Spread: Suns (-14.5)

10 of 17 top Polymarket traders hold Suns (59%) · Suns at 89¢ · $10K held · ended Nov 11

Suns89¢Clippers11¢Ended Wed, Nov 11, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Suns

Consensus Traders

Suns 59%

Total Value

$9.8K

Combined PnL

-$9.92

Smart Money Entry

56.4¢ → 88.5¢

+57% since entry · 10 traders

Research grade

AvoidSuns at 89%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Suns

10 of 17 top traders (59%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Suns89%

Clippers11%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Suns10 traders

Total Value$9.1K

Total Shares10,450

Combined PnL+$2.6K

Clippers7 traders

Total Value$625.29

Total Shares6,482

Combined PnL$-2.6K

Suns — 59%Clippers — 41%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 73%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

56% of non-arb traders are on Suns. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 73% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrClippers 60% · 10

Diverging

Hand-pickedSuns 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Suns 56% · 16

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872	Sunsavg 66¢	$2.5K	$3.1K	+$630.3	56% 504-395 (899)
0X 0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375	Sunsavg 49¢	$1.7K	$2.8K	+$1.2K	54% 217-188 (405)
65 6512395314597884	Sunsavg 49.9¢	$1.2K	$1.7K	+$537.69	51% 3173-3073 (6246)
FL Flaznorp	Sunsavg 60.7¢	$866.96	$938.43	+$95.77	50% 1562-1566 (3128)
MU Multicoloured-SerfCTR	Clippersavg 51¢	$1.8K	$296.56	$-1.5K	47% 500-559 (1059)
RN1	Sunsavg 52.6¢	$235.32	$238.18	+$2.86	58% 3830-2807 (6637)
MA MadridTimeCTR	Clippersavg 47.7¢	$462.2	$105.55	-$356.64	29% 307-750 (1057)
TA takeormake	Sunsavg 75.5¢	$86.71	$102.37	+$15.66	59% 3119-2207 (5326)
38 38791873984189	Sunsavg 27.4¢	$33.07	$100.24	+$67.16	48% 969-1052 (2021)
LI LimousinCTR	Clippersavg 48.1¢	$303.33	$68.68	-$234.65	29% 314-785 (1099)
VE VenusianCTR	Clippersavg 48¢	$295.21	$67.04	-$228.17	28% 305-773 (1078)
PA Pan9X<$100	Sunsavg 60.8¢	$69.74	$63	+$35.08	49% 450-474 (924)
SE sentrio<$100	Sunsavg 52¢	$37.65	$60.09	+$22.44	35% 266-490 (756)
LI LightParadoxCTR	Clippersavg 47.3¢	$236.94	$54.55	-$182.39	28% 299-766 (1065)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh<$100	Sunsavg 51¢	$28.42	$46.26	+$17.83	54% 1662-1438 (3100)
JU justaluckydudeCTR	Clippersavg 65¢	$136.5	$23.1	-$113.4	30% 134-317 (451)
0X 0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6eCTR<$100	Clippersavg 24¢	$21.6	$9.81	-$11.79	62% 2365-1458 (3823)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872

Suns

Invested

$2,453.19

Value

$3.1K

PnL

+$630.3

Record

56%

504-395 (899)

0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375

Suns

Invested

$1,699.61

Value

$2.8K

PnL

+$1.2K

Record

54%

217-188 (405)

6512395314597884

Suns

Invested

$1,186.66

Value

$1.7K

PnL

+$537.69

Record

51%

3173-3073 (6246)

Flaznorp

Suns

Invested

$866.96

Value

$938.43

PnL

+$95.77

Record

50%

1562-1566 (3128)

Multicoloured-SerfCTR

Clippers

Invested

$1,768.98

Value

$296.56

PnL

$-1.5K

Record

47%

500-559 (1059)

RN1

Suns

Invested

$235.32

Value

$238.18

PnL

+$2.86

Record

58%

3830-2807 (6637)

MadridTimeCTR

Clippers

Invested

$462.2

Value

$105.55

PnL

-$356.64

Record

29%

307-750 (1057)

takeormake

Suns

Invested

$86.71

Value

$102.37

PnL

+$15.66

Record

59%

3119-2207 (5326)

38791873984189

Suns

Invested

$33.07

Value

$100.24

PnL

+$67.16

Record

48%

969-1052 (2021)

LimousinCTR

Clippers

Invested

$303.33

Value

$68.68

PnL

-$234.65

Record

29%

314-785 (1099)

VenusianCTR

Clippers

Invested

$295.21

Value

$67.04

PnL

-$228.17

Record

28%

305-773 (1078)

Pan9X<$100

Suns

Invested

$69.74

Value

$63

PnL

+$35.08

Record

49%

450-474 (924)

sentrio<$100

Suns

Invested

$37.65

Value

$60.09

PnL

+$22.44

Record

35%

266-490 (756)

LightParadoxCTR

Clippers

Invested

$236.94

Value

$54.55

PnL

-$182.39

Record

28%

299-766 (1065)

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh<$100

Suns

Invested

$28.42

Value

$46.26

PnL

+$17.83

Record

54%

1662-1438 (3100)

justaluckydudeCTR

Clippers

Invested

$136.5

Value

$23.1

PnL

-$113.4

Record

30%

134-317 (451)

0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6eCTR<$100

Clippers

Invested

$21.6

Value

$9.81

PnL

-$11.79

Record

62%

2365-1458 (3823)

Research grade

AvoidSuns at 89%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Suns

10 of 17 top traders (59%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 73%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

56% of non-arb traders are on Suns. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 73% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrClippers 60% · 10

Diverging

Hand-pickedSuns 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Suns 56% · 16

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Suns wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance90.0%

88.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$11.09

Max Loss

-$100.00

111.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.