$247.04	$251.05	+$4.01	50% 20647-20936 (41583)
38 38791873984189	Thunderavg 56¢	$229.03	$231.07	+$2.04	48% 58721-62631 (121352)
BO BoomLaLaCTR	Cavaliersavg 44¢	$139.41	$136.43	-$2.98	54% 11946-10370 (22316)
RollAwayTheDewCTR<$100	Cavaliersavg 46¢	$14.54	$13.59	-$0.16	54% 510-438 (948)
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100	Cavaliersavg 44.2¢	$12.18	$11.84	-$0.34	51% 24004-22756 (46760)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Cavaliersavg 44.4¢	$13.59	$7.44	-$0.06	58% 19232-14159 (33391)
HE HerdoniaCTR<$100	Cavaliersavg 43¢	$7.05	$7.05	+$0	50% 3581-3512 (7093)
AM ameisgoat11<$100	Thunderavg 56¢	$2.8	$2.8	+$0	52% 8553-7794 (16347)

monkeymashingkeyboard

Thunder

Invested

$5,438.62

Value

$5.5K

PnL

+$49.27

Record

53%

642-564 (1206)

JAMJAMJAM4CTR

Cavaliers

Invested

$1,492.66

Value

$1.4K

PnL

-$57.16

Record

67%

3651-1816 (5467)

6512395314597884ARB<$100

Thunder

Invested

$1,256.2

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$6.92

Record

51%

4564-4425 (8989)

Both legs:

Thunder$954.9556¢+$0.51

Cavaliers$301.2542.1¢+$6.41

nigiri99CTR

Cavaliers

Invested

$736.83

Value

$700.47

PnL

-$36.36

Record

46%

8349-9745 (18094)

VeryLucky888CTR

Cavaliers

Invested

$639.82

Value

$647.26

PnL

+$7.44

Record

58%

45382-32888 (78270)

purplegatto

Thunder

Invested

$452.31

Value

$452.75

PnL

+$13.25

Record

50%

6159-6274 (12433)

HomeRunHazardCTR

Cavaliers

Invested

$411.61

Value

$391.43

PnL

-$20.19

Record

54%

18035-15164 (33199)

omnibus-076daa

Thunder

Invested

$247.04

Value

$251.05

PnL

+$4.01

Record

50%

20647-20936 (41583)

38791873984189

Thunder

Invested

$229.03

Value

$231.07

PnL

+$2.04

Record

48%

58721-62631 (121352)

BoomLaLaCTR

Cavaliers

Invested

$139.41

Value

$136.43

PnL

-$2.98

Record

54%

11946-10370 (22316)

RollAwayTheDewCTR<$100

Cavaliers

Invested

$14.54

Value

$13.59

PnL

-$0.16

Record

54%

510-438 (948)

FlaznorpCTR<$100

Cavaliers

Invested

$12.18

Value

$11.84

PnL

-$0.34

Record

51%

24004-22756 (46760)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Cavaliers

Invested

$13.59

Value

$7.44

PnL

-$0.06

Record

58%

19232-14159 (33391)

HerdoniaCTR<$100

Cavaliers

Invested

$7.05

Value

$7.05

PnL

+$0

Record

50%

3581-3512 (7093)

ameisgoat11<$100

Thunder

Invested

$2.8

Value

$2.8

PnL

+$0

Record

52%

8553-7794 (16347)

Research grade

AvoidThunder at 56%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Thunder

5 of 14 top traders (36%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed9 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

-20 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 86%

Freshness

Mature

22h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

4 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

38% of non-arb traders are on Thunder. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 86% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleCavaliers 67% · 6

Diverging

sharpCavaliers 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrThunder 50% · 10

Aligned

Hand-pickedCavaliers 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Cavaliers 58% · 12

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Thunder wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance58.7%

56.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$70.29

Max Loss

-$100.00

170.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.