Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Suns, while the market favors Clippers (51%). 6 of 13 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Spread: Suns (-3.5)

6 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold Suns (46%) · Suns at 50¢ · $67K held · ends Nov 11

Suns50¢Clippers50¢Ends Wed, Nov 11, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Suns

Consensus Traders

Suns 46%

3 arb excluded

Total Value

$67.2K

Combined PnL

-$333.08

Smart Money Entry

50¢ → 49.5¢

-1% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

AvoidSuns at 50%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Suns

6 of 13 top traders (46%)Underdog side (market favors Clippers 51%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Suns50%

Clippers51%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Suns6 traders

Total Value$37.6K

Total Shares75,862

Combined PnL-$380.13

Clippers7 traders

Total Value$27.3K

Total Shares54,296

Combined PnL+$47.04

Suns — 46%Clippers — 54%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

-3 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Fresh

11h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

42% of non-arb traders are on Suns. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Suns) and the top 1000 (12 on Clippers) disagree here.

whaleClippers 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrClippers 71% · 7

Diverging

Hand-pickedSuns 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Clippers 58% · 12

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
MO monkeymashingkeyboardCTR	Sunsavg 50¢	$30.0K	$29.7K	-$300	54% 514-436 (950)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh	Clippersavg 50¢	$12.2K	$12.2K	+$4.04	54% 1657-1434 (3091)
HO HomeRunHazard	Clippersavg 49.8¢	$7.1K	$7.1K	+$19.76	57% 3074-2312 (5386)
RO robloxgamblemaster-2008-10-18CTR	Sunsavg 50¢	$6.9K	$6.8K	-$67.61	51% 710-691 (1401)
nehcnehc	Clippersavg 50¢	$4.7K	$4.7K	+$0	19% 13-57 (70)
BR BreakTheBank	Clippersavg 50¢	$1.6K	$1.6K	+$15.75	42% 574-809 (1383)
0X 0x1B8FfDb4FF99B4622F099465C486E4F75751cca7-1779298477893	Clippersavg 50¢	$1.3K	$1.3K	+$0	2% 6-257 (263)
GC GC-PARB<$100	Sunsavg 50.6¢	$1.1K	$1.1K	+$2	16% 67-351 (418)
└ Suns leg	Sunsavg 50.6¢	$573.06	$561.05	-$12
└ Clippers leg	Clippersavg 49.2¢	$541.5	$555.5	+$14
NM NM-PARB<$100	Sunsavg 50.5¢	$976.99	$978.76	+$1.77	60% 3444-2339 (5783)
└ Suns leg	Sunsavg 50.5¢	$507.52	$497.49	-$10.03
└ Clippers leg	Clippersavg 49.3¢	$469.47	$481.27	+$11.79
73 739633786CTR	Sunsavg 50¢	$618.5	$612.31	-$6.19	3% 5-185 (190)
VeryLucky888ARB<$100	Sunsavg 50¢	$905.22	$340.46	+$19.66	51% 300-292 (592)
└ Clippers leg	Clippersavg 48.5¢	$165.13	$171.94	+$16.36
└ Suns leg	Sunsavg 50¢	$170.23	$168.53	+$3.3
drainedandpoor	Clippersavg 49¢	$331.51	$338.28	+$6.77	47% 409-455 (864)
MU Multicoloured-SerfCTR	Sunsavg 49¢	$216.8	$219.01	+$2.21	47% 500-558 (1058)
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR	Sunsavg 51¢	$204	$196	-$8	10% 88-785 (873)
SE sentrio<$100	Clippersavg 49¢	$35.52	$36.25	+$0.72	34% 233-457 (690)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Sunsavg 50.3¢	$37.6	$24.81	-$0.54	49% 444-470 (914)

monkeymashingkeyboardCTR

Suns

Invested

$30,000

Value

$29.7K

PnL

-$300

Record

54%

514-436 (950)

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh

Clippers

Invested

$12,203.53

Value

$12.2K

PnL

+$4.04

Record

54%

1657-1434 (3091)

HomeRunHazard

Clippers

Invested

$7,051

Value

$7.1K

PnL

+$19.76

Record

57%

3074-2312 (5386)

robloxgamblemaster-2008-10-18CTR

Suns

Invested

$6,867.86

Value

$6.8K

PnL

-$67.61

Record

51%

710-691 (1401)

nehcnehc

Clippers

Invested

$4,727

Value

$4.7K

PnL

+$0

Record

19%

13-57 (70)

BreakTheBank

Clippers

Invested

$1,575.32

Value

$1.6K

PnL

+$15.75

Record

42%

574-809 (1383)

0x1B8FfDb4FF99B4622F099465C486E4F75751cca7-1779298477893

Clippers

Invested

$1,282.5

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$0

Record

6-257 (263)

GC-PARB<$100

Suns

Invested

$1,114.56

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$2

Record

16%

67-351 (418)

Both legs:

Suns$573.0650.6¢-$12

Clippers$541.549.2¢+$14

NM-PARB<$100

Suns

Invested

$976.99

Value

$978.76

PnL

+$1.77

Record

60%

3444-2339 (5783)

Both legs:

Suns$507.5250.5¢-$10.03

Clippers$469.4749.3¢+$11.79

739633786CTR

Suns

Invested

$618.5

Value

$612.31

PnL

-$6.19

Record

5-185 (190)

VeryLucky888ARB<$100

Suns

Invested

$905.22

Value

$340.46

PnL

+$19.66

Record

51%

300-292 (592)

Both legs:

Clippers$165.1348.5¢+$16.36

Suns$170.2350¢+$3.3

drainedandpoor

Clippers

Invested

$331.51

Value

$338.28

PnL

+$6.77

Record

47%

409-455 (864)

Multicoloured-SerfCTR

Suns

Invested

$216.8

Value

$219.01

PnL

+$2.21

Record

47%

500-558 (1058)

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR

Suns

Invested

$204

Value

$196

PnL

-$8

Record

10%

88-785 (873)

sentrio<$100

Clippers

Invested

$35.52

Value

$36.25

PnL

+$0.72

Record

34%

233-457 (690)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Suns

Invested

$37.6

Value

$24.81

PnL

-$0.54

Record

49%

444-470 (914)

Research grade

AvoidSuns at 50%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Suns

6 of 13 top traders (46%)Underdog side (market favors Clippers 51%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

-3 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Fresh

11h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

42% of non-arb traders are on Suns. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Suns) and the top 1000 (12 on Clippers) disagree here.

whaleClippers 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrClippers 71% · 7

Diverging

Hand-pickedSuns 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Clippers 58% · 12

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Suns wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance51.7%

49.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$93.24

Max Loss

-$100.00

193.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.