Lakers vs. Hawks: O/U 231.5

10 of 14 top Polymarket traders hold Over (71%) · Over at 53¢ · $28K held · ends Nov 10

Over53¢Under47¢Ends Tue, Nov 10, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 71%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$27.8K

Combined PnL

$748.56

Smart Money Entry

55.6¢ → 52.5¢

-5% since entry · 10 traders

Research grade

AvoidOver at 53%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

10 of 14 top traders (71%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Over53%

Under48%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under4 traders

Total Value$11.2K

Total Shares23,533

Combined PnL+$808.63

Over10 traders

Total Value$15.3K

Total Shares25,535

Combined PnL-$60.07

Under — 29%Over — 71%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
JO JoeyAroyyOOCTR	Underavg 44¢	$10.2K	$11.0K	+$808.55	0% 0-42 (42)
HO HomeRunHazard	Overavg 56¢	$8.0K	$7.6K	-$404.43	30% 29-67 (96)
HI hi774c	Overavg 56¢	$5.6K	$6.0K	+$350	3% 9-249 (258)
nigiri99ARB<$100	Overavg 53.6¢	$1.9K	$1.3K	-$37.42	43% 28-37 (65)
└ Over leg	Overavg 53.6¢	$671.15	$656.78	-$14.37
└ Under leg	Underavg 47.8¢	$632.93	$628.34	-$23.05
FL Flaznorp	Overavg 52¢	$835.58	$843.61	+$8.03	52% 242-224 (466)
RN1	Overavg 53.7¢	$402.5	$393.75	-$8.75	54% 233-201 (434)
VI vibing123	Overavg 53¢	$265	$262.5	-$2.5	2% 5-300 (305)
SN SnakeBall	Overavg 53¢	$210.17	$208.18	-$1.98	45% 38-46 (84)
MA MadridTimeCTR	Underavg 46¢	$165.7	$167.5	+$1.8	25% 86-262 (348)
BO BoomLaLa<$100	Overavg 53¢	$53	$53.5	+$0.5	10% 11-104 (115)
BI biying99999<$100	Overavg 53¢	$29.68	$29.4	-$0.28	6% 2-34 (36)
OM omnibus-076daaCTR<$100	Underavg 42.9¢	$28.33	$26.73	-$1.6	32% 68-143 (211)
GH ghorrock<$100	Overavg 56.7¢	$14.6	$6.47	-$0.61	53% 86-75 (161)
AU auros2<$100	Overavg 54¢	$5.45	$5.4	-$0.05	—
LI LimousinCTR<$100	Underavg 43¢	$2.15	$2.03	-$0.12	24% 90-282 (372)

JoeyAroyyOOCTR

Under

Invested

$10,164.64

Value

$11.0K

PnL

+$808.55

Record

0-42 (42)

HomeRunHazard

Over

Invested

$8,008.86

Value

$7.6K

PnL

-$404.43

Record

30%

29-67 (96)

hi774c

Over

Invested

$5,600

Value

$6.0K

PnL

+$350

Record

9-249 (258)

nigiri99ARB<$100

Over

Invested

$1,895.99

Value

$1.3K

PnL

-$37.42

Record

43%

28-37 (65)

Both legs:

Over$671.1553.6¢-$14.37

Under$632.9347.8¢-$23.05

Flaznorp

Over

Invested

$835.58

Value

$843.61

PnL

+$8.03

Record

52%

242-224 (466)

RN1

Over

Invested

$402.5

Value

$393.75

PnL

-$8.75

Record

54%

233-201 (434)

vibing123

Over

Invested

$265

Value

$262.5

PnL

-$2.5

Record

5-300 (305)

SnakeBall

Over

Invested

$210.17

Value

$208.18

PnL

-$1.98

Record

45%

38-46 (84)

MadridTimeCTR

Under

Invested

$165.7

Value

$167.5

PnL

+$1.8

Record

25%

86-262 (348)

BoomLaLa<$100

Over

Invested

$53

Value

$53.5

PnL

+$0.5

Record

10%

11-104 (115)

biying99999<$100

Over

Invested

$29.68

Value

$29.4

PnL

-$0.28

Record

2-34 (36)

omnibus-076daaCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$28.33

Value

$26.73

PnL

-$1.6

Record

32%

68-143 (211)

ghorrock<$100

Over

Invested

$14.6

Value

$6.47

PnL

-$0.61

Record

53%

86-75 (161)

auros2<$100

Over

Invested

$5.45

Value

$5.4

PnL

-$0.05

Record

—

LimousinCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$2.15

Value

$2.03

PnL

-$0.12

Record

24%

90-282 (372)

Research grade

AvoidOver at 53%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Over

10 of 14 top traders (71%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance54.7%

52.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$82.67

Max Loss

-$100.00

182.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.