Spread: Suns (-2.5)

10 of 17 top Polymarket traders hold Suns (59%) · Suns at 99¢ · $52K held · ended Nov 11

Suns>99¢Clippers<1¢Ended Wed, Nov 11, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Suns

Consensus Traders

Suns 59%

Total Value

$51.8K

Combined PnL

$-3.6K

Smart Money Entry

53.8¢ → 99.5¢

+85% since entry · 10 traders

Research grade

AvoidSuns at 99%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Suns

10 of 17 top traders (59%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Suns99%

Clippers1%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Suns10 traders

Total Value$51.2K

Total Shares51,974

Combined PnL+$23.0K

Clippers7 traders

Total Value$598.37

Total Shares58,512

Combined PnL$-26.6K

Suns — 59%Clippers — 41%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+5 pts consensus

Breadth

10 traders

Top 2 hold 88%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

59% of non-arb traders are on Suns. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 88% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleClippers 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrSuns 56% · 9

Aligned

Hand-pickedSuns 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Suns 56% · 16

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO HomeRunHazard	Sunsavg 53.5¢	$13.7K	$25.2K	+$11.5K	57% 3075-2312 (5387)
TM TMingchan	Sunsavg 54¢	$10.8K	$19.7K	+$8.9K	15% 6-35 (41)
VeryLucky888	Sunsavg 53.9¢	$2.4K	$4.3K	+$2.0K	51% 330-319 (649)
38 38791873984189	Sunsavg 53.2¢	$482.52	$586.54	+$178.94	48% 969-1052 (2021)
RN1	Sunsavg 57.6¢	$278.78	$476.29	+$197.51	58% 3830-2807 (6637)
FL Flaznorp	Sunsavg 53.5¢	$185.52	$345.07	+$159.55	50% 1562-1566 (3128)
BR BreakTheBankCTR	Clippersavg 46.3¢	$26.1K	$310.62	$-25.8K	42% 574-809 (1383)
GC GC-P	Sunsavg 54¢	$247.49	$249.99	+$2.5	16% 68-351 (419)
65 6512395314597884CTR	Clippersavg 45¢	$387.38	$218.39	-$169	51% 3173-3073 (6246)
NM NM-P	Sunsavg 54¢	$158.14	$159.73	+$1.59	60% 3445-2339 (5784)
PA Pan9X	Sunsavg 55.6¢	$84.52	$103.51	+$36.49	49% 450-474 (924)
SN SnakeBall<$100	Sunsavg 54¢	$40.19	$73.34	+$33.15	49% 220-229 (449)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR	Clippersavg 42.9¢	$199.49	$62.4	-$137.09	54% 1662-1438 (3100)
UB ubetteruuuuCTR	Clippersavg 47¢	$423	$4.95	-$418.05	11% 13-104 (117)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR<$100	Clippersavg 49.1¢	$50.25	$1.48	-$48.76	56% 504-395 (899)
RL RLWGCTR<$100	Clippersavg 47¢	$9.4	$0.29	-$9.11	68% 1604-751 (2355)
LI LimousinCTR<$100	Clippersavg 45¢	$2.25	$0.25	-$2	29% 314-785 (1099)

HomeRunHazard

Suns

Invested

$13,685.15

Value

$25.2K

PnL

+$11.5K

Record

57%

3075-2312 (5387)

TMingchan

Suns

Invested

$10,800

Value

$19.7K

PnL

+$8.9K

Record

15%

6-35 (41)

VeryLucky888

Suns

Invested

$2,373.03

Value

$4.3K

PnL

+$2.0K

Record

51%

330-319 (649)

38791873984189

Suns

Invested

$482.52

Value

$586.54

PnL

+$178.94

Record

48%

969-1052 (2021)

RN1

Suns

Invested

$278.78

Value

$476.29

PnL

+$197.51

Record

58%

3830-2807 (6637)

Flaznorp

Suns

Invested

$185.52

Value

$345.07

PnL

+$159.55

Record

50%

1562-1566 (3128)

BreakTheBankCTR

Clippers

Invested

$26,140.86

Value

$310.62

PnL

$-25.8K

Record

42%

574-809 (1383)

GC-P

Suns

Invested

$247.49

Value

$249.99

PnL

+$2.5

Record

16%

68-351 (419)

6512395314597884CTR

Clippers

Invested

$387.38

Value

$218.39

PnL

-$169

Record

51%

3173-3073 (6246)

NM-P

Suns

Invested

$158.14

Value

$159.73

PnL

+$1.59

Record

60%

3445-2339 (5784)

Pan9X

Suns

Invested

$84.52

Value

$103.51

PnL

+$36.49

Record

49%

450-474 (924)

SnakeBall<$100

Suns

Invested

$40.19

Value

$73.34

PnL

+$33.15

Record

49%

220-229 (449)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR

Clippers

Invested

$199.49

Value

$62.4

PnL

-$137.09

Record

54%

1662-1438 (3100)

ubetteruuuuCTR

Clippers

Invested

$423

Value

$4.95

PnL

-$418.05

Record

11%

13-104 (117)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR<$100

Clippers

Invested

$50.25

Value

$1.48

PnL

-$48.76

Record

56%

504-395 (899)

RLWGCTR<$100

Clippers

Invested

$9.4

Value

$0.29

PnL

-$9.11

Record

68%

1604-751 (2355)

LimousinCTR<$100

Clippers

Invested

$2.25

Value

$0.25

PnL

-$2

Record

29%

314-785 (1099)

Research grade

AvoidSuns at 99%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Suns

10 of 17 top traders (59%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+5 pts consensus

Breadth

10 traders

Top 2 hold 88%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

59% of non-arb traders are on Suns. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 88% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleClippers 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrSuns 56% · 9

Aligned

Hand-pickedSuns 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Suns 56% · 16

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Suns wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.